Reel-Time Roulette

Picking a film’s release date is like playing a million-dollar poker game. With each weekend jampacked with releases, studio executives know you can’t just bet on your own hand, you have to guess what the competition is holding.

Of course, most adhere to one of several basic strategies. Summer means popcorn flicks; winter is a natural launch pad for would-be Oscar contenders. If you have a major event picture and announce your intentions early, you might scare the other studios away from your preferred date.

And then there is the homage-to-past-success factor, in which studios launch movies on dates that have proved fruitful in the past. (“Signs,” the latest supernatural thriller from M. Night Shyamalan, will debut Aug. 2 in part because his first film, “The Sixth Sense,” was a surprise smash when it debuted the first weekend in August three years ago.)

For years, the first weekend in June brought such Jerry Bruckheimer extravaganzas as “The Rock” and “Con Air,” while Disney often reserves Thanksgiving weekend to launch animated family fare, including the two “Toy Story” movies--at least until last year, when Warner Bros.’ 600-pound gorilla “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” claimed the date.

This year, Dreamworks will release the Tom Hanks period drama “The Road to Perdition” in the middle of July, close to what is known as the “ ‘Saving Private Ryan’ date,” says Terry Pres1932271684a long time since a serious R-rated drama had been released successfully in the summer.”

Fox executives celebrate “George Lucas Day.” That was the Wednesday before Memorial Day weekend, when the “Star Wars” auteur unleashed the original “Star Wars” film. When Lucas re-introduced his saga in 1999, he decided to placate the hard-core “Star Wars” fans by making “George Lucas Day” a week early to give aficionados a chance to see it before theaters got crowded with vacationing kids.--

The High-Percentage Dates

Martin Luther King Jr. weekend in mid-January is the launch pad for year-end films that previously saw only limited release to make them Oscar eligible for the year before. It’s also a good time to launch the first wave of the new year’s films. Examples include this year’s “Black Hawk Down” and last year’s “Save the Last Dance.” >President’s Day weekend in mid-February is the only other pre-summer holiday weekend that’s targeted. Studios prefer the weekend before the holiday to launch films, hoping to build momentum toward the four-day holiday. This year’s offerings included “John Q” and “Return to Neverland.”

The first weekend in May has become the unofficial start date for the summer season. Movies such as “Twister,” “Deep Impact” and “The Mummy” have debuted in this slot. This year it will be “Spider-Man.”

Memorial Day is the official first weekend of summer. By releasing on a Wednesday prior to the holiday, instead of the preceding Friday, the studios create the possibility of six potentially big days. (“Mission: Impossible II” and “Pearl Harbor.”) This year, “Star Wars: Episode II--Attack of the Clones” will break convention by starting on Thursday, May 16.

By the third weekend in June, most schools are in recess and the seven-day-a-week pattern of summer moviegoing begins in earnest. Disney traditionally has used this weekend to debut animated films such as 1999’s “Tarzan” and this year’s “Lilo & Stitch.”

Summer’s halfway mark. Depending on when the July 4 holiday falls, studios open films either the Wednesday or Friday before. “Independence Day,” “The Perfect Storm” and “Wild Wild West” all got off to great starts over this weekend. This year it’ll be the “Men in Black” sequel and the animated “Powerpuff Girls.”

By the first weekend of August, the summer blockbusters are usually starting to wither. So the studios introduce a final crop of films to carry through the end of summer and early fall. Past releases during this period have included “The Sixth Sense,” “Air Force One” and “The Fugitive.” This year it’ll be the new Austin Powers movie, followed a week later by Shyamalan’s “Signs.”

The last weekend in September and first weekend of October are a time to seduce fall-season moviegoers, usually with an action title such as last year’s “Training Day.” Last year Disney got the jump on the other studios by releasing “Monsters Inc.” on the first Friday in November. The same strategy worked for “Charlie’s Angels” the year before that. This year it’ll be “I Spy.”

The weekend before Thanksgiving is the prelude to one of the year’s biggest movie weekends. “Harry Potter” launched at this time last year and its sequel will do it again this year. In 2000, it was “How the Grinch Stole Christmas.”

Thanksgiving is a major holiday weekend for movies, with attendance particularly heavy on the day after Thanksgiving. The Will Smith thriller “Enemy of the State” was successfully launched on this weekend, and the year before last featured “Unbreakable,” starring Bruce Willis.

The year ends with the biggest 12-day moviegoing period of the year. Some try to open their films the weekend before Christmas, while others open on Christmas Day. Last year, “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” opened the weekend before Christmas, and “Ali” opened on Christmas. This year, look for the second installment of “Rings.”