Kurdish Dream of Nation Is a Nightmare for Turkey

Many messy sideshows are expected in a war to topple Saddam Hussein, but few will be more dangerous than in the mountains of northern Iraq, where Turkey’s national security will collide with Kurdish dreams of a homeland.

As diplomats bicker over the language of U.N. resolutions, tensions are hardening along the 220-mile Turkish-Iraqi border. Tents are being shipped in for refugees as the Turkish government prepares for possible deployment of thousands more troops. These forces, according to Western diplomats and Turkish military analysts, probably would seize control of northern Iraq shortly after missile strikes on Baghdad, to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state.

The focus is on the future of 3.5 million Kurds who are protected from Iraqi troops in the “no-fly” zone in the north. For generations, the Kurds have wanted their own country, and, with the protection of U.S. planes, they have formed a de facto state in the mountains. The prospect of an independent Kurdistan emerging from war’s ashes, however, is unacceptable to Turkey, which has spent billions fighting separatists among its own 13 million Kurds.

“If the Kurds declare an independent entity, it wouldn’t last more than a couple of days,” one Western diplomat said. “The Turkish army will go in and shut it down. How would the U.S. respond? What’s more important to the U.S. -- an independent Kurdistan or a valuable, strategic ally like Turkey?”

The dilemma is sensitive for Washington. More than 50,000 Iraqi Kurd fighters could help defeat the Iraqi president. But Washington’s relationship with the Kurds is angering Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization partner with airbases and staging grounds for U.S. forces. Turkey is pressuring the U.S. to make participation in the war more palatable by reining in the Iraqi Kurds and by providing economic aid to offset costs Turkey cannot afford.

U.S. Army Gen. Tommy Franks met with Turkish military officials this week to discuss what role their nation would play in an Iraq invasion. The talks came as Turkish leaders expressed reluctance to join a conflict that would destabilize the region and create more economic turmoil. And they complained that Washington has sent mixed messages about its intentions for war and has provided no plan for the aftermath of any ouster of Hussein’s regime.

The Turks want a clear signal from Washington that the Iraqi Kurds will be held in check. Turkey already has 3,000 to 5,000 troops in northern Iraq to contain the remnants of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, rebel group that fled Turkey after a cease-fire in 1999. In one possible scenario, these soldiers, along with thousands of others, would seal off northern Iraq, preventing the escape of Iraqi soldiers and allowing the Turks to crush any Kurdish move toward independence.

The Iraqi Kurds appear to sense the risks of declaring independence too soon after a war. Members of their two main political parties -- the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party -- have been shuttling to Ankara, the Turkish capital, in recent weeks in efforts to calm tensions. The Kurds say they are only seeking an autonomous enclave in a postwar Iraqi federation.

“We want a federal structure to safeguard our people so that no government in Iraq can conduct war or genocide against us,” said Safeen M. Dizayee of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. “We want to keep Iraq unified.... So long as Kurds do not have the ambition of an independent state, it should not bother our neighbors.”

But it does. Turkey worries that the Iraqi Kurds will claim independence in the chaos of war. “That is the nightmare scenario,” said Ilnur Cevik, editor of the Turkish Daily News.

The Kurds are this region’s orphans. Nearly 22 million Kurds are scattered across Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. They have longed for an independent homeland, but language, political infighting and the Middle East’s existing borders have made it impossible.

Turkey fears that if Iraqi Kurds are granted too much autonomy or independence, it will stoke similar aspirations among its own Kurdish population. More than 37,000 people, mostly Kurds, were killed and hundreds of villages were destroyed in Turkey’s 15-year war with the PKK. Iran also is worried that its 6 million Kurds will become restive.

The prospect of granting Iraqi Kurds a special status could incite unrest among ethnic populations across the region, said Hasan Koni, a political science professor at Ankara University.

“When you look at the Middle East, you are looking at a place of ethnic tribes,” Koni said. “If one tribe gets a federation, they’ll all want federations and this means a whole resettlement of the Middle East will occur. If you give something to one ethnicity, you have to give it to all. This is the danger.”

The Turkish government is also loath to accept an independent Kurdistan carved out of Iraq that would include the oil-rich towns of Mosul and Kirkuk, once part of the Turkish Ottoman empire and a rallying cry for Turkish nationalists.

“Turkey will not tolerate the Kurds controlling the oil fields because that will give them economic power, which will lead them to independence,” said Armagan Kuloglu, a retired Turkish general and Middle East analyst. He is urging that Turkish forces push 200 miles into northern Iraq to protect Kirkuk.

Turkey doesn’t like the idea of another war in its neighborhood. Lost trade from economic sanctions against Iraq has cost Turkey between $40 billion and $60 billion over the last decade. This nation of 67 million has a 35% inflation rate and a $210-billion debt. The economy will suffer further if war brings an estimated 350,000 Iraqi refugees streaming toward Turkey, most of whom will be kept in camps the Turkish military will control within Iraq.

“So,” Kuloglu said, “Turkey has to have something from the U.S. for taking part in this costly war.”

U.S. and Turkish officials are negotiating a $4-billion to $6-billion military aid package for Ankara. Turkey is requesting more U.S. investment. And it has asked for Washington’s help in Turkey’s entry into the European Union and in securing low-interest loans from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.