After the Taliban, What?

The air war in Afghanistan continues, the ground war has barely begun and the duration of both is uncertain. Yet now is the time to consider the makeup of a future government in the landlocked Asian nation.

Whatever regime succeeds the Taliban must not provide a haven for terrorists like Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the Sept. 11 attacks. Further, it must meet at least minimum human rights standards, including letting women work and girls attend school.

The key to a new government will be the Pushtuns, the country’s biggest ethnic group. One reason the Northern Alliance army, a Taliban foe, should be stopped from entering the capital, Kabul, and proclaiming itself the new government is that it consists of ethnic groups unacceptable to the Pushtuns. If it tries to impose itself it will launch yet another descent into warlord battles of the type that plagued Afghanistan after Soviet troops were driven out more than a decade ago. Internecine fighting, plunder and rape became so intolerable that Taliban soldiers were welcomed because they promised peace.

The Northern Alliance is no more a monolith than the Taliban. Both contain elements that several years ago talked informally of ending the fighting but were unable to agree on what role the Northern Alliance might play in a government. A new regime might well include Taliban members; not all are religious fanatics who punish men whose beards are too short or stone women on the streets. Not all support Bin Laden and his fellow Arabs, who are not Afghans.

The Taliban leaders who have sheltered Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network can have no place in a new government, but some members at lower levels may be able to help with the rebuilding. That’s a point made by Pakistan, which backed the Taliban takeover and wants a friendly government on its western border to balance its eastern neighbor, India, with which it has fought three wars.

Mohammad Zaher Shah, overthrown as king in 1973, could be a symbolic leader for the next rulers. He is a Pushtun and 87 years old and probably would be acceptable to other ethnic groups such as Tajiks and Hazaras. He ruled for 40 years, a relative period of calm in a nation that for centuries was a pawn in contests between Britain and Czarist Russia. The king was overthrown by a cousin, who later was ousted by a pro-Soviet ruler. In 1979 Soviet troops invaded, beginning a tragic period that made rubble of large swaths of the nation and ended in a humiliating defeat for Moscow.

The United Nations, including peacekeeping troops, will have a key role in rebuilding Afghanistan. Giving food to millions who are malnourished or starving will be the first priority, even before a government is formed. Peacekeeping troops cannot become an occupation army; Afghanistan has an unblemished record of repelling invaders. Nor can any government be perceived as imposed by an outsider, be it the United States, Pakistan or Iran.

Afghan history is rife with battles between tribes and armies that switched sides and cut deals when the time was right. The large amounts of foreign aid that will be needed for economic and social development after 22 years of fighting should go far to persuade members of different ethnic groups to form a government that does not terrorize people inside or outside the nation’s borders.