U.S. Looking More to Cuba After Castro

The Bush administration, convinced that Fidel Castro’s regime could collapse at any time, has begun developing plans to help Cuba manage a change in government and nudge the aging president’s successor toward a U.S.-style system.

Administration officials say they are trying to chart how they would react if the Cuban leader’s death, for example, opened the way for a leadership more sympathetic to the United States. And they are considering what they would do if it set off a mass migration toward Florida that the United States would have to head off.

From President Bush down, the administration “has come to a realization that we need to be more vigorous in thinking through what we would do in any number of contingencies,” said a senior administration official who asked to remain unidentified. “We have a number of interests in play.”

As it has begun this planning, the administration has been stepping up a diplomatic program intended to persuade Cubans that their next government should be democratic and market-oriented.

In the mid-1990s, the U.S. government began contracting with American academics and other researchers for policy papers that it hoped would assist Cubans in building a new, more democratic form of government. Recently, it has been stepping up its support of these efforts.

Earlier this year, for instance, the U.S. signed a $1-million contract with the University of Miami, which is sponsoring research into how Cuba could, among other things, restructure its judiciary, strengthen the rule of law, build democratic institutions and compensate individuals or families whose property was confiscated by Castro’s government.

The effort to steer Cuba toward democratic change is the second prong of the Bush administration’s policy toward the island.

The first, of course, is the 40-year-old embargo on travel and trade with Cuba, which the administration has been fighting hard to maintain in the face of increasing resistance from Congress.

Last month, the House voted to ease restrictions on travel to the island, based on the belief that contact between the countries is the best way to lead Cuba to democracy. But Bush, who believes that more trade and travel to Cuba will only enrich the Castro regime, has vowed to veto any legislation that includes the eased restrictions if they survive a congressional conference committee scheduled to begin hearings next month.

The administration’s allies in the Cuban American community are applauding its efforts to steer Cuba toward democracy after Castro.

“This administration actually intends to do something to promote democracy and regime change in Cuba,” said Dennis K. Hays, executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation, who was the State Department’s coordinator for Cuban affairs from 1993 to 1995.

The Clinton administration “discouraged us from thinking about change,” he said.

Hays said the U.S. needs to do what it can to influence the shape of Cuba’s next government because it cannot afford either a continuation of the current system or a descent into civil chaos.

And though Castro remains very much in command in Cuba, where he took control in 1959, he celebrated his 76th birthday Aug. 13. Raul Castro, his brother and designated successor, is 71.

“We need to look beyond Castro ... because of the actuarial tables if nothing else,” the senior administration official said.

He said the regime change could occur through any of a number of scenarios, including a rapid implosion or “a slow decay from inside,” as happened in the Soviet Union. The United States’ poor record in predicting past government collapses makes it more urgent to prepare now, he said.

Many analysts believe that the government that succeeds Castro might permit additional limited free enterprise--perhaps focusing on small businesses--as a way of turning around the economy. But many also believe that it would resist political reform.

In 1996, Congress sought to increase pressure for change in Cuba by passing the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act. The law--widely known as the Helms-Burton Act after its two main sponsors, Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) and Rep. Dan Burton (R-Ind.)--codified the trade and travel embargo and directed the Clinton administration to draw up plans to take an active role in reshaping the Cuban government if Castro fell.

Critics of the embargo say that although planning for a regime change is a good idea, the administration could do more by opening Cuba to more trade and travel.

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said lifting the restrictions would be the best way to expose Cubans to American voices and values. Now, Castro’s “is the only voice that’s heard,” he said.