Uncertainty on Bush Cure for Economy

President Bush remains highly popular, but Americans are skeptical about key elements of his economic agenda, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Buoyed by widespread approval of his performance in the war against terrorism, Bush continues to receive positive job approval ratings from more than three-fifths of Americans -- including an almost unprecedented 97% of Republicans.

But Americans remain unhappy with the economy and uncertain about the remedies Bush has proposed to revive it, the survey found.

Most Americans say they believe an economic agenda focused on rebuilding schools, bridges and roads would be more effective at reviving the economy than further tax cuts, as the administration is preparing to propose. And an overwhelming majority says it would cancel the further reductions in income tax rates Bush pushed through Congress last year if the cuts would require Washington to dip into money raised for Social Security to fund other government operations, as congressional projections show.

Across the board, the survey finds Bush in a strong but slightly weaker position than the last Times poll in August, with sharp partisan differences persisting over his performance.

In all, a solid 63% of Americans say they approve of Bush’s job performance, down from 68% last summer.

The new results suggest that although Bush approaches 2003 with significant support -- just more than half of those registered to vote saying they are now inclined to support him for reelection -- the continued anxiety over the economy could pose a long-term threat to his standing.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,305 adults nationwide from Dec. 12 through 15; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

No Improvement

In the new poll, attitudes about the economy and the country’s direction failed to improve from the assessments in August, and in some instances deteriorated.

In August, for instance, 54% of Americans said the economy was doing well, compared to 45% who said it was performing badly. In the new survey, those numbers reversed: 55% now think the economy is doing badly, while just 45% believe it is performing well. The share of Americans who think the economy is performing “very badly” jumped from one-in-eight in August to almost one-in-five today.

Similarly, four-in-10 Americans say they will spend less than usual at Christmas this year, up significantly from the 26% in a poll taken before last year’s Christmas.

In a follow-up interview, Jo Ann Nelson, a retired community college teacher in Kansas City, Kan., was typical of those concerned about the economy. She wonders how families afford the high cost of groceries she sees when she shops, and she worries about local layoffs and the rising national rate of unemployment. “For other countries, 6% [unemployment] sounds wonderful, but for us I don’t think it’s great,” she said.

On other measures, little has changed. Three-fifths of those polled say the economy is in recession, almost exactly the same as in August. Only about four-in-10 believe the economy will improve in the next six months, again almost unchanged since August.

When asked who they blame for the economy’s performance, Americans divide among three principal culprits -- with the verdicts heavily shaped by partisan and ideological attitudes. Overall, 22% fingered Bush, 21% corporate fraud and 13% the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. (Although the economy slipped into recession during President Clinton’s final months in office, just 6% now blame him.)

But that relatively even division obscures sharp partisan differences. Most dramatic, while one-in-three Democrats and one-in-five independents say Bush is to blame for the economy’s problems, only one-in-50 Republicans agrees. More Republicans pick corporate fraud (34%) than any other cause, followed by the terrorist attacks (16%) and Clinton (13%).

Yet the poll also suggests that Bush hasn’t emerged unscathed from the economic discontent. Just 51% of Americans say they approve of his economic management, while 43% disapprove; that’s the lowest approval rating a Times poll has found for Bush on this issue during his presidency.

On another domestic concern, only 48% say they approved of his handling of the environment.

By contrast, Bush continues to enjoy robust approval for his handling of foreign affairs (roughly three-fifths) and national security (almost three-fourths).

“Overall, I’m pleased,” said Anne Draus, an independent in Auburn, Wash., who co-owns a publishing services business. “It’s easy to contrast Bush with [Clinton]. President Bush is more honest, and his intentions are good. He seems more down to earth and more believable.”

The poll, though, finds considerable uncertainty about the next steps Bush supports to revive the economy, and division on other key elements of his domestic agenda.

Bush’s recent decision to replace his Treasury secretary and top White House economic advisor sparked optimism: just more than half say they are confident the new team will find ways to stimulate the economy.

But the specifics of the administration’s plans drew much more mixed responses.

Conflicted on Tax Cut

The public appears ambivalent about the overall impact of the $1.35-trillion tax cut Bush pushed through Congress last year: 40% say it has helped the economy, while 26% say it has hurt and 19% say it has had no effect. Similarly, 44% say the tax cut, now scheduled to expire in 2010, should be made permanent, while 37% (including a surprising 30% of Republicans) say it should be allowed to expire.

Opinions tilt a bit further in Bush’s direction when Americans were asked whether accelerating the further reductions in income tax rates now scheduled for 2004 and 2006 would spark the economy. Nearly half (48%) think speeding up the rate cuts would help, compared to 19% who think it would hurt and 23% who believe it wouldn’t matter.

“The government tends to overspend, so any attempt to cut back on what it takes is welcome,” said Draus.

But Americans remain divided on whether more tax cuts are the best mechanism for accelerating growth.

Those polled split almost exactly in half when asked to choose between a strategy based on tax cuts (45%) and one centered on reducing the federal deficit and paying down the national debt (44%). And a majority (53%) believe “spending for improvements [on] ... roads, bridges and schools” would be more effective than further tax cuts (39%).

