Will They Buy It?

Will Americans be remotely interested in the all-new 2002 Dodge Ram pickup while monitoring the latest on Osama bin Laden?

Can marketers work people into a frenzy over the redesigned Audi A4 or the new Pontiac Vibe when CNN is likely to capture a big chunk of the desired demographic from the commercial network on which the ad campaign is scheduled to debut?

And with most campaigns for September and October new-model launches having been set back a couple of weeks because of television programming delays, how well will manufacturers fare when ads aimed at generating excitement about new cars and trucks start bumping into the start of the holiday season, when many put auto buying on hold?

A recession already was on the way when the terrorist attacks on the East Coast changed things in the automotive world, as they changed things in almost every walk of life in this country.

So far, auto makers are proceeding with the launch campaigns they had planned before Sept. 11; with the resumption of fall television schedules, their marketing efforts are just starting to reach their intended audiences.

But as a dozen auto makers ready a dozen launch campaigns, there is consternation where there was supposed to be confidence.

Amarketing campaign for a new-vehicle launch starts at $25 million and can easily rise to double that. “You don’t even think about a successful launch for less,” said one Chrysler Group insider who declined to be identified because of auto industry policies prohibiting disclosure of advertising spending.

The Torrance-based U.S. subsidiaries of Japanese auto makers Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. have launched key new vehicles--redesigns of the Camry and Altima, respectively. And each is spending more than on any product campaign in its history. Ad industry insiders say the combined total could easily top the $200-million mark.

For that kind of money, auto companies seek to buy exposure on broadcast and cable television, on radio and in major popular magazines and newspapers, and expect to reach tens of million of people.

The aim, particularly in television commercials, is to make a message so visually compelling that it stands out from all the others.

General Motors Corp.’s Pontiac division had hoped to do so by debuting its new campaign during the Emmy Awards show, which was to have been broadcast Sept. 16 but now is scheduled for Sunday, a 21-day delay.

The campaign, which reportedly cost $30 million, plays off the popularity of staged, unscripted programming by giving everyday drivers the keys to a Pontiac for a week and turning them loose on the road. The vehicles were outfitted with tiny cameras and were accompanied by a professional crew to tape virtually everything the drivers and their companions did. The results were winnowed to the best 30 seconds or so.

Filming started before the attacks, and the first two spots were done in Los Angeles and New York. But many of the people chosen for the commercials wanted to drive to Las Vegas, so a lot of film was shot there as well, said Gary Topolewski, creative director for D’Arcy Advertising, Pontiac’s agency.

The campaign’s tag line is “Pontiac Excitement, Pass It On,” but by the time commercials featuring Las Vegas air, everyone in the U.S. will be all too aware that on the now half-empty Vegas Strip, a lot of the excitement has gone.

So how do marketers capture the attention of people who worry that the other shoe, if and when it drops, might drop on them?

“The overriding truth right now is that no one knows for sure what to do, but everyone knows it’s going to be difficult to get a big response to a new car campaign,” said Roy Adler, a Pepperdine University marketing professor and specialist in consumer psychology.

“When people are watching Fox News because they want to know if someone blew up the town next door, they are not going to be seeing the traditional programming where car ads will be showing,” he said.

The U.S. was heading into a recession before the attacks, Adler said, “and in recessions everyone grabs their wallets with both hands anyhow. The fears engendered by events of Sept. 11 are just going to add to recessionary fears.”

In the auto industry, concerns are masked--at least for public consumption--by hearty assurances that Americans and their economy are resilient and that people want to see a return to normality.

Toyota, for example, got the Camry launch underway in August and believes that sufficient enthusiasm had built before Sept. 11 to mitigate the effects.

And Nissan, which launched the Altima just days before the attacks, says it got enough positive notice from early media reviews to create a buzz that should sustain sales.

“The product is so new and so different for us that we’re confident it will still make an impact in the mid-size-sedan segment,” said Jed Connelly, executive vice president for sales and marketing.

But in unguarded moments the uncertainty comes through.

“The question is: How big will the segment be?” Connelly said. “There’s no reference book for us to go back to. Nothing’s the same.”

Understanding and coping with the changed landscape “is a daily discussion for us at General Motors and at Pontiac,” said Annette Lloyd, advertising and promotions director for the Pontiac division.

