A Case of the Blahs in GOP Primary

Urgency crept into Secretary of State Bill Jones’ voice as he answered a question lobbed at him after a speech last week at the Richard Nixon Library & Birthplace.

“What people need to realize,” the Republican candidate for governor said, “is the election is coming right up, on March 5.”

That voters need a reminder of the three-way Republican primary--now only 43 days away--says everything about the campaign to replace Democrat Gray Davis, who is virtually guaranteed the nomination for his party.

“There is no primary,” scoffed Kam Kuwata, a veteran Democratic political consultant.

So far, the Republican campaign has consisted largely of scripted speeches to supportive gatherings or news conferences that draw a smattering of reporters. The three candidates--Jones, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and businessman Bill Simon Jr.--spend most of their speeches bashing Davis and devote little time to discussing which one of them is most qualified to take him on.

Jones and Simon in particular have had a minimum of unscripted interactions with voters that would require them to demonstrate their skills at persuasion.

Riordan, whose handlers speak proudly of his charisma and personal appeal, has begun making public appearances but has shied away from discussing specifics on key matters, such as the budget crisis.

Even some of those working on the campaigns acknowledge that it has been a tepid political season.

“There is less attention in this primary for a gubernatorial race than there has been historically,” said consultant Sean Walsh, a veteran of state Republican politics who is advising Jones.

The tenor of the race could change Tuesday, when the GOP gubernatorial hopefuls meet for an hourlong debate in San Jose. It will be the first higher-profile meeting of the three, and in theory could give Jones and Simon their best opportunity to gain ground on Riordan, who is leading in all early polls.

California campaigns normally feature a minimum of public appearances and a maximum of private fund-raising to bankroll television ads, which are considered the best way to reach the state’s vast and diffuse voting population.

“It’s unlike other places like New Hampshire or Vermont, where you would be going around and going to town meetings and walking precincts and meeting people,” said UC Berkeley political scientist Bruce Cain.

This year, other factors have conspired to divert attention from the race. The Sept. 11 terrorist actions and the subsequent war in Afghanistan have drained public attention--and that of local television stations--away from politics. The Olympics, which will begin less than a month before election day, could further dilute attention.

But, the biggest factor thus far may be the dynamic among the three candidates.

Riordan, leading in fund-raising as well as polls, has chosen to ignore and even laugh off the gibes of the other GOP candidates. Jones speaks critically about Riordan as he campaigns, but badly trails him in money. Simon, like Riordan a multimillionaire, lent himself $1.7 million last month to stay competitive but has yet to go on the offensive against his better-known rivals. He has refused to criticize Riordan, a friend.

“It’s an unusually slow primary because the person who has the will doesn’t have the means and the person who has the means doesn’t have the will,” Cain said.

“Simon has the means but doesn’t have the will to really sharply go after Riordan. And Jones has the will but doesn’t have the means to sharply go after Riordan. And Riordan is happy to ignore them. You basically have this conjunction of forces that conspires to give us a non-primary.”

Not surprisingly, the Jones and Simon campaigns disagree that the outcome is predetermined. Both contend that the limited interest means die-hard Republicans, who may disagree with Riordan’s abortion-rights, pro-gun-control positions or his past support of prominent Democrats, will dominate the polls. There is plenty of time, they argue, to reach those voters.

Jones consultant Walsh said that by next month his candidate will have enough money to air ads against Riordan. “People will wake up and pay attention three weeks out from the race, and our money for direct voter turnout will pay off,” he said. “Anybody who’s counting us out is really making, like the Riordan campaign, a big mistake.”

Sal Russo, a consultant for Simon, said his candidate--who has never run for public office and who moved to the state 11 years ago--needs time to introduce himself to California voters before drawing distinctions between himself and Riordan. Simon launched radio ads last week and is expected to hit the television airwaves soon.

“You can make up big ground in this state,” Russo said, “because everyone makes up their mind late.”

This year’s early primary makes it difficult to gauge when voters will decide. Traditionally, state primaries have been held in June. Though presidential primaries were moved up earlier, this is the first time a gubernatorial vote will be held in March.

“The March primary tends to be so close now to the end of the year and the holidays, it’s all of a sudden on you, and there’s very little time--unlike the old June primary--to get up a head of steam,” said veteran GOP consultant Ken Khachigian, who is neutral in this race.

“In this particular case you have a unique situation,” he added, “where you have one person [Riordan] with overwhelming name ID in the media market that covers roughly 46% of the entire state. . . .

“You can’t even begin to think how hard it is to combat that. That’s one of the principal reasons you’re looking at the blahs right now; there’s just one candidate who’s just overwhelmingly known and it’s like there’s no one running against him.”

Khachigian said the Republican candidates could be more aggressive in the number of public appearances they hold. But he cautioned that the dynamics of the race could change in an instant.

“We’ll know a lot more a week from now and a week after that,” he said.