“I’d kind of stabilize the taxes and leave them alone and get more people to working,” said Kenneth Carver, a retired postal worker and independent in New London, Mo.

On the other side, Republican Shaun Feinberg, a high school social studies teacher in Denham Springs, La., says the best recipe is cuts in business taxes to encourage investment.

“We need to get businesses spending to get this economy going,” he said.

Support for further tax cuts rapidly erodes when Americans are asked about the budget implications. Projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show that because of the recession, the terrorist attacks and the tax cuts, Washington will be forced to tap revenue raised for Social Security to fund the rest of government at least through 2012.

Asked if the tax cuts scheduled for 2004 and 2006 should still go through if it means tapping Social Security money to pay for other government programs, a resounding 77% of adults say no. Even nearly two-thirds of Republicans say they would oppose implementing the tax cuts under those circumstances.

Bush also faces skepticism on another priority: his call for allowing workers to divert part of their Social Security payroll taxes into individual accounts they could invest in stock or bonds.

Just 38% of those polled say they support the idea -- down sharply from August -- while 55% oppose it. And nearly four-in-10 of the supporters say they wouldn’t back the idea if it required a reduction in the guaranteed Social Security benefit, as most private account plans envision. In all, then, only one in five adults would support a private account plan if guaranteed benefits are cut.

A centerpiece of Bush’s domestic energy agenda fared better in the survey: a majority supports his call for opening up more of the West to drilling for oil and natural gas “as a way of reducing dependence on foreign oil.”

But the country’s narrow divisions are evident again on issues of homeland security. Asked if it will be “necessary to give up some civil liberties to make the country safe against terrorism,” 41% say yes while 46% say some of the government’s proposals go too far. One in particular raised eyebrows: 36% say they oppose the Defense Department plan to build a massive database of financial and other records about Americans, while 31% say they support it.

One common current through almost all these questions is a dramatic level of partisan polarization in attitudes toward Bush and his priorities.

For instance, while 97% of Republicans approve of Bush’s job performance, just 37% of Democrats do -- a mammoth gap. And while two-thirds of Republicans think Bush’s tax cut has helped the economy, just one-fifth of Democrats agree. The two sides diverge again on how the economy is performing: nearly two-thirds of Republicans say it is doing well, while almost three-fourths of Democrats give it poor marks.

Given all that, it’s probably no surprise that Republicans and Democrats disagree on whether Bush has lowered the partisan temperature in Washington. Overall, 30% of Americans say Bush is less partisan than most presidents, 16% consider him more partisan and 45% say he’s no different.

Half of Republicans consider Bush less partisan; just one in six Democrats agree. In its own way, the dispute over the level of partisan division underscores its persistence.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Bush popular but vulnerable

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling ...

His job as president

Approve: 63

Disapprove: 33

Don’t know: 4

The threat of terrorism

Approve: 73

Disapprove: 23

Don’t know: 4

Foreign affairs

Approve: 59

Disapprove: 35

Don’t know: 6

The economy

Approve: 51

Disapprove: 43

Don’t know: 6

Environmental issues

Approve: 48

Disapprove: 34

Don’t know: 18

*

Q: The nation’s economy these days is doing ...

Now:

Well -- 45

Badly -- 55

8/02:

Well -- 54

Badly -- 45

Don’t know -- 1

*

Q: Who/what should get the blame for the country’s economic problems? (Asked of those who said the economy is doing badly. Accepted up to two replies. Top three overall responses shown.)

Bush and his policies

All: 22

Democrats: 34

Independents: 21

Republicans: 2

Corporate fraud/greed

All: 21

Democrats: 14

Independents: 23

Republicans: 34

9/11 attacks

All: 13

Democrats: 11

Independents: 13

Republicans: 16

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Q: Compared to last year, would you say that this holiday season you will spend more, less or about the same on presents for friends and family?

Now

More: 15

Less: 40

Same: 44

Don’t give presents (volunteered): 1

Don’t know: --

9/01

More: 11

Less: 26

Same: 59

Don’t give presents (volunteered): 1

Don’t know: 3

10/94

More: 17

Less: 31

Same: 52

Don’t give presents (volunteered): --

Don’t know: --

11/91

More: 13

Less: 51

Same: 35

Don’t give presents (volunteered): 1

Don’t know: --

Q: Which party do you think can do a better job handling ...

The environment

Democrats: 50

Republicans: 27

Both/Neither: 10

Prescription drug coverage for elderly

Democrats: 47

Republicans: 28

Both/Neither: 13

Social Security

Democrats: 42

Republicans: 35

Both/Neither: 13

The nation’s economy

Democrats: 40

Republicans: 39

Both/Neither: 11

The budget deficit

Democrats: 38

Republicans: 39

Both/Neither: 12

The country’s major problems

Democrats: 36

Republicans: 39

Both/Neither: 14

National security/terrorism

Democrats: 24

Republicans: 52

Both/Neither: 13

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Notes: Results shown are among all U.S. adults unless otherwise indicated. “ -- “ indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

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Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll contacted 1,305 Americans nationwide by telephone Dec. 12-15. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

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Source: L.A. Times polls