History, Geography at Odds In Nov. Elections

In a potential advantage for Republicans, the states where President Bush is strongest are emerging as the critical battlefields in the struggle for control of Congress this fall.

This tilt in the electoral map gives Republicans hope that they can leverage Bush’s wartime popularity to maximum advantage in the campaign. “If the races get defined in national terms--as in, the Republican is for the Bush agenda and the Democrat is against it--that’s a huge advantage for Republicans,” Atlanta-based GOP pollster Whit Ayres said.

The vast majority of Senate races considered most competitive are in states Bush won in 2000--the so-called red states on the political maps popularized on television.

In the House, the most closely fought contests are more evenly distributed. But analysts in both parties agree that to win that chamber, Democrats must seize opportunities in the pro-Bush South and West created by Republican retirements and the addition of seats through reapportionment.

These circumstances are escalating pressure on Democrats to find ways to reach culturally conservative, often rural voters who summarily rejected Al Gore in 2000. It’s also forcing Democrats running in states Bush won to argue for change without allowing Republicans the chance to portray them as an impediment to a popular wartime president.

“As long as the president makes the case for what he is doing abroad, you have to support [him],” said Jack Conway, a Kentucky Democrat challenging one of the few vulnerable House Republicans from a pro-Bush state. “But I am not the least bit scared in stepping forward and saying that I am part of the loyal opposition on the other issues.”

As these races develop, the election is pitting history against geography. History is behind the Democrats: Almost always, the party holding the White House loses congressional seats in the election midway through a new president’s term.

But the geography of the most competitive races is raising GOP hopes they can break that precedent. “Politics is a lot like real estate: It’s location, location, location,” said Mitch Bainwol, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Democrats’ Main Targets Are in the Red

The three Republican incumbents that Democrats consider most vulnerable all are running in red states: Sens. Tim Hutchinson of Arkansas, Bob Smith of New Hampshire and Wayne Allard of Colorado. So are two of the three incumbent Democrats viewed as targets for defeat: Sens. Jean Carnahan of Missouri and Tim Johnson of South Dakota. (The one exception is Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, a state Gore narrowly carried.)

Retirements are forcing the GOP to defend four open Senate seats, which could lead to Democratic gains. But all those seats are in Southern states Bush won handily: North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.

Uphill Battle Against Regional Tendencies

In all, of the 20 Senate seats Republicans must defend this year, 17 are in states Bush carried (the exceptions are Maine, New Mexico and Oregon.) Democrats are defending only 14 seats, but half of those are in pro-Bush states.

The trend isn’t as pronounced in the House. But the largest concentration of Democratic opportunities may be in the red states.

GOP retirements and the creation of new seats after reapportionment have given Democrats chances for wins in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and Tennessee in the South, and in Arizona, Nevada and Colorado in the mountain West. Democrats also are aiming at GOP House incumbents in North Carolina, West Virginia, Texas and in the Kentucky district where Conway is challenging three-term Rep. Anne M. Northup. Bush carried all those states.

Unless Democrats can break through in at least some of these red-state races, it’s difficult to see how they can regain a majority in the House or maintain their one-seat control of the Senate.

And to win, Democrats have to fight the tendency of these regions to increasingly align their votes for Congress and the presidency. When Bush’s father was elected president in 1988, Democrats held 59% of the House seats and 55% of the Senate seats in the states he carried. Today, in the 30 states George W. Bush won, Republicans hold two-thirds of the Senate seats and three-fifths of the House seats.

Democrats may have more success in the red-state House races than in the Senate contests. That’s because, almost without exception, Democrats are targeting seats in parts of these states where Bush showed the least strength in 2000.

But in these districts, the model for Democratic candidates isn’t Gore but Mark Warner, the Democratic venture capitalist who won the governorship of Virginia--another Bush state--in 2001 by neutralizing issues such as gun control and emphasizing a fiscally responsible government activism.

Conway, a charismatic former aide to Kentucky Gov. Paul E. Patton, is following Warner’s lead by assuring hunters that he “won’t take your gun away.” Conway casts himself as a fiscal conservative committed to returning the federal budget to balance while emphasizing bread-and-butter Democratic issues such as education and health care.

But even in this district--which Gore narrowly carried--Bush looms as a complicating factor. Conway aides agree it will be difficult for him to criticize Northup over the return of federal budget deficits without urging reconsideration of Bush’s tax cut, which Conway is reluctant to do. And Northup, a fierce competitor who has survived three close races, is certain to take every opportunity to stress her ties with Bush--who appears much stronger in the district than he was in 2000.

Theme Emerges in GOP Strategy

Terry Carmack, Northup’s chief of staff, previewed what’s ripening as a common theme for red-state Republicans when he said: “Do we want someone who is helping the president move his agenda along, or someone who is being sent to Washington to . . . stand in the way of the president?”

Republicans may be driving that message even more aggressively in the Senate races. Already, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has run ads accusing five Democratic senators of blocking Bush’s proposals to stimulate the economy. The committee’s Bainwol said Democrats in states leaning toward Bush should brace for more of the same on issues such as judicial confirmations.

“It would be wrong to say that is all we will do, but when Democrats separate from the president’s agenda in states where the president enjoys strong support--and fortunately that’s a great many of them--that will be part of the mix of what we want to demonstrate.”