The Times Film Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of Nov. 16-18:

*

Highlights:

* “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” is likely to be the most profitable movie since “Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace.”

* “The Wash” should bring a modest profit to Lion’s Gate after ancillaries are factored in.

* It’s difficult to predict where “Amelie” will end up in the U.S., though it is already very profitable from the $40 million in its native France.

*

$$ Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

*--*

Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Harry Potter Warner Bros. 1 $130 $350 Monsters, Inc. Disney/Pixar 2 115 220

*--*

*

$ Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

*--*

Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Training Day WB/Roadshow 12 $45 $77 Shallow Hal Fox 3 40 65 Thirteen Ghosts WB/Sony 10 20 42 Amelie Miramax 11 10 20

*--*

*

? Tossups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)

*--*

Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions K-Pax Universal/Intermedia 7 $48 The One Sony/Revolution 6 49 Domestic Disturbance Paramount 4 53 Life as a House *ew Line 9 17 The Wash Lion’s Gate 8 4

Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions K-Pax $52 The One 46 Domestic Disturbance 45 Life as a House 16 The Wash 8

*--*

*

Losers (less than $5 million)

*--*

Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Heist WB/Franchise 5 35 24

*--*

*