Oscar Predictions Tougher Than Usual

When Marcia Gay Harden, last year’s Oscar winner for best supporting actress, steps in front of the microphone Tuesday morning to announce this year’s Academy Award nominations, a lot more than studio bragging rights will be riding on the outcome.

Hollywood studios have spent millions on advertising to tout their Oscar hopefuls to voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, and it’s a sure bet they will spend millions more should their films be nominated.

Handicapping the Oscars can be a difficult process, especially in a year like this, when there are no clear-cut favorites, but in the best picture race, many believe that the nominees could come from a select group of critically acclaimed films that includes “A Beautiful Mind,” “Moulin Rouge,” “Black Hawk Down,” “In the Bedroom,” “Gosford Park” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.”

“The two front-runners are ‘The Lord of the Rings’ and ‘A Beautiful Mind,’” said Anne Thompson, the West Coast editor of Premiere magazine. “I think as of Tuesday morning, ‘The Lord of the Rings’ is going to get an enormous number of nominations. I’ve been talking to a lot of people in the academy, and they love this movie. They applaud its vision, its artistry, its scope.” One movie that could surprise everyone Tuesday is “Shrek,” she noted, should the academy nominate the animated film in the best picture category. “Shrek” and “Monsters, Inc.” are already considered locks to become two of the three nominees in the academy’s new animation category.

The third nominee is less certain, but one strong contender is “Waking Life,” Richard Linklater’s dreamy, philosophical exploration of various states of consciousness.

The nominations will be broadcast from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences’ Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills at 5:38 a.m.

All three network morning TV shows, CNN, E! Entertainment as well as local TV stations, the BBC and Telecine in Brazil plan to cover the nominations live.

The Academy Awards will be handed out March 24 from the Oscars’ new home at the Kodak Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard.

Compiled by Times staff writers