Riordan a Fragile Leader in GOP Race

Several months ago, Richard Riordan set out to explore a run for governor. Since then, he has raised millions of dollars, traveled thousands of miles and captured dozens of endorsements.

But rather than secure his position atop the Republican field, the former Los Angeles mayor has left a trail dotted with question marks.

On Tuesday, Riordan will declare his candidacy at El Pueblo de Los Angeles, the city’s birthplace. His deep pockets, relatively high name recognition and strong support from leading Republicans make him the favorite to win the March primary.

At the same time, however, his penchant for gaffes, thin party resume and struggle to assemble a campaign team are all vulnerabilities that make Riordan a decidedly fragile front-runner.

The major question--whether Riordan’s assets will outweigh his liabilities--is something even his supporters ponder. Come December, said one advisor, the Riordan campaign could be a juggernaut or a sinking ship.

The candidate’s greatest strength has always been a sense that he would pose the toughest challenge to incumbent Democrat Gray Davis. For many Republicans, desperate to end the party’s long losing streak, that matters more than Riordan’s moderate positions on touchstones like gun control and legalized abortion, both of which he supports.

“As long as that perception remains, my hunch is Republicans will make their peace with Richard Riordan because their hate for Gray is so visceral, and they want to win so much,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, who teaches political science at USC. “If, however, the dynamics change, Riordan could be in real trouble.”

That is the challenge for his two Republican rivals, who have their own strengths and weaknesses. Secretary of State Bill Jones has an impressive record of accomplishment but little money to spend. Wealthy financier Bill Simon Jr. has no political experience but plenty of cash.

Together, that might make a potent combination: Simon could finance millions of dollars in anti-Riordan ads to spread the doubts that Jones has worked hard to sow.

That said, the ex-mayor has his own personal fortune and is expected to spend lavishly on self-promotional TV spots, starting in January. Privately, Riordan has said he plans to kick in little or none of his own money early on, but he promises to spend whatever it takes to win.

He’s Seen as Effective Mayor

Unlike the legion of wealthy candidates who have tried and failed to win statewide office before him, Riordan starts the race with substantial credibility as the former leader of the nation’s second-biggest city.

“He’s been through earthquakes, dealt with all sorts of issues and crises,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who managed Riordan’s 1997 reelection campaign but has no part in his gubernatorial effort. “He’s seen as a good, effective mayor who brought a new level of public safety to the city and helped the economy take off.”

That is a record the campaign plans to showcase, starting with a made-for-television bus tour of the city tentatively set for next week.

But Riordan’s introduction to the rest of the state has not been nearly as auspicious.

For months, the former mayor has kept a low profile as he conducted a sort of crash course in California, shying away from debates and avoiding substantive statements as he spoke mostly to small crowds in friendly settings. Still, he has stumbled more than once.

Discussing the state’s projected budget deficit in Sacramento, Riordan was forced to admit that the $20-billion figure he used was one he conjured up himself. In Redding, after touring a plant that makes insulation, he extolled the “future of information technology”--seeming to mix up fiberglass with fiber optics.

Casual Style Could Hurt Him

The 71-year-old Riordan is a well-read and intellectually curious man, who had a lengthy and prosperous career in business before entering politics relatively late in life. But even admirers note his lazy way with detail and freewheeling speaking style, perils for any candidate running a statewide campaign.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” said Dan Schnur, a veteran communications strategist who recently left Riordan’s campaign because of differences over strategy. “The fact Dick Riordan hasn’t been a politician his whole life and is more casual about the way he acts and the things he says provides a mirror-opposite contrast with a political automaton like Gray Davis.

“On the other hand, a funny little aside that makes everyone in the room laugh can turn out to be cannon fodder for [an] attack ad.”

Kevin Spillane, political director of the Riordan campaign, said the candidate is simply facing the heightened scrutiny that comes with being “such a strong contender and well-known personality.”

“There’s something ridiculous about people challenging his ability to be a statewide candidate or to do the job,” he said.

For some Republicans, the greater concern is Riordan’s long-standing Democratic ties and the complications they have caused as he organizes his campaign.

Jones has repeatedly attacked Riordan for the more than $1 million he contributed in the last 20 years to Democratic candidates and causes. Beyond that, virtually all of Riordan’s key political advisors until recently have been Democrats.

The relationships made obvious sense in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3-1 margin. But as a candidate for the GOP nomination, Riordan has been forced to recruit a team of Republican strangers, leading to personality clashes and other tensions that unsettled the campaign and led several aides to quit. The fact that Riordan continues to seek advice on the side from old Democratic allies and Hollywood friends has not helped.

Last week, Riordan announced a slate of Republican consultants led by veteran ad man Don Sipple and pollster Fred Steeper. He also appointed Ron Hartwig as the campaign’s “chief executive officer” in charge of overall operations.

Hartwig, a public relations executive, has never run a political campaign. But he gained Riordan’s trust working on a number of City Hall projects. His main job is to regiment the stubbornly undisciplined candidate.

Some Backers Distance Themselves

The upheaval, missteps and Riordan’s continued dalliance with Democrats have hardly produced panic. But there is nervousness in GOP circles. Some of those who helped coax Riordan into the race, including boosters at the White House, have lately sought to distance themselves from his campaign.

Others suggest that the tumult--or growing pains, as campaign insiders prefer--is part of a natural progression for a candidate running statewide for the first time.

“It’s always a challenge to build a campaign team,” said Carrick, who knows from personal experience. He helped rescue Dianne Feinstein from the chaos that nearly sank her 1990 candidacy for governor at roughly this same stage of the campaign.

Several months later, with all the kinks worked out, Feinstein romped to the Democratic nomination. She lost a close race in the general election.