China Looks Like Winner in N. Korea Talks

During the Korean War, China sent a million troops to help its communist ally, North Korea, fight the United States. Five decades later, Pyongyang and Washington again face each other with the region’s peace and stability at stake.

Once again, China has a key role, but this time, it is trying to make peace, not war.

At Beijing’s Diaoyutai State Guest House, the complex of villas reserved for visiting foreigners, officials from the United States sat down with North Korea on Wednesday. It was the first face-to-face meeting since October, when North Korea told the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly that it was trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Kelly, who represented the United States Wednesday, wouldn’t discuss the first day of talks. But few expect much to come out of the closed-door meetings scheduled to end Friday. North Korea sent a low-level ministerial representative, an indication that these sessions would likely only lay the groundwork for a long negotiating process.

But China appears to have already come out ahead. By brokering and hosting the three-way talks, Beijing has shown a rare willingness to play a constructive leadership role in global affairs.

“It’s an amazing change. In the past, whenever China’s been in an international crisis, it’s been part of the problem,” said Orville Schell, a longtime China watcher at UC Berkeley. “Here, even if the