HOW THEY MATCH UP

When USC has the ball: With their running game sputtering, the Trojans would be wise to avoid linebacker Robert Thomas and the heart of the UCLA defense. And although they might test the outside with options and pitches to reserve tailback Chris Howard, most of the burden falls on quarterback Carson Palmer and his receivers. The Bruins believe they can stop the run with their base defense and will focus on pressuring Palmer. Strong safety Jason Stephens has missed the last two games with a foot injury and is questionable.

When UCLA has the ball: Even without DeShaun Foster, the Bruins want to establish the run, as evidenced by Akil Harris’ 29 carries against Oregon last week. Cory Paus threw for 321 yards in that game. Also, expect Coach Bob Toledo to call a few of the trick plays that have become his trademark in this rivalry. The USC defense has paid attention to other teams that have defeated UCLA by concentrating on the run and forcing the Bruins to win with their passing game. That could leave cornerbacks Kris Richard and Antuan Simmons on their own much of the time.

Key to the game: If this turns into a defensive struggle, offensive mistakes could make the difference. UCLA has a minus-one turnover margin, thanks mainly to Foster’s fumbles. The USC offense has improved greatly from last season and the Trojans stand at plus-11.

Fast fact: This has been a rivalry of streaks in the last 10 years. UCLA won eight in a row and USC has won the last two. Still, the average margin of victory has been only a touchdown and three of those games have been decided by three points or fewer.

The pick: USC is on a roll and has learned to win close games. But a struggling UCLA still has the better talent on paper--even without Foster--and that advantage should translate onto the field. The edge: Bruins.

The line: UCLA by 31/2.