Battle for Video Game Recognition

Ask Errol Dunningham what he wants for Christmas, and he’ll tick off the names of dozens of video games.

“I can’t afford all the games I want,” said the 24-year-old West Los Angeles airport security guard. “I’d say the list is longer than ever.”

It sure is. For gamers such as Dunningham, this is a bumper crop as publishers churn out a record number of titles -- more than 1,200 by year’s end. For game makers, however, competition for attention and retail shelf space represents one of the fiercest fights in the industry’s relatively brief history.

Publishers are putting out an unprecedented number of console games to cash in on the immense popularity of next-generation game machines such as Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 2, Nintendo Co.’s GameCube and Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox. By year’s end, more than 700 console games will have been released, up from 312 games in 1998, according to International Development Group, a consulting firm in San Francisco.

Throw in more than 500 new computer games, and shelves will be bulging. Console software sales in North America are expected to grow more than 25% this year to a record $5.8 billion, but each publisher’s piece of the pie may be thinner than ever because there are so many games.

“We’re set to have a record number of console [titles] chasing store shelves,” said Simon Price, analyst at IDG. “Where are they all going to fit into the store?”

Target Corp. is stocking 40% more titles this year than last in its 1,148 stores, said Douglas Kline, a spokesman for the Minneapolis-based retailer. “We expect this to be one of the better years for video game sales,” Kline said. “That’s why we’re offering more choices this year.”

But Target, like most retailers, must still pick and choose what it stocks.

“Competition for shelf space has intensified,” said Edward Williams, an analyst with Gerard Klauer Mattison, an investment firm holding a game industry conference today in New York. “If you are a secondary publisher, it’s going to be difficult for you to gain distribution for your products.”

Overall, games are a bright spot in an otherwise grim market for consumer electronics. Sales of consoles continue to be brisk. About 15% of U.S. households are expected to have a current-generation game console by year’s end, according to publisher estimates. Sony is expected to have sold 15.3 million PlayStation 2s, and Microsoft and Nintendo are forecast to move about 4 million machines each in North America.

With so many households seeded with consoles, game publishers are tripping over themselves to release games to play on them.

The most anticipated title of all this holiday season is “Grand Theft Auto: Vice City” for PS2. The game is expected to sell nearly as well as its blockbuster predecessor, “Grand Theft Auto 3,” which sold 8 million copies worldwide since its debut last year.

Initial shipments of “Vice City” will top 1 million copies, Williams said. Many of those have already been snapped up. Stores such as an Electronics Boutique in Santa Monica were sold out of the game Tuesday, the day it hit store shelves.

“You can combine the buzz for all the games on GameCube and Xbox, and you wouldn’t come up with the same level of buzz that ‘Vice City’ is generating,” said Dan Hsu, editor of Electronic Gaming Monthly in San Francisco. “That game is just going to sell crazy numbers.”

Although there’s ample shelf space for other titles that are expected to be big sellers, such as “Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 4” and “WWE Smackdown! Shut Your Mouth,” titles without big marketing budgets or grass-roots fan buzz will have a tough time getting any attention.

Still, the hope among publishers is that they are sitting on a sleeper hit that will catch everyone by surprise. Last year, that was “Grand Theft Auto 3.”

“We’re in a tough spot right now,” said Brian Farrell, who has been chief executive of Calabasas-based game developer THQ Inc. for eight years. “It’s two months before Christmas, and a lot can change over the next eight weeks.”

For more Times computer game coverage, go to www .latimes.com/games.