Bush Focuses Campaigning on Key Areas

Beginning a planned three weeks of intense travel, President Bush visited Michigan on Monday to try to turn a hard-fought House race into a Republican victory as he scraps for the critical seats that could mean the difference between a GOP or Democratic-led Congress for the next two years.

The tentative schedule devised by the White House has him crossing the country as the Nov. 5 elections approach, spending no more than three full days at the White House.

With few exceptions, many of the approximately 15 states Bush is expected to visit were among the closest in the presidential election two years ago. Now, they are home to equally close House, Senate or gubernatorial contests that show much of the country is still evenly divided. In all likelihood, they also will be of critical importance in the presidential election two years from now.

As Election Day nears, final decisions about Bush’s schedule will be made by the numbers--the poll figures that indicate where he can do the most good for the overall Republican cause. GOP candidates who are clearly winning--or clearly losing--would be unlikely to see the White House entourage alight in their districts.

For security and political reasons, the president’s schedule is closely held. This week, he is slated to make largely political visits to Georgia, Florida, Missouri and Minnesota. Other likely stops before Nov. 5 include South Dakota, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Colorado, Tennessee and Iowa.

Multiple visits are being considered to Florida, where the president’s brother, Jeb, is seeking reelection as governor. Jeb Bush’s defeat at the hands of Democrat Bill McBride would be a sharp political and personal setback to the president.

Multiple visits also are possible in Minnesota. The outcome of a close race there between Sen. Paul Wellstone, a Democrat, and Republican Norm Coleman could determine control of the Senate, where Democrats now hold a one-seat margin.

While the president is on the road, so, too, is Vice President Dick Cheney.

His schedule Monday took him to Phoenix, to a fund-raiser for Rick Renzi in Arizona, and later to a fund-raiser for Steve Pearce in New Mexico.

Both Republicans are running for open seats in House races viewed by analysts as highly competitive.

Cheney’s wife, Lynne, was raising money Monday in Maryland for Helen Bentley, a former House member seeking to return after an eight-year absence.

The time the president and vice president are devoting to House races is an indication of just how closely the parties are fighting to gain control of the chamber, which the Republicans now control by six seats.

When seeking out the few districts that are truly competitive, the Democrats hit on an open seat south of Detroit as one where, despite a slight Republican advantage in registration, they might have a solid opportunity.

At the start of the campaign, the race in Michigan’s 11th district was not supposed to be close. The district’s borders were drawn by the Republican Legislature, and approved by Republican Gov. John Engler, to encompass communities where Republicans make up about 54% of the voters.

But Democrats’ polls rate it a tossup. Although an independent poll three weeks ago gave the Republican, Thaddeus McCotter, a 15-point lead over Kevin Kelley, a Democrat, 37% said they were undecided. Michigan also has a strong base of independent voters who have a history of producing surprises.

Cheney already has campaigned here for McCotter, and Bush’s presence signaled that the Republicans think it is close enough to require the president to devote half a day here. In his remarks, Bush delivered a simple message, saying he wants “a Congress with which I can work.” Bush helped raise $1 million for the state Republican Party and $400,000 for McCotter’s campaign.

Democrats are hoping that in a district with strong union membership, they will be able to turn resentment over the president’s recent involvement in the West Coast dock strike into support for their candidate.

Referring to the port strike, Bush said he acted because the longshore workers and the shippers “couldn’t get together ... they were locking down the ports. And that hurt manufacturers here in Michigan, and it hurt Michigan farmers, and it’s going to hurt Michigan’s consumers if it went on too long.”

But neither the presence of national figures nor concerns about the economy or the possibility of war with Iraq have grabbed the attention of voters, say independent observers.