After Year of Calm, Looming War Makes U.S. Ripe for Storm

It almost seems like I’m tempting fate by bringing this up, but as 2002 turns the corner and the new year is introduced with the drumbeat of war, I’ve got to ask a question.

Was it luck, smarts, or the mercy of the gods that kept us safe this year?

Every time there’s a suicide bombing in the Middle East or another horrific act of terror somewhere in the world, I can’t help but think of the relative calm here at home.

Peace has never felt so unsettling.

If someone can strap explosives to his body and stroll unnoticed past heavily armed soldiers in Israel, why hasn’t a suicidal nut done it in a crowded California shopping mall or at a high-profile football game?

After Sept. 11, 2001, I feared that in the new world we’d have nerve gas in the subway stations and bombs in our harbors. I wondered if the crew that plotted to blow Los Angeles International Airport to smithereens might only have inspired its brethren to finish the job.

So far, it’s eerily quiet. So is our security better than we might think?

Wouldn’t that be nice.

Nothing has happened because, most likely, terrorists have decided it’s not time yet, and that only makes the quiet more chilling.

We’re nearly as vulnerable now as we were before Sept. 11, 2001. If you don’t believe me, senior U.S. officials have admitted it’s not a question of if, but when we’ll be hit again.

If that’s not spooky enough, a recent Washington Post story reported that Cabinet members and other managers are rotating in and out of an underground bunker, and one official said he had begun to wonder whether it’s safe to work so close to the White House.

So what exactly do they know? And should we be building our own bunkers?

“You’re asking the very questions that are being asked by top law enforcement and intelligence officials around the country,” says Steven Emerson, who wrote “American Jihad: The Terrorists Living Among Us.”

“I don’t think anyone has the answers. The fear, of course, ranges from the well-planned, coordinated mega-attack, to the single suicide bomber,” adds Emerson, who long before 9/11 warned that Islamic terrorists would be gunning for America.

In a moment of darkness, it occurred to me that there might very well be a plan.

As soon as the bombs start falling in Iraq, maybe we start getting hit at home, not only as a tit for tat, but because we’d be an easier target with our focus overseas.

Not 10 minutes after the bombing starts, you know as well as I do that the cockroach Osama bin Laden is going to crawl out from under a rock and dance a jig on international television, rallying new recruits to make war on the West.

According to Emerson, law enforcement agencies across America are already bracing for payback.

“It’s not based on hard-core information, but they fear an outbreak of terrorism accompanying the invasion of Iraq,” said Emerson, who now runs the Investigative Project, a Washington intelligence agency.

As despicable a man as Saddam Hussein is, it’s one more reason that going after him now is not worth it. He’s been contained for years, and he can be boxed in for many more.

If our own presidential Cabinet is hiding out in bunkers, the smart move is to put everything into the war on terrorism, to keep our eye on North Korea, to reconsider Arab-Israeli policy, to deliver more economic aid and fewer soldiers to the Middle East, and to get rid of this ridiculous campaign, run by a Madison Avenue maven, to polish up our image abroad.

It’s our actions and policies that matter, not our words and images.

If all that fails, and Saddam fires up a nuke or moves on a neighbor, then go ahead and blow his beanie all the way to Bakersfield.

So what can we mere mortals do while the drama plays out?

We can keep filling up the tank, cranking the heat, and trying to forget how much everybody hates the fat kid at the party. Or we can recognize our own culpability. In a world of limited resources, we keep big-footing around the planet, grabbing whatever we need to keep us in high cotton at rock-bottom prices.

When you make your New Year’s resolutions, forget taking up yoga or cutting out red meat. Try reading the news. Send a screaming e-mail to your congressman. Wave a sign. Exercise your 1st Amendment instead of your abs.

The quiet is scary.

Whether you’re for or against the war, now is the time to understand that every move we make will eventually be felt at home, where it’s been so, so quiet in the year 2002.

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Steve Lopez writes Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Reach him at steve.lopez@latimes. com.