Consumer Confidence Likely to Be Weaker

Economic reports this week will give a picture of consumer confidence in the weeks since the terrorist attacks and before the United States’ military response.

With unemployment at a four-year high and economic growth the weakest in eight years, the added weight of the Sept. 11 attacks is expected to have sapped optimism that the economy would rebound soon, leaving malls, restaurants and auto lots with few customers.

Retail sales probably declined 0.8% in September after rising 0.3% in August, analysts said in advance of Friday’s report from the Commerce Department. Excluding auto dealers, sales probably fell 0.5% last month, analysts said.

A 0.8% decline in overall sales would be the largest since April 2000, when falling prices held down stores’ receipts.

Consumer confidence probably weakened for a fourth straight month. A report Friday is expected to show the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 76 in early October from 81.8 in September, analysts said. Last month’s reading was the lowest since November 1993.

Other economic reports coming this week:

* Thursday, the Commerce Department will report wholesalers’ inventories in August, as well as prices for imported goods for September.

* Thursday, the Labor Department will report on first-time claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ended Oct. 6.

* Friday, the Labor Department will issue the producer price index for September. It rose 0.4% in August.