To Jordanians, an Iraq War Would Be Strike on Region

The United States says war with Iraq can be avoided. But few people in this desert kingdom believe it.

To Jordanians, the question is when the war will start, not if. Preparations, both practical and psychological, are underway here. The mood is an uneasy mixture of discomfort at the government’s support for the U.S., frustration at the suppression of dissent, and anger at America for preparing to attack Arab brethren, although there is little support here for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

“You might find a lot of people here who don’t like Saddam, but that’s not the point,” said Dr. Tareq Tahboub, a prominent Jordanian anesthesiologist who is active in an Islamist-leaning professional association. “Everyone here will identify with Iraqi children. The Iraqis have suffered for 12 years [under international sanctions], and we don’t know what they have done.”

On a more personal level, many Jordanians do business in Iraq, have friends in Jordan’s Iraqi refugee community and view the Iraqis as distant cousins.

“This aggression will be against the whole region. Iraq, Syria, Jordan -- all of us are from one family,” said Abdul Latif Arabiyat, a former speaker of the lower house of parliament and a top official in the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist organization. “We are warning the government no one can predict what kind of reaction there will be if there is an attack.... The Americans are foolish if they think they can destroy the whole area. Everyone in the region will feel this [military] action is against them.”

Western diplomats monitoring the situation in Jordan agree that if there is an attack on Iraq, political and economic stability here will be touch and go.

“It cannot be protracted,” said a senior Western diplomat. Asked whether fighting that lasted four to six weeks would be destabilizing, he responded, “Anything beyond a week is protracted.”

Small-business owners fear that war might worsen the already poor economic situation.

The majestic Roman ruins at Jerash, a popular tourist site, were deserted one sunny afternoon recently at what is usually high season for Arab tourists. The crafts bazaar at the entrance, once crowded with visiting Arabs and Europeans eager to buy textiles and necklaces made by Bedouins, was empty. Shopkeepers drifted between stalls to drink Turkish coffee and wonder aloud how much longer they could hang on.

“Nobody wants a war. We are thinking about this 48 hours a day,” said Khaled Marashdih, 38, who was preparing to give up one of his three stalls that sell jewelry and antique teapots. Half the stalls in his corner of the bazaar have closed. If war starts, all the remaining shops will shut their doors, he said.

The prospect of war started to affect government policy during the summer, resulting in tighter security and a further postponement of elections for a new parliament to replace the one suspended last year. Restrictions on dissent are multiplying.

Some Jordanians say privately that they fear the country could move toward more authoritarian rule, along the lines of that in other Arab states. In recent years, Jordan -- ruled by King Abdullah II, a member of the Hashemite family, which is believed to be descended directly from the prophet Muhammad -- has adopted some Western democratic policies. But now, from the government’s standpoint, there are dangers that warrant a tighter rein.

In the event of a U.S.-led war against Iraq, there are fears here that Israel would use the upheaval to push Palestinians out of the West Bank and into Jordan, in the process making more room for Israeli settlers.

Abdullah and his top aides have warned the West that an attack on Iraq -- especially one that went on for more than three or four weeks -- could prompt unrest in Jordan, especially in areas where conservative Islamists hold sway.

The assassination in October of a U.S. diplomat outside his home in Amman, the capital, heightened fears of terrorist attacks. This month, authorities announced the arrest of two suspected Al Qaeda members in the killing of the American, Laurence Foley, and said the men had planned a series of attacks against embassies, airlines and other targets in Jordan.

“We are surrounded by so many political storms, and we don’t want those storms to affect our security,” said Information Minister Mohammed Adwan. “We are being more vigilant, more watchful. We are using stricter measures.”

Among the government’s recent moves was a ban on political activity by committees that run professional trade unions. The committees have taken strong anti-Israel stances, opposing Jordan’s 1994 peace accord with the Jewish state and, more recently, circulating a blacklist of citizens who had visited or done business with Israel -- a move that many moderate Jordanians thought was inappropriate and excessive.

However, in the absence of a parliament and any effective opposition, the government’s recent clampdown has been seen as moving the country further from democracy.

“The government has become very sensitive about any entity practicing politics,” said Osama Sharif, editor of the Star, an English-language weekly. “They want to regulate the trade in politics, but the more you regulate it, the more people go underground.... If people cannot speak their mind, eventually it creates sedition.”

Last month, the government carried out a crackdown in the southern city of Maan, long known as a center of Islamists and government opponents. Officials said they were rooting out gangs involved in drug smuggling and gunrunning. Most people believe, however, that they were trying to reduce the risk of violent reaction to the government’s close relationship with the United States. At least six people were killed in clashes, including two police officers.

“The government is relying too much on security measures to suppress protest,” said Rami Khouri, an analyst in Amman for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that studies conflict areas. “Most Jordanians are violently opposed to unilateral American action [in Iraq] ... so there is a lot of frustration” because there are few outlets for them to legally express their views.

Several senior Western diplomats in Jordan concurred.

“We certainly urged them to hold the elections when they were scheduled last summer,” one diplomat said.

Jordanian journalists say they have been warned not to print articles on certain sensitive subjects such as the recent action in Maan -- except from the government’s point of view.

Free speech does seem to be in short supply. A U.S. reporter trying to interview shopkeepers in Amman was stopped by police officer Ibrahim Shamaileh, who summoned one supervisor, then another. The Jordanians being interviewed fell silent and, after five minutes, asked the reporter to erase their names.

A man who attempted to speak to the American in English was admonished in Arabic by the officer: “Just tell her that they are our friends and we like them and they are welcome in Jordan. If you say anything else, she may get the wrong impression.”