Tollway Board Cuts Lanes for the Foothill Extension

A controversial proposal to build a tollway through environmentally sensitive areas in south Orange County was cut in half Thursday after updated traffic studies showed ridership would be far less than originally predicted.

Directors for the Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency unanimously agreed to scale back the planned Foothill South extension from eight to four lanes. The 16-mile extension would run from Mission Viejo to Interstate 5 at Camp Joseph H. Pendleton Marine Corps Base.

“The average daily traffic will not support an eight-lane road before 2025,” said James Brown, director of engineering and environmental programs for the agency that operates the county’s toll roads. “We should build only what is needed.”

Faced with information that tollway ridership projections are off the mark throughout the county, board members are taking steps to get an accurate sense of how the county’s network of turnpikes is doing.

Ridership in east Orange County, where proposed residential and retail development has been greatly reduced, will now be reexamined. And a consultant will be hired to complete an independent financial analysis of the San Joaquin Hills toll road, a coastal turnpike that has repeatedly failed to meet ridership expectations.

The toll road network is operated by the Transportation Corridor Agencies, a joint powers authority based in Irvine. The San Joaquin Hills, the Foothill, the Eastern, and a short stretch of California 133 are in the system. Extending the Foothill South into San Diego County will complete the network.

But revised traffic estimates show that the number of paying customers will be about half the number originally projected on the road’s most southern stretch and 20% to 30% behind projections in other sections.

The 1996 projections and the revised forecasts were done by consultant Terry Austin, the Orange County Transportation Authority, Caltrans and the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

Toll road officials said they had planned to build an eight-lane highway--four lanes in each direction--before 2025. But the new traffic figures indicate that only four lanes are necessary, they said.

To accommodate the proposed change, the board voted Thursday to increase the Foothill South’s budget for planning and environmental analysis by $3.5 million. Design work for the eight-lane highway also will proceed.

“We are learning that our assumptions in planning can change,” said Orange County Supervisor Todd Spitzer, who is a Foothill/Eastern board member.

Toll road officials cautioned that traffic projections might change again given the recent decision to build more than 14,000 homes in Rancho Mission Viejo.

The proposed development was not considered in the traffic forecasts. But Brown said he did not think growth from that development or others would be enough to justify an eight-lane turnpike by 2025.

Environmentalists, who oppose the Foothill South extension, said the scaled back proposal and the inaccurate traffic figures show the project is in serious trouble and should be halted.

Groups such as the Sierra Club and the Surfrider Foundation hope to block the tollway in an effort to save vast stretches of wildlife habitat in south Orange County. They also oppose a proposed route that would cut through San Onofre State Beach.

Chris Evans, Surfrider’s executive director, described the Foothill South traffic projections and their revisions as something short of “voodoo.”

The proposal “is a mess financially, environmentally, and from an alignment standpoint,” Evans said. “It’s like watching sausage being made. If the public saw this, they would be appalled.”

Thursday’s action is not the only time that inaccurate and outdated traffic projections have affected county toll roads. Board members for the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor are now concerned about declining bond ratings and the road’s continuing failure to meet its projected traffic and revenue, which were used to justify the sale of $1.8 billion in bonds.

If performance trends continue, the San Joaquin Hills toll road might face technical default in 2007 on $1.8 billion in bonds sold to build the 15-mile turnpike between Newport Beach and San Juan Capistrano, meaning revenue would be less than promised investors.

Toll officials said they are studying changes in proposed developments in eastern Orange County and their potential effect on the Foothill and Eastern toll roads, the county’s most successful turnpikes. Both roads are running about 8% ahead of projected traffic volumes.

“I am not happy” with some of the traffic forecasts, said Foothill/Eastern board member Harold R. Kaufman, who sits on the Dana Point City Council. “We need to get a feel on where we are going.”