Mud Flies Faster as Voters’ Disgust Becomes Simon’s Only Hope

It’s down to this for Bill Simon Jr.: His only hope of being elected governor is if Democrats so abhor Gov. Gray Davis they cannot stomach voting for him.

Too calculating. Too corrupt.

Democrats don’t even have to vote for Simon. Just stiff Davis.

So Simon, in weekend TV ads, began chucking even more muck at the incumbent, dredging up a 16-year-old charge that then-Assemblyman Davis illegally used legislative aides and phones to raise money for his controller race. Davis was not prosecuted by Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp, a fellow Democrat, but he repaid the Assembly $28,000.

“Had enough?” the Simon ad asks. “Fire Gray Davis.”

“No namby-pamby, fluffy stuff,” says a Simon advisor, one of several who had been pushing him to run tough attack ads. Simon wanted to run positive, issues spots, but acquiesced.

No. 1 strategist Ed Rollins explained to Simon he had been discredited -- by Davis’ bombardment of attack ads and his own stumbling -- and simply was not believable to voters.

“He’s so badly bruised,” Rollins says, “he can only make charges against Gray Davis because people already believe them.”

The novice candidate, who had never run for office before, also has been told by advisors to forget about ever running again if he doesn’t win Tuesday. He’s too damaged. Better pour it on now.

This reportedly shocked Simon, who had envisioned a political future even if he loses.

That might have been possible if he’d lost the primary, finishing a respectable second, and the winner had been drubbed in November. But Simon now has been pummeled for eight months -- by Davis and by himself. His only lifeline is to pull an upset Tuesday.

In truth, only one or two advisors -- including original strategist Sal Russo -- profess to believe Simon will win. Others, however, haven’t abandoned hope. It’s very eerie out there among the tuned-out electorate. Anything’s possible.

But for Simon to triumph, Republicans must hold their noses and vote for a conservative who’s uninspiring, inexperienced and inept. And that’s hardly a sure bet.

Neutral polls consistently have shown that Republicans like Simon no better than Democrats like Davis -- in fact, less.

The latest Field poll found that 62% of Davis’ supporters are voting “for” the governor, in contrast to merely “against” Simon. But of Simon’s supporters, only 32% are voting “for” the GOP candidate.

In the Times Poll -- which showed Davis 9 points ahead -- each candidate is drawing about three-fourths of his party’s vote.

Also helping Davis, final voter registration figures show that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 44.6% to 35.2%, with declined-to-states at 15.2%. The independents favor Davis by 28 points, the Times Poll found.

So Simon’s negative ads are aimed at firing up Republicans and depressing everyone else -- by fueling the GOP’s hatred of Davis while making him repulsive to Democrats and independents. It’s now too late to sell Simon, his strategists figure.

How did it get to this?

Any reasonable Republican -- some warm body -- could have run better against the unpopular Davis. Examples: insurance commissioner candidate Gary Mendoza, a former state corporations commissioner; lieutenant governor candidate Bruce McPherson, a longtime legislator. Both are social moderates.

But here’s what Mendoza and McPherson don’t have: Simon’s inherited millions. Wealth seduced the investor into arrogantly believing he could master the big leagues without ever having played rookie ball.

Simon’s first mistake was running. He should have stuck with his original instinct to go for state treasurer.

Another mistake was not realizing that his primary election victory was a fluke. Davis beat up front-runner Richard Riordan -- the Republican he feared -- and Riordan also imploded.

If Simon had understood this, he might have poured millions of his own stash into a post-primary TV effort to introduce himself to swing voters. Instead, he waited and Davis defined him as a corporate crook.

Then there were the unending campaign screw-ups: not releasing his taxes and not articulating why, not preparing politically for a disastrous court judgment, leveling a bum rap against Davis on fund-raising, making a gay rights commitment and reneging. Allowing his staff to bicker and backstab. Being unfocused on issues. Lacking passion.

As I wrote earlier, it’s hard to recall a worse candidate ever -- a worse nominee for California governor. Or a worse campaign.

But, hey, Davis hasn’t won yet. If he loses, he’ll be the all-time worst.

Davis’ hope is that Democrats see Simon as scary -- on labor, guns, abortion, the environment -- and believe the Republican possibly could win. Then suck it up and vote Democratic.