The Political Fortunes of Bush and Davis Just Switched Places

Before the Sept. 11 attack, President Bush surely would have faced an unfriendly welcome in Sacramento, where he is scheduled to arrive today for a visit.

Gov. Gray Davis’ spin machine would have been out in full force, linking Bush to the state’s energy problems and an economy that has underperformed. The press would have duly noted that California’s governor, should he be reelected, would be a formidable challenger to a president, who barely scraped by last November.

Here’s reality, post-Sept. 11: Bush, now riding high in the polls as he leads the counterattack on terrorism, not only is sure of getting a warm reception from Californians but will find a cooperative governor to boot. For Davis needs Bush in ways he didn’t five weeks ago. For one thing, Davis needs Washington’s help in stimulating an even weaker economy. And he needs the president’s assurance that the feds will come to California’s rescue should terrorism strike here in the West. Davis also needs the president’s bully pulpit to encourage consumers to start spending money. The two men still have their differences, but presumably Davis is smart enough to know that the public isn’t in a mood for the blame game.

There are two morals to this story. One is that five weeks constitutes a lifetime in politics.

Too often, political analysts see things in snapshots: Who’s hot, who’s not.

Five weeks ago, Davis was hot. The summer of blackouts never materialized; the governor had crept back ahead in his bid for a second term.

Meanwhile, in Washington, the Bush agenda had fizzled to the point that some Republicans privately fretted over how to make Bush seem and act more presidential.

But the two men’s fortunes have since reversed. Bush now comes across as a calm, collected leader. Davis, on other hand, looks like the proverbial drowning man, flailing, trying desperately to appear in control of matters (a national recession, a war) far beyond his reach.

Last week alone, Davis called for an economic summit, ordered the state to prepare for a 15% budget cut, hinted at a special session of the Legislature and led a Capitol rally to honor the victims of Sept. 11. And Davis still found time to veto spending measures left and right.

Somebody, please, throw the man a glass of water.

The second lesson would be that when opportunity knocks, the wise politician answers.

For months, the Bush administration has struggled with California, and for the most part it’s been the case of a round peg and a square hole: The conservative Bush agenda and the more progressive California electorate didn’t mesh.

But now, with everyone’s security at the forefront, suddenly the administration and California seem not to be such ideological opposites.

Next? Airline safety is on everyone’s mind, and Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta just happens to be a San Jose native.

Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman, a native of California’s Central Valley, should be in the state to counter stories of how anthrax is not only a danger directly to humans but also could devastate agriculture.

To underscore its compassionate side, the Bush administration would do well to send First Lady Laura Bush to the state to spread the message of tolerance toward California’s Afghan and Muslim communities.

One other thing: These visits should be about leadership, not politics--no spin, no Republican agenda.

It would be a welcome relief and a needed change in a world no longer the same.