County’s Housing Market Expected to Weather Crisis

Ventura real estate broker Fred Evans says he has gained 5 pounds since this month’s terrorist attacks. He tends to eat more, he explains, when times are uncertain.

One client pulled the plug on her home purchase just before closing because she was afraid her work as a travel agent would dry up.

Another backed out, fearing his catering business might not cover mortgage payments in the coming months. No one wants to have fun right now, he said, and by year’s end employers could be canceling holiday parties and handing out pink slips.

A third buyer is going through with his home purchase--but not without some hand-wringing. As a military reservist, the buyer is wondering how he will enjoy a house in the suburbs if he is stationed halfway around the planet.

“There’s no question that people in escrow right now have started to get second thoughts about where the market is going, whether they’re going to get a better deal later, whether they’re still going to have a job,” Evans said.

While no countywide or regional home sales figures have been compiled since the Sept. 11 attacks, the number of buyers bowing out of deals appears small, according to real estate industry sources.

Real estate experts also say there are several reasons they think the market will persevere.

Sales volume may dip this month, they say, but prices seem to be holding. Interest rates are low and could attract enough buyers to counter the effects of those who get cold feet.

To people who are nervous about the plummeting stock market, buying a home seems like a sound investment. And, experts say, there is added security in places like Ventura County, where the demand for homes far outstrips the supply.

More than anything, regional economists and real estate experts predict that fallout from the Sept. 11 attacks, the stock market slump and the possibility of layoffs will be temporary.

Buyers stayed home in the week following the attacks, but it appears most have since resumed their search, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast Project.

“When you take a week out of a month’s activity it’s obviously going to show up in the statistics,” he said. “But we have to keep it in perspective. I think this is all just a knee-jerk reaction at the outset and it will wear out over time.”

The most recent data, from August, show room for some slack. Home sales countywide were 27% higher than a year ago, and, at $280,000, the median price for houses and condos was up 11.6% from 2000.

What actually happens could take months to play out. For now, though, every transaction tests the confidence of sellers, buyers and real estate agents.

Carmela and Tom Baldwin of Rancho Palos Verdes were considering a move to western Ventura County. Tom, an engineer, had been offered a municipal job in Santa Barbara, and the couple were looking for an affordable home large enough for their three children.

They had been searching for a few weeks when the attacks occurred. Tom turned down the job and the couple called off plans to move.

“I didn’t think it was the best time for him to be changing jobs,” said Carmela, 36, a stay-at-home mom. “There’s so much turmoil going on in the world. Just the comfort of my own house and the neighbors I have right now . . . familiarity makes you feel comfortable.”

Buyers who went through with their deals also had their reasons.

Some said they believed canceling would be akin to letting the terrorists win. Others used the timing to their advantage; agents say that some sellers are already wary of a slowing economy and have been more willing to bargain. And some buyers simply loved a particular house too much to walk away.

All three reasons explain why Mark Metzger, 34, a manager at a construction materials company, went ahead with a home purchase. Over the summer, Metzger got married and learned his job was being transferred from San Luis Obispo to Ventura on Sept. 1. On top of that, his wife became pregnant. “So we’re go, go, go--no messing around,” he said.

Days before the attacks, the couple had fallen in love with a custom-designed trilevel home in Oak View, with four bedrooms and a hot tub. It was listed for $315,000 but the seller was willing to part with it for $304,000.

In the three days leading up to the Sept. 14 closing, Metzger said he thought seriously about whether to go through with it.

“It was a little scary, but the ball was already rolling,” he said. “I felt secure with my job. It’s a strong company that has nothing to do with airlines or tourism.

“We didn’t know how things were going to turn out,” he said. “We still don’t. My thought is, you can’t go wrong buying property in California. Even if it goes down, it’s just going to go up.”