The Times Film Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of Nov. 23-25:

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Highlights:

* The pot for “Spy Game” is split between Universal and Beacon Pictures.

* “Black Knight” may not quite make it to break-even because it’s unlikely to have strong overseas appeal.

* Disney probably will squeak into the black with “Out Cold” after ancillary revenue is counted.

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$$ Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Harry Potter Warner Bros. 1 $130 $350 Monsters, Inc. Disney/Pixar 2 115 240

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$ Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Shallow Hal Fox 5 $45 $68 Amelie Miramax 11 10 22

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? Tossups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Spy Game Universal/Beacon 3 $92 K-PAX Universal/Intermedia 12 48 The One Sony/Revolution 10 49 Domestic Disturbance Paramount 7 53 Life as a House *ew Line 9 17 Out Cold Disney 6 11

Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions Spy Game $75 K-PAX 52 The One 45 Domestic Disturbance 45 Life as a House 16 Out Cold 15

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Losers (less than $5 million)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Black Knight Fox 4 $50 $35 Heist Warner Bros./Franchise 8 35 25

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