Public’s Mood on Priorities Changes

Rising anxiety about the nation’s direction and continued uncertainty about the economy appear to be strengthening the Democrats’ position in the battle for control of Congress, a Times Poll has found.

But with President Bush still enjoying high approval ratings and nearly three-fifths of Americans indicating they are inclined to reelect their member of Congress, the poll points toward another closely fought election between two parties that finished the 2000 campaign in a virtual dead heat.

Against that backdrop of broad partisan parity, the poll finds some shifts in the landscape that could help Democrats. In the survey, the share of Americans dissatisfied with the country’s overall direction increased sharply from earlier this year; that’s usually a warning sign for the party holding the White House.

At the same time, more people now pick Democrats than Republicans when asked which party can best handle the most important problem facing the country, and which party they intend to support in November’s congressional elections.

The key to the Democratic rise may be an underlying shift in the public’s focus: More than twice as many Americans now say the economy, rather than the war on terrorism, will be the most important issue in determining their vote for Congress. And Democrats have opened a 44% to 38% advantage on the critical measure of which party can do a better job of handling the economy.

“It seems to me every time the country has been in a bad way economically, a Democratic administration has had to come in and bring the country out of it. I see the old pattern going on again,” said Orville Ives, a retired utility contractor in Port Charlotte, Fla., who responded to the poll.

None of this guarantees that the Democrats will gain in November. The broad national measure of voter preference in congressional elections, for instance, has not always been a precise predictor of the outcome of individual House races.

And Bush’s popularity could still be an important asset for GOP candidates: 37% of those polled say they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who would help Bush implement his agenda, compared with 17% who say they would be less likely (42% said it won’t affect their vote).

“I think the way Bush has handled things has been just fine,” said Cindy Cavitt, a traveling photographer from Coachella, Calif. “I’m usually more inclined to vote Republican ... and I don’t see any real reason to change.”

The Times Poll, supervised by director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,372 adults nationwide from Aug. 22 to 25. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In November’s elections, voters will select all 435 House members as well as senators in 34 states and governors in 36. The election will determine control of the House, where the GOP has a six-seat edge, and the Senate, which the Democrats command by a single seat.

The poll suggests that the campaign will be fought out against a backdrop of resurfacing political divisions and sustained ambivalence about the economy.

From several angles, the poll finds the wave of unity that washed away partisan differences after last September’s terrorist attacks is receding. Indeed, the new survey finds the nation reverting to the polarized assessments about Bush’s presidency evident before Sept. 11.

Bush continues to receive strong marks in many areas. Two-thirds say they approve of his overall job performance, and he receives good grades on handling the terrorist threat (74%), foreign policy (61%), the economy (56%) and even corporate fraud (55%). Only for his handling of the federal budget, which has fallen back into deficit after four years of surpluses, does the president fall below majority support, with 48%.

Yet Bush’s scores on those measures are down from the stratospheric heights he reached in a Times Poll in February; at that point, his overall approval rating hit 80%. And old divides are reemerging.

Among voters who consider themselves Republicans, Bush’s support has hardly declined at all: an impressive 93% of GOP partisans still approve of his job performance.

“Overall, he’s doing a good job,” said Republican Edward Brog, a retired teacher in Elmwood, Ill. “As I listen to the national news broadcasts and read the newspaper, the thing that impresses me most about the criticism ... is that it seems to be more politically motivated than because there is real substance to the objection.”

Among independents, Bush’s approval ratings have slipped since February, but only modestly--from 81% to 71%. “Given how he started, with the questionable election, it’s fortuitous for him, in a strange way, that he had an event [Sept. 11] that he could show his strengths,” said Carol Kleiner, an independent in Colorado Springs, Colo.

It’s among self-described Democrats that Bush has suffered the largest erosion. Since February, his ratings with Democrats have dropped 13 percentage points for his handling of the economy, 17 points for his overall job performance and 27 points on foreign policy. Now 60% of Democrats give Bush failing marks on the economy and for his handling of the federal budget.

“The economy has gone straight to hell since the new administration took over,” says Ives, the retired contractor, who usually leans Democratic. “We had trillions of dollars in [budget] surpluses before they took over. Now we are ready to start borrowing again just to keep the government going.”

Partisan loyalties even appear to be shaping perceptions about the economy. Though the poll found that a majority of Democrats say the economy is doing poorly, nearly three-fourths of Republicans believe it is doing well. Republicans are also much more optimistic than Democrats that the economy will pick up over the next six months.

“Right now, things seem to be going pretty good,” said Glenn Turner, who runs a small trucking company in Raleigh, N.C. “It takes time to get out of a recession.”

Overall, the public mood on the economy appears not so much gloomy as anxious.

Nearly three-fifths said the economy is in recession. But only one in nine said it was a serious recession. And the share of Americans who believe the country isn’t in recession at all more than doubled, from 15% in February to 36% in the new survey.

“The economy is all right,” says Cavitt, the traveling photographer. “It’s not as bad as everybody thinks it is.”

Still, economic concerns can be felt in other measures. About 45% of adults say the economy is either performing fairly badly or very badly. And on the most basic measure of public sentiment, just 45% of adults say the country is on the right track; an equal number say it is heading in the wrong direction.

