Davis and Foe Close in Poll

Five weeks before election day, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan holds a double-digit lead over his top rivals in the GOP gubernatorial primary and runs even with Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in a prospective fall matchup, according to a Los Angeles Times poll.

Republican Bill Simon Jr. seems poised to emerge as the conservative alternative to the centrist Riordan, running ahead of Secretary of State Bill Jones, and could do particularly well if voter turnout is low.

But Simon and Jones lose handily to Davis in trial heats, and Republicans overwhelmingly believe that Riordan--with his edge in name recognition and fund-raising--is the strongest candidate the party could put up against Davis in November.

The survey, conducted Wednesday through Sunday, offered little good news for the incumbent.

Fewer than half of Davis’ fellow Democrats are committed to supporting his reelection. The governor received poor marks among registered voters for his leadership abilities and just about 8 in 10 of those surveyed opposed Davis’ solution to the state’s $12-billion budget shortfall.

On education, the signature issue of the governor’s 1998 campaign, just about half of the electorate said that schools have failed to improve over the three years Davis has been in office; nearly 1 in 5 believe public education has actually gotten worse.

That said, Davis ran even with Riordan among registered voters, 44% to 43%, in a trial contest for November. He handily defeated Simon and Jones, 51% to 33%.

Overall, too, Californians remain upbeat--a helpful environment for an incumbent seeking reelection.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters believe the state is doing well economically and just over 2 in 5 believe California will be doing even better six months from now.

Californians will vote in primary elections March 5, a departure from the traditional June primary date. Only Republicans and independents can vote in the GOP primary. Several initiatives are also to be decided, though none at this point looks to generate the heat of some of the state’s measures.

After hearing the ballot descriptions, nearly two-thirds of likely voters said they support Proposition 40, a $2.6-billion bond measure to improve the environment and protect open space.

Opinions were more closely divided on Proposition 45, a measure to amend the state’s legislative term limits, with 48% of likely voters supporting the proposal and 39% opposed.

In the governor’s race, Riordan’s lead over Simon and Jones was sizable but hardly impenetrable. When a moderate turnout of likely GOP voters was assumed, the former mayor leads the Republican field with 34% support, followed by Pacific Palisades businessman Simon with 20% and Secretary of State Jones with 13%.

Riordan is hoping to expand the primary electorate by emphasizing his centrist stand on abortion and other social issues, appealing to independents eligible to vote in the GOP contest. Under a high turnout, Riordan’s lead widens to 37%, with Simon at 18% and Jones at 14%.

Simon and Jones, in turn, are appealing to the party’s conservative core, convinced they are more apt to come out to vote in the state’s unusually early primary. In a low turnout election, Riordan’s lead slips to 26% to 21% for Simon and 14% for Jones.

Riordan appears to be benefiting the most from his wide name recognition, as well as the eight years he spent as Los Angeles mayor. When asked why they were supporting their candidate, nearly 4 in 10 registered Republicans said they would vote for Riordan in the primary because of his experience in City Hall.

His support had a definite geographic tilt. Of Riordan’s Republican backers, nearly 3 in 4 came from Southern California.

“He seemed to do a pretty good job,” Jim St. Denis, a 58-year-old San Diego retiree and self-described “liberal Republican”, said in a follow-up interview. “What he did in L.A., he’d do for the state, I hope.”

Among GOP hopefuls, Riordan received the highest marks among likely Republican voters on the issues of public education, crime, the economy and who is best equipped to handle the state’s energy situation, followed by Simon.

Jones, the poorest of the candidates, hopes to begin advertising in the final stretch of the campaign, and he is not out of contention despite his third-place standing. Close to half the likely Republican voters who are leaning toward a candidate at this point said they may end up changing their minds before March 5.

But at this point, Riordan is seen as by far the most formidable candidate to face Davis in November. Nearly half of likely Republican voters said the former mayor would be strongest, 12% cited Jones and 11% said Simon.

Riordan does face one unique hurdle: A quarter of likely voters said he was too old to be governor. Sixty-nine percent, however, disagreed. Riordan would be 72 by inauguration day, while Jones is 52, Simon 50 and Davis 59.

The former mayor’s centrist message appears to be getting through to voters. He is seen as the Republican candidate furthest to the left, with nearly 4 in 10 GOP voters saying Riordan is more liberal than themselves.

More than 2 of 5 of those Republicans who favor abortion rights supported Riordan’s candidacy; among opponents of legalized abortion, Riordan and Simon were essentially tied.

Similarly, about 4 in 10 Republicans who advocate tougher gun controls favored Riordan; GOP opponents of stricter gun laws backed Simon, 37% to 25% over the former mayor. Jones was favored by 16%.

Doug Stolhand, a 27-year-old gun owner in the Westchester area of Los Angeles, criticized Riordan’s support for gun control while mayor. “You’ve got to protect your family and your interests,” said Stolhand, who said he could never back Riordan because of his position on guns. He is supporting Simon instead.

Although the son of the late U.S. Treasury secretary is making his first run for political office, Simon appears to have benefited from the modest TV advertising he began last week, starring former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Davis is running essentially unopposed in his party’s primary, giving him about nine months to rehabilitate his image--time he can evidently use.

Just 47% of registered voters approved of Davis’ job performance; 45% disapproved. And while the governor won stronger support for his tough stance on crime, with 51% approving, he received negative marks on his handling of the economy and, in particular, the state’s energy crisis.

Just about half of registered voters said Davis has failed to show decisive leadership as governor and his handling of the electricity crunch made them less likely to back his reelection. Among the latter were 43% of his fellow Democrats.

About 1 in 3 registered voters said things have gotten worse in California since he became governor; only 17% said things had gotten better.

“I pictured him being more forceful,” said Shirley Reeder, a lifelong Democrat who backed Davis when he ran for governor in 1998 but now wishes she had another choice in the party primary. “It seems like he always acts after the fact. . . . I see him doing things that will get him votes, not always what’s right.”

Davis won little support for his promise not to “advocate” new taxes as a way of closing the state’s $12.4-billion budget gap. Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters said Davis’ position made no difference in how they would vote; two-thirds said they expect the Legislature and Davis would end up raising taxes anyway.

Given various alternatives, 24% favored cuts in programs to close the budget hole, 15% favored higher taxes and 52% supported some combination of the two.

An overwhelming 79% of registered voters rejected Davis’ proposed solution, which involves borrowing against anticipated revenues at a potential cost of higher interest payments down the road.

But few--only 18%--blamed Davis for the state’s fiscal problems. The biggest factor cited was the slowing economy, named by almost 3 in 10 voters. Another group, about 13%, also blamed the bursting of the high-tech bubble and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

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Times Data Management Supervisor Claudia Vaughn contributed to this report.

Audio analysis of the gubernatorial poll from Times political writer Mark Z. Barabak is available at latimes.com/poll.