U.S. Plans for Full Turkey Access Lose Ground

American plans for moving large numbers of ground troops through Turkey in the event of a war with Iraq seemed in jeopardy Wednesday amid growing signs that President Bush’s efforts to bring Turkey quickly into the European Union are failing.

Despite the president’s personal lobbying campaign, the European Union is expected at a summit today and Friday to reject Turkey’s request for quick entry into the organization. Anticipating this outcome, angry Turkish officials have warned this week that a snub from Europe will make it difficult for them to give extensive military support for a war that most of their citizens would oppose. U.S. officials have said that the preferred war plan for Iraq depends on being able to move troops through Turkey.

The problems emerged Tuesday, when Bush was unable at a White House meeting to persuade Turkey’s top political leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to commit to providing the U.S. military the access it wants, a U.S. official said. Erdogan held his ground, though Bush was “angry” and “frustrated,” the official said.

And U.S. hopes that the European Union might treat Turkey more favorably were damaged when the Turkish press reported Wednesday that Bush had again criticized the government of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to Erdogan.

The Germans, who have angered the administration by repeatedly criticizing U.S. policy toward Iraq, are the most important obstacle to an early Turkish entry into the EU.

U.S. officials have been conducting a concerted campaign to win Turkish permission to stage a military invasion from Turkey into northern Iraq in the event of a war. If the United States wants to invade northern Iraq, “there is no other option,” Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz said last week during a trip to Turkey. On that trip, Wolfowitz expressed optimism that the Turks would agree to U.S. requests.

U.S. forces have already been making extensive use of Turkish air bases, including the huge base at Incirlik, since the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

But with Turkish opinion clearly against assisting the U.S. in any new war against Iraq, a divided Turkish government has said only that it would provide some military support if the Iraqis break their pledge to the United Nations to disarm.

In hopes of winning over the Turks, Bush has lobbied European leaders to vote for early accession talks with Turkey at the summit meeting in Copenhagen. Bush on Wednesday telephoned Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who currently holds the EU presidency, to argue that Turkey should be brought into the union.

United Nations officials, meanwhile, have hoped that Turkey’s desire to join the EU would sway the nation to use its influence to persuade Turkish residents of Cyprus to agree to a peace proposal that would end decades of strife on the Mediterranean island. U.N. officials have been pressing Turkey to do its part to win a deal during the summit.

But hopes for simultaneous deals on Cyprus and Turkey have faded amid signs that most EU countries want to slow, if not stop, Turkey’s entry into the organization.

On Tuesday, a majority of EU foreign ministers said during a meeting in Brussels that they favor a German-French proposal to begin Turkish accession talks in 2005, if Turkey passes a human rights review in 2004. European leaders are already struggling with the costs of bringing Eastern European countries into the bloc, and they believe that Turkey’s poverty and cultural differences would make it too much to absorb.

But the Turks have rejected the idea of waiting until 2005 to begin what could be years of negotiations on accession. The U.S. has joined them in arguing that talks should begin next year.

In recent talks, Turkish officials have been urging their U.S. counterparts to enlist other Islamic nations to join a military coalition, in order to make it easier for the Turks, U.S. officials said.

But some members of Congress, and Bush, have taken the view that as a long-standing ally through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Turkey has a greater obligation to provide military help, according to U.S. officials.

A U.S. official said that the Turkish warnings and threats have been, in part, tactics aimed at winning more favorable treatment during the summit. He said the issue is still “in play.”

But he said U.S. officials believe that the chances of closing these deals are diminishing.

U.S. officials “are disappointed,” said one administration official, who asked to remain anonymous. “An opportunity is slipping away, and it’s a historic opportunity” to bring Turkey into the EU.

After meeting with Bush on Tuesday, Erdogan, who heads the Justice and Development Party, flew to New York to meet with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan about Cyprus. But officials said the meeting did not go well, and on Wednesday, a spokesman said U.N. officials no longer expected that the peace deal would be signed during the EU summit this week.

Erdogan, who is likely to become prime minister next year, also told reporters that he might decide the issue of military aid to the United States by calling a referendum in Turkey. Such a move would likely lead to a rejection because in a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, 83% of Turks said they opposed allowing the U.S. to use Turkish bases to invade Iraq.

If the EU postpones the talks with Turkey, “this is going to be ugly for the administration,” said Bulent Aliriza, a director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “A Turkey left out of the EU is going to be less amenable to the West, because the United States is part of the West.”

Erdogan also raised the possibility that Turkey would try to accelerate its economic development by joining the North American Free Trade Agreement. But many observers believe that would fail.