That’s a sharp jump from the 26% in February who said the country was moving in the wrong direction. In the new survey, those down on the country’s course cited the economy more than any other reason for their dissatisfaction.

Typically, voters unhappy with the country’s direction are more likely to support the party out of the White House. That pattern is holding again.

Overall, Democrats led 47% to 39% over the GOP when voters were asked which party they intend to back in November’s congressional elections. Among those who believe the country is on the right track, the GOP led by 19 percentage points; Democrats led by 34 points among those who believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction.

To some extent, those numbers reflect a circular logic: Because Democrats are more likely than Republicans to consider the country on the wrong track, it’s not surprising that those pessimistic voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates for Congress.

But the relationship is a telling divide among independent voters as well. Independents divide almost in half about whether the country is moving in the right direction. Those who think the country is on the right track prefer Republicans by a 2-1 margin in the congressional vote. Independents unhappy with the country’s direction prefer Democrats by nearly that much.

Preferences in the congressional election also are generally dividing along fault lines that have become familiar in U.S. politics during the last decade. Men prefer GOP candidates by 8 percentage points; women prefer Democrats by 22 percentage points.

Democrats ran strongest in the East and West, while Republicans led in the Midwest. In one surprise, Democrats held a 46% to 44% advantage in the South, which has been a GOP stronghold.

Married voters prefer the GOP by 8 percentage points; singles back the Democrats by more than a 2-1 rate. Both sides have consolidated their base: Nearly 90% of Democrats and Republicans say they will back their own party’s candidates for Congress.

The poll also contains two measures of early sentiment toward 2004.

Three-quarters of Republicans said they want Bush to keep Vice President Dick Cheney on his ticket if he runs again.

The survey found somewhat more restrained good news for former Vice President Al Gore: 29% of Democrats said they would definitely support him for the party’s nomination again in 2004, with 35% more saying they probably would back him; 13% said they definitely would not, and 19% more said they probably would not.

For Bush, the most ominous sign in the poll is the prevalence of doubts about his economic agenda, not only among Democrats but many independents. Although the majority approve of Bush’s handling of the economy, that finding may reflect the broader support and trust he still enjoys after Sept. 11.

On more specific measures, Bush’s economic agenda doesn’t score nearly so well:

* Just 18% said Bush has a clear policy for dealing with the economy; 72% said he’s merely reacting to events.

* Among those who said the economy is doing badly, 24% said Bush’s economic policies were principally to blame. That’s more than any other cause chosen except corporate fraud, which also drew 24%. With independents, corporate fraud and Bush’s policies finished No. 1 and No. 2.

* Fifty-six percent said they believe Bush’s economic policies favor the rich, and 55% said he cares more about protecting the interests of large corporations than ordinary citizens. In each case, a majority of independents shared those negative views.

* By 51% to 39%, a majority said they believe that an economic policy focused on reducing the federal deficit and paying down the national debt would be a more effective way to stimulate the economy than further tax cuts, as Bush is urging.

“I don’t think we can afford the tax cut,” said Don Weiler, a pharmacist in LaPorte, Ind. “A lot of time, the people [the] tax cuts are designed to help don’t get the help.”

* Support appears thin for Bush’s proposal to allow workers to divert part of their Social Security payroll taxes into individual accounts that they could invest in the stock market.

Although Americans initially back the idea, 48% to 44%, many of those who like the proposal say they would oppose it if it required a reduction in the guaranteed Social Security benefit--as virtually all private investment plans would.

If guaranteed benefits are reduced, just 25% say they would back private accounts, with 64% opposing.

State of the Nation

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously on the wrong track? track?

Approve Disapprove

His job as president? 68% 27

The threat of terrorism? 74% 22

Foreign affairs? 61% 31

The economy? 56% 38

Fraud by large corporations? 55% 32

The federal budget? 48% 37

Which party do you think can do a better job of handling . . .

Both/ Don’t Dems. Reps. Neither know

The countryearss major problems? 38% 34 17 11

Social Security? 47% 30 13 10

The nationearss economy? 44% 38 11 7

The budget deficit? 43% 37 12 8

National security and war on terrorism? 26% 48 15 11

The Economy

The nation’s economy these days is doing . . .

Now 9/01*

Well 54 71

Badly 45 25

Donearst know 1 4

Those who said the economy is doing badly were asked: “Who or what should get the blame for the country’s economic problems?” (Accepted up to two replies; top four responses shown.)

Corporate fraud and greed 24%

Bush and his economic policies 17

The 9/11 attacks 24

Republicans in Congress 13

Do you think we are in an economic recession or not?

Now 2/02 9/01*

No recession 36 15 41

Recession (Total) 59 81 51

Mild recession 25 29 23

Moderate recession 23 34 19

Serious recession 11 18 9

Don’t know 5 4 8

How would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days?

Now 2/02 9/01*

Secure 65 77 76

Shaky 34 22 22

Donearst know 1 1 2

Do you think President Bush and his adminstration have formulated a clear policy for dealing with the countryeithers economic problems or do you think they are reacting to events as they happen?

Clear policy 18%

Reacting to events 72%

Don’t know 10%

*The 9/01 poll was conducted Sept. 13-14, 2001.

Note: Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,372 Americans nationwide, including 1,163 registered voters, by telephone Aug. 22-25. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll