Harlan’s Holiday in Front

Trainer Ken McPeek has a dental appointment Monday. It will be a whole lot easier after Saturday’s $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, where McPeek’s Harlan’s Holiday, a model of consistency, won by 41/2 lengths to establish himself as a mild favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

In the 78th edition of the Blue Grass, Harlan’s Holiday ran the sixth slowest time over a fast track--11/8 miles in 1:512/5--and after sifting through Saturday’s prep races Mike Battaglia, the Churchill Downs linemaker, said that if the Derby were run now, he’d make the Blue Grass winner a 5-1 favorite. The rest of Battaglia’s early Derby line has Buddha and Medaglia d’Oro, the 1-2 finishers in Saturday’s Wood Memorial, at 6-1; Came Home, the Santa Anita Derby winner, at 8-1; Sunday Break, third in the Wood, 10-1; and Johannesburg, if he comes from Ireland, also at 10-1. A field of close to 20, the Derby maximum, will run in Louisville on May 4.

A number of 5-1 on a Derby favorite is hardly an endorsement. A Derby choice has never gone off that high, and the only time there was anything close on the tote board was when the entry of General Challenge and Excellent Meeting had odds of $4.80 on the dollar in 1999.

Harlan’s Holiday will enter the Derby with a solid record--six wins and four seconds in 10 starts and earnings of $1.4 million after Saturday’s $450,000 payday--but an Ohio-bred has won only one other Derby and his winning time in the Blue Grass is just another pokey effort by one of the contenders. On April 6, Came Home won the Santa Anita Derby in the slowest time for the race since 1963.

“There was some early rain that might have affected the track,” McPeek said, trying to deflect too much inspection of Harlan’s Holiday’s clocking. “They’re not going to deduct anything from my paycheck, are they?”

Booklet, who had beaten Harlan’s Holiday twice at shorter distances early this year, has now been beaten twice--in the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass--at 11/8 miles, and Saturday’s loss all but chased trainer John Ward Jr.’s colt out of the Kentucky Derby, which is run at 11/4 miles. Booklet, the 5-2 second choice, ran second in the Blue Grass, barely outlasting Ocean Sound, at 23-1, for the place.

“The Derby is the kind of decision you make four days after the race, not today,” said Ward, who won last year’s Derby with Monarchos.

“But unless there’s a lot of attrition, I think we’ll pass on the Derby. Harlan’s Holiday will be the horse to beat at Churchill. He’s gotten better with each race.”

In a six-horse field, Straight Gin ran fourth, Bob’s Image finished fifth and Azillion, the 7-2 third choice, was last, leaving jockey Corey Nakatani with the suspicion that something might be wrong with the colt. It was reported after the race that Bob’s Image, who led for almost six furlongs, had suffered a suspensory ligament injury to his left foreleg.

Harlan’s Holiday, who paid $3.40 as the favorite under Edgar Prado, can become the first horse to complete a Florida Derby-Blue Grass-Kentucky Derby triple since Spectacular Bid in 1979. He has already run twice at Churchill, finishing second in his debut last year and winning the Iroquois Stakes there in November. He has trained most of his career at Churchill, the headquarters for McPeek’s large stable.

After an opening half-mile in 47 seconds, Booklet overtook Bob’s Image as the board showed 1:114/5 for three-quarters of mile. Harlan’s Holiday, who was third early, moved up on the backstretch, passed Booklet on the bend for home and increased his advantage as Prado alternated left- and right-handed whipping through the homestretch.

Trainer James Cassidy said Ocean Sound, an Irish-bred who is winless in four U.S. starts, would run in the Derby.

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At Aqueduct in the $750,000 Wood, Buddha, making only his fourth start, beat Medaglia d’Oro by a head under a typically patient--but nerve-racking--ride from Pat Day. With Medaglia d’Oro and Sunday Break applying pressure from the outside, Day got Buddha home on the rail in a ride not unlike Wild Again’s thrilling win in the first Breeders’ Cup Classic at Hollywood Park in 1984.

Sunday Break finished third, a half-length behind 2-1 favorite Medaglia d’Oro, with Saarland fourth. All four horses are expected to go on to the Derby.

Buddha paid $8.20, running 11/8 miles in 1:483/5.

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At Oaklawn Park, Private Emblem had his Derby ticket punched with a 41/2-length victory over Wild Horses in the $500,000 Arkansas Derby. Windward Passage and Bay Monster finished in a dead heat for third place. Private Emblem, ridden by Donnie Meche, paid $10.40 and ran 11/8 miles in 1:501/5.

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Tracemark may have taken 11 races to break his maiden, but Edward T. McGrath’s 3-year-old gelding won the $150,000 California Derby at Bay Meadows and could be headed to the Kentucky Derby.