Anne Belec, vice president of marketing for Ford Motor Co.’s Lincoln and Mercury brands, said consumer confidence is the key: “The challenges now are tough. We don’t expect to be able to do things the traditional way.”

That is especially true for brands such as Lincoln, whose luxury products are not vehicles people must have for basic transportation.

The newest models from Lincoln and archrival Cadillac are so-called luxe trucks that mate five-passenger sport-utility vehicle cabins with pickup truck beds, are loaded with traditional luxury features and carry price tags that top $50,000. Both hit dealerships in January, and if there is to be a significant drop in consumer acceptance of automotive marketing messages, most analysts believe it first will hit vehicles such as these.

Automotive marketing consultant George Peterson of AutoPacific Inc. in Tustin believes that consumers’ attention already is swinging back to “normal things,” and that by January, “with the understanding that sales overall will be reduced because of economic concerns, new products will have a good chance.”

One positive from a marketing standpoint is that “it is still a level playing field--a couple feet underwater, but still level,” said Herbert Tay, head of consultant A.T. Kearney Inc.’s West Coast auto practice.

Belec and others suggest that changes already in the works will help auto makers’ marketing messages penetrate: greater reliance on targeted direct mail, ads in special-interest publications and on cable, and Internet marketing campaigns aimed at engaging consumers in chat-room discussions with company representatives, including top designers, engineers and executives.

One thing auto makers can’t do is wrap themselves in the American flag to try to sell cars--the backlash could be devastating.

An e-mail campaign last week by Santa Monica Volkswagen’s Internet sales manager Bridget Griffin Stennis suggested that the recipient shared the dealership’s concern about the state of the economy in the aftermath of the terror attacks. The message offered “our deepest condolences to the victims of the September 11 tragedy,” urged a return to “as much normalcy as humanly possible” and offered “to help you with your decision for a new car.”

It drew this from one recipient:

“I object to the poor taste of your e-mail ... sent to specifically sell a car. Extremely bad form. Your firm won’t be on any list to call for future business from me,” the irate potential customer wrote in an e-mail to the dealership.

Stennis said that was the only negative response from 750 e-mail messages she sent. Most respondents, she said, appreciated the offer or let her know they remained concerned about the economy and were not ready to make a decision.

GM received little criticism last month when it launched a no-interest loan program it calls “Keep America Rolling.” The campaign was announced after an unprecedented meeting of top government and auto industry representatives in Michigan held in response to President Bush’s plea that Americans help the post-attack economy by continuing to spend.

The offer of interest-free financing on most 2001-and 2002-model GM cars and low-interest loans on most of the company’s trucks was quickly followed by similar plans from Ford, Chrysler Group and the U.S. subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corp. of Japan.

Early reports suggest that Americans were responding, as sales at new-car dealerships, especially those of GM, Ford and Chrysler, started climbing back to normal levels after sharp declines in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

“I think the strong brands will weather this better than the weaker ones without as much name recognition,” said Dan Gorrell, vice president of Strategic Vision, a San Diego auto marketing consultant.

“The impact is starting to trail off,” he said. “We were interviewing people for a client just a few days after the attack, and I was amazed that people that soon were interested in hearing about a new car. They were telling us they just wanted to get their minds off of things.”

Consumers “want to get out and laugh again, to have some fun,” said auto industry consultant Chris Cedergren of Nextrend in Thousand Oaks. “We are social animals, and we can only stay cooped up in the house for so long. Sept. 11 was horrible, but not too many will say, ‘I’m not going to buy that new car I wanted because 6,000 people died.’ That won’t bring the 6,000 back.”

Cedergren also expressed few worries about the effects of a recessionary economy:

“Consumers today are programmed differently than their parents. These aren’t Depression and World War II kids. They’re boomers and Gen-Xers, and they’ve had great lives and are used to getting what they want, pretty much when they want it.”

That’s a hope most in the auto industry cling to.

“We are seeing a little uptick in sales each week, and we hope people are getting back to some degree of normalcy,” said Mike Rosenau, spokesman for Chrysler sales and marketing.

“But none of us can say we have the answer. This is something that has never happened before.”

*

Times staff writer John O’Dell covers autos for Highway 1 and the Business section. He can be reached at john.odell@latimes.com.

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On the Launch Pad

Several significant new or redesigned cars and trucks are set to hit the U.S. market this fall and winter. The recent terrorist attacks have marketers concerned about launch successes, given the sudden drop in consumer demand.