Sen. Jeffords on Verge of Bolting GOP

Sen. James M. Jeffords of Vermont told President Bush and Senate colleagues Tuesday that he is close to leaving the Republican Party, a move that would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats and potentially jeopardize President Bush’s legislative agenda.

Jeffords said he would announce his plans today amid frantic efforts from leaders of both parties--including Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney--to sway him.

Republicans continued to express hope that Jeffords ultimately would decide to remain with the party. But Tuesday night, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said he hoped that Jeffords would follow through and bolt the GOP. Top Senate Democratic aides expressed even more confidence, saying they expect Jeffords to declare himself an independent and throw his support behind the Democrats.

That would make Daschle majority leader and put Democrats in charge of the Senate, which has been divided 50-50 between the parties.

Most immediately, Democrats could have significantly greater influence in shaping the tax cut legislation that had been steaming toward final passage in Congress this week. And in the weeks and months to come, it could mean that, instead of focusing on the energy plan Bush unveiled last week, the Senate might consider proposals to add a prescription drug benefit to Medicare or strengthen the rights of patients in managed-care health plans. Also, the already-slow pace of confirmation for Bush nominees for the judiciary and Cabinet agencies could come to a virtual halt.

As Jeffords left the Senate chamber late Tuesday, he declined to comment on his intentions. “You’ll have an answer tomorrow,” he told reporters.

Sources familiar with his thinking said he spread the word among colleagues Tuesday that he was on the verge of quitting the GOP; he also delivered that message to Bush.

But lawmakers from both parties were reluctant to make firm predictions about his final decision because Jeffords is notorious for agonizing over decisions and often changing his mind.

Indeed, members of Jeffords’ own staff said they were not sure of his plans, and even the senator himself said he was not “100% decided” as he departed.

Jeffords’ deliberations were largely triggered by his strained relationship with the White House, which was angered when he opposed Bush’s signature $1.6-trillion tax cut plan as too large.

Senate Democrats approached Jeffords in recent weeks about leaving the GOP, and a statement released by the senator’s office Monday pointedly refused to rule out that possibility.

Jeffords traveled to the White House on Tuesday for a one-on-one meeting in the Oval Office with Bush, who sought to persuade him to remain a Republican.

A White House spokesman issued a “no comment” about the meeting. Jeffords would say only that it was “a good meeting” and that “I let [the president] know the status.”

Cheney also made a personal plea, meeting with Jeffords just off the Senate floor at midday. The two served in the House together in the 1980s.

Senate leaders from both parties also spent much of the day pressing their cases with the wavering lawmaker.

“He’s being wooed, I’m sure, by both sides,” said Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.). The two are friends--until recently they sang in a quartet together--but Lott said Jeffords had not told him of any plans to leave the party.

Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho) said Jeffords has “visited with a good number of folks on the floor” to discuss making such a change. Although some Republicans had scoffed Monday at the possibility of a defection, Craig said Tuesday that the Republican caucus “is concerned.”

So concerned that GOP leaders stepped up efforts to recruit Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, a conservative Democrat who has been considered a ripe target for conversion to the GOP because of his support for Bush’s tax cut plan. Miller, however, recently reaffirmed his loyalty to the Democrats.

The uncertainty over Jeffords added to the political tumult in the Senate that began unfolding last year when, for the first time, an election produced a 50-50 split.

To navigate this uncharted territory, GOP leaders crafted a power-sharing arrangement with Democrats in which committee memberships and resources would be split evenly. Republicans retained control of chairmanships because of Cheney’s tie-breaking vote. If Jeffords were to switch, the power-sharing arrangement would dissolve. Democrats would immediately displace Republicans as chairmen on committees, giving them crucial agenda-setting power.

Democrats last controlled the Senate in 1994, except for a 17-day period earlier this year before Bush and Cheney took office.

Daschle, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and others have been pursuing Jeffords in earnest for several weeks, offering him plum committee chairmanships, according to Democratic sources.

Such enticements could be key to recruiting Jeffords, who might otherwise be reluctant to give up his job as chairman of the Senate committee that oversees education.

But Jeffords’ spokesman had said Monday that the senator’s decision would not hinge on such assignments. Indeed, some of his colleagues said he is more likely motivated by other factors, including his poor relationship with the White House.

Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) said that he has had a number of conversations with Jeffords in recent days and that he believes his fellow GOP moderate is frustrated by his party’s direction and leadership.

“Here in the Senate, it’s a tight, strong group of conservatives that call all the shots,” Chafee said.

Jeffords, by contrast, is the latest in a long line of moderate Vermont Republicans. He supports abortion rights, is pro-environment and is a champion of boosting education spending.

He was first elected to the House in 1974. He first won his Senate seat in 1988 and was easily reelected to another six-year term in November.

He was part of a group of moderates from both parties that forced the administration to scale Bush’s planned tax cut back to $1.35 trillion. Jeffords, in turn, was upset that the White House would not guarantee funding for a special education program he helped create while in the House.

Since then, Jeffords has been riled by a number of perceived White House slights. He was not invited to a recent White House ceremony honoring the nation’s teacher of the year, even though the teacher was from Vermont and even though education is Jeffords’ signature issue.

Jeffords has also voiced concern that the White House may attempt to punish him by derailing legislation that would continue price supports for dairy farmers in Vermont and other Northeastern states.

White House officials have dismissed such suggestions, saying penalizing lawmakers for their positions is not the president’s style.