Time Is Here for Tough Decisions

Talk of bubbles bursting, fence-sitting, scoreboard watching and Cinderella is beginning to heat up around the country as March Madness gets a late-February head start.

With some conference tournaments beginning this week, the workload for members of the NCAA selection committee will increase daily until Selection Sunday on March 10.

And in trying to make sense of who belongs and who doesn’t--aside from the 31 automatic bids earned by conference champions--it figures to be quite a debate over the next two weekends.

The Mid-American Conference, for example, might be in a pinch if Kent State, as expected, wins the conference tournament.

If that happens, it would leave Bowling Green and Ball State, with RPIs of 64 and 70 this week, possibly off the bracket. Could the committee justify three teams from a conference ranked 11th best based on RPI?

Bowling Green is 21-6 overall and 11-5 in conference, which rates ahead of Ball State at 17-9 and 10-5. But can Ball State’s early success in Maui--victories over Kansas and UCLA--be dismissed so easily after everyone was ready to anoint the Cardinals as this year’s darlings?

Pepperdine faces a similar issue in the West Coast Conference, which is rated 16th in the RPI. Should a team like San Diego win the conference tournament, Pepperdine--despite its victories over UCLA, USC and Gonzaga--probably would be finished. Aside from winning the conference tournament itself, a Gonzaga victory might ensure Pepperdine’s ticket in.

There are plenty of teams that probably need to win their conference tournament or risk seeing their bubble burst. Here are a few interesting cases:

* Valparaiso (22-7 overall, 91 RPI) and its strength-of-schedule rating of 221 leave the Commodores uncertain.

* UC Irvine (20-8 overall, 89 RPI) faces a scenario similar to last season’s, when the Anteaters were 25-4 at selection time, didn’t win the conference tournament and had to settle for the NIT.

* Creighton (19-7 overall, 57 RPI) and Southern Illinois (23-6, 55 RPI) are the class of the Missouri Valley, but if neither wins the conference tournament, one of them could be out.

* Memphis (22-7 overall, 59 RPI) leads the National Division of Conference USA, but the Tigers lack the quality wins the committee loves. In fact, this month alone, there have been losses to Alabama Birmingham, Charlotte and Houston.

As far as Cinderellas are concerned, watch for these: Central Connecticut State (23-4 and the nation’s longest win streak at 15); Hampton (22-5 and the only other team besides Kansas still undefeated in conference play); and Western Kentucky (25-3 and a healthy Chris Marcus pose potential problems for any opponent).

Declawed: Northwestern may have played itself out of a possible at-large bid by being embarrassed at home against No. 16 Illinois, 56-41.

In a game the Wildcats (16-10, 7-7) needed to impress committee members, they lost their way by shooting 29% from the field and failing to make any of their 17 three-point attempts.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team [of mine] not make a three-pointer,” Northwestern Coach Bill Carmody said.

He was right. Before Saturday, it had never happened in 18 seasons as an assistant and head coach at Princeton and during his two seasons at Northwestern.

Butler did it: Butler set a single-season record with 25 victories after its 85-61 win over Illinois Chicago and is now 25-4.

The Bulldogs broke the record set by last season’s team, which finished 24-8.

But on the other hand, Butler can’t afford a fall in the Horizon League tournament starting Friday in Cleveland.

The committee doesn’t look highly on such numbers as an RPI of 68 and a strength-of-schedule rating of 249.

Under pressure: At least Brian Jackson doesn’t play at Duke, Kansas, Indiana or anywhere Bob Knight is coaching.

Jackson rejoined Oregon State on Friday two days after leaving the program. One of his original reasons for leaving was that he said he felt too much pressure from fans--you know those Corvallis Crazies.

So what convinced Jackson to return?

“Listening to the game [Thursday] night on the radio was terrible,” Jackson said. “You don’t really realize how much you miss something until you don’t have it.”

The same way fans never forget.

Tigers roar: It turned out to be a lost weekend for Yale in a 72-63 loss to Pennsylvania at Philadelphia.

With a chance to take control of the Ivy League race, the Bulldogs could hardly muster a bark. On Friday, Yale was dismantled by Princeton, 59-46.

And after Princeton’s 73-47 victory over Brown on Saturday, it left Yale (17-9, 9-3) half a game behind in second place. Princeton is 14-9 overall and 9-2 in league.

Yale is seeking its first Ivy League title since 1962.

“The Yale game we had to win, but this game wasn’t any less,” said Princeton’s Ray Robins. “We came in with the same mentality [Saturday], that we had to win this game to stay in charge of our own stuff.”

But talk of being in front with three games left never surfaced.

“We just know if we win each game, we’ll end up in first,” Robins said.

Performance of the day: Missouri’s Clarence Gilbert scored 40 points, including a Big 12 record 12 three-point baskets in a 96-83 victory over Colorado.

Performance of the weak: Southeast Missouri State, not long ago an NCAA Cinderella, scored 18 first-half points, shot 30.6% from the field and lost to Austin Peay, 80-47.