Bush II and Fox Can Build on the Bush I and Salinas Foundation

Two Presidents Bush--George H.W., who was elected in 1988, and George W., who was elected in 2000--have made relations with Mexico a priority. Their Mexican counterparts--Carlos Salinas de Gortari and, now, Vicente Fox--have put relations with the United States at the top of their presidential agendas.

Bush I and Salinas turned their personal relationship into a productive and practical bilateral agreement--the North American Free Trade Agreement--that has served both countries well. The challenge today is for Bush II and Fox to use the personal relationship between them, and the new opportunities from Mexico’s democratization, to fashion a new path-breaking North American accord to address the important items that remain on their shared agenda: migration, drug trafficking and energy issues.

Bush I and Salinas sought to develop a framework of reliable institutions and procedures to foster trade. NAFTA succeeded spectacularly on its own terms. It has not solved every issue on the bilateral agenda. Yet U.S.-Mexico trade has quadrupled since its enactment. And the means for dispute resolution have been strengthened and are working, despite difficulties.

Bush II and Fox already have agreed on a key lesson from NAFTA’s success: that building a legal framework for government-to-government relations can be effective. NAFTA makes it possible for trade and investment to grow, and for disputes to be settled without high-level politicization or diplomatic intervention. Bilateral migration relations could be addressed first, creating a more normal lawful flow at the same time that routine procedures are developed to address the disputes that no doubt will still emerge over migration.

The style of the two pairs of presidents exhibits similarities and differences. Bush I and II launched their political careers in Texas and each came to understand Mexico’s importance to the United States and its economic, political and demographic future. Each Bush met his Mexican counterpart soon after the election. Bush I saw Salinas even before his presidential inauguration. Bush II’s visit to Fox was his first international trip as head of state.

Bush I was a seasoned international actor. Improved relations with Mexico and NAFTA’s signing were among the many significant international changes during his presidency, which was also marked by the end of the Cold War in Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In contrast, Bush II is a novice in international affairs. Mexico is the only country for which he has a personal “feel.” U.S. relations are troubled with European allies, Russia and China. U.S. relations with Mexico are warm, cordial and familiar. Bush II and Fox understand each other easily as practical problem-solvers. Mexican issues appeal to Bush II because he understands them better than other international issues and because he thinks that he can leave a positive mark on them.

Bush I’s international team had a strong Texan seasoning, retaining the president’s link to his adoptive Texas. U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher provided early and continuing support and expertise for the president’s interest in Mexico.

Bush II’s international team has many old Washington hands but none with much experience or interest in Mexico, except for U.S. Special Trade Representative Robert Zoellick.

Even many U.S. officials designated for second-echelon posts pertinent to Mexico in Bush II’s team have negligible experience with Mexico. The newly appointed heads of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service and the Drug Enforcement Administration as well as the designate for assistant secretary of State for inter-American affairs no doubt have many talents but knowledge of Mexico is not one of them.

Bush I was one of many Mexicanists in his administration. Bush II so far is the only Mexicanist in his. One risk for near-term developments in U.S.-Mexico relations is the lack of Mexicanist depth in the current administration, given the president’s priorities and the very high expectations for improving bilateral relations.

Salinas and Fox also display similarities and differences in their approach to the United States. Each speaks English fluently; each can tell funny jokes, even in English. Salinas was popular in Washington and on Wall Street, as is Fox now. But Fox already has developed a wider appeal in the United States, including among Mexican Americans. Fox won a free and contested election from the opposition. Salinas became president as one in a long line of presidents from the same party in an election marred by accusations of fraud.

In 1989 as in 2001, Washington portrayed Mexico as a model to be emulated in Latin America. But the earlier model only applied to economics. Salinas presided over a political regime that the novelist Mario Vargas Llosa called the “perfect dictatorship,” given its skillful use of power to sustain authoritarian rule. The current Mexican model weds free politics to free markets--a more internationally attractive recipe.

In the late 1980s, U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade amounted to about $70 billion. Now it approaches $300 billion. Mexico has become a more important U.S. trading partner than Japan or Germany. Salinas had to become a salesman to persuade Washington of Mexico’s significance. Fox, a salesman all his life, believes that both Coca-Cola (his previous employer) and Mexico are good products to sell.

The Salinas and Fox presidencies are separated by the arrival of 4 million Mexican immigrants to the United States during the 1990s. That decade began with Mexicophobia in a California led by Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.

The new decade started with Bush II, a Republican governor from Texas seeking to stop the stampede of U.S. Latinos to the Democratic Party. Salinas attempted without success to secure the support of Mexican Americans on behalf of NAFTA. Fox has made the improvement of the legal circumstances of undocumented Mexicans in the United States a high priority.

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is on a solid foundation; it is up to Bush II and Fox to build upon it.