Legislators Letting Davis Lead on Budget

Three years ago, when times were good and the state budget was awash in surplus, Gov. Gray Davis summed up the Legislature’s role in dismissive fashion. “Their job,” he said then, “is to implement my vision.”

Now, with California confronting a projected budget deficit of $21 billion and painful spending cuts unavoidable, Democratic and Republican legislators alike seem content to honor the governor’s wish.

Davis weighed in on the looming budget mess Thursday -- 16 days after winning reelection to a second term -- by requesting a special legislative session to begin Dec. 9. He promised legislators a package of $5 billion in cuts and other savings, but offered no specifics.

Legislative leaders, distrustful of Davis and deeply divided along party lines, are saying little, preferring to let the governor define the agenda for the unpleasant work ahead. Their plan for the moment: Let Davis take the lead and any early heat for making hard choices.

“I don’t think anybody’s going to move until Gray Davis says, ‘This is my cut list,’ ” said retiring Assemblyman Bill Leonard (R-San Bernardino), elected to the State Board of Equalization earlier this month. “He’s under a burden to show a complete plan.”

In addition to the midyear fixes in the 2002-03 budget, Davis has until Jan. 10 to give the Legislature a balanced budget for 2003-04.

Democrats hold commanding majorities in both houses of the Legislature. But Davis will need at least five Republicans in the Assembly and two in the Senate to reach the two-thirds majority required to pass a budget -- and those votes will be hard to come by, legislators in both parties warn.

Ominously, there isn’t a hint of common ground in the Legislature: Republicans say spending cuts alone should solve the problem, while Democrats say the only solution is a mix of cuts and tax increases.

“We are not going to balance this budget on poor people, seniors and people that are disabled,” said Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson (D-Culver City). “If the Republicans truly believe this budget can be balanced with cuts and cuts alone, we will not go quietly into the night on this.”

Wesson noted that former Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, addressed a similar budget crisis in 1991 with a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

But just as Democrats feel obligated to preserve programs that benefit their core supporters, Republicans face intense pressure from their constituents and conservative interest groups to oppose any new taxes.

Assembly Republican Leader Dave Cox of Fair Oaks says he and his GOP colleagues in the lower house won’t support a tax increase under any circumstances.

Leonard agrees, saying it’s a “foregone conclusion” that Assembly Republicans will never support a budget that raises taxes.

That reflects a core Republican conviction -- that higher taxes will hurt the state’s economy -- as well as a hard political calculation: that voting to raise taxes will expose Republican legislators to possible defeat by conservative challengers in the next GOP primary.

If Cox is true to his word -- and this year’s budget debate suggests that his anti-tax vow is more than mere posturing -- Davis and the Legislature face a long, bitter year ahead.

Davis said Thursday that he will freeze as much government spending as possible as a first step toward addressing the budget gap.

He wouldn’t give legislative leaders or reporters further details on how he plans to achieve $5 billion in savings.

But, if Davis heeds the recommendation of nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill and others, he will ask legislators to “recapture” $1.9 billion in education spending -- the amount by which the 2002-03 budget exceeds the required state support to public education under voter-approved Proposition 98.

The expected fight over whether to pull back the $1.9 billion will be a preview of countless conflicts in the struggle to cut billions from the budget, legislators and other experts warn.

Privately, a number of Democrats and Republicans say they support such a move, but they fear the consequences when they face reelection.

“It’s probably the easiest way to get that much money in one vote, but I don’t know whether it’s doable or not,” Leonard said. “I would rather do health and welfare cuts before I do education cuts. No elected official wants to be portrayed as anti-education.”

Legislators who might be inclined to support the move will face opposition from powerful organizations such as the California Teachers Assn., just one of many groups already gearing up to defend their interests.

“Education is the last place where we should be cutting right now,” said CTA spokeswoman Becky Zoglman.

In addition to searching for spending cuts, Democrats are widely expected to use the December special session to restore vehicle license fees to 1998 levels, which could raise about $3.8 billion.

A number of other proposals for increasing taxes are popular among Democrats, from an increase in the high-end personal income tax bracket to new taxes on tobacco. But beyond the license fee, any additional tax increase will require Republican support to reach the required two-thirds margin of approval, and that isn’t likely to come anytime soon, Democrats and Republicans say.

Republicans, in fact, say Davis and the Democrats must dramatically slash state spending before they will even consider what experts say will be the ultimate solution needed to eliminate the final billions in the budget gap: either short-term borrowing or a tax increase.

Some Democrats, however, are determined to make it hard for Republicans to hold fast to that position. Specifically, they are moving to generate political heat from the left against those who slash popular programs.

Senate Leader John Burton of San Francisco, an influential and outspoken liberal, proposes holding hearings around the state to gauge public support for the cuts being demanded by Republicans.

“My feeling is: Work with everybody who’s going to be asked to take a whack,” Burton said. “We’re going to be looking at anything and everything.”

Such hearings would undoubtedly focus public attention and anger on the pain that proposed cuts would cause, and give Democrats an opportunity to build a case for raising taxes.

For the moment, anyway, as Davis and his staff cull through the budget in search of savings, most legislators seem willing to let the spotlight shine on the governor.

Throughout his first term, Davis has prided himself on his cautious, incremental approach to solving the state’s problems, a style that some legislators and others say will not lend itself to conquering a budget deficit that threatens to reach historic dimensions in the coming months.

Davis is up to the challenge, said deputy press secretary Hilary McLean.

“The question is: Is he going to be joined in that challenge by Republicans?” she said. “We’re going to need the full participation of all the elected leaders in the state, because it’s just too big of a problem. Sitting on the sidelines is not going to serve the people of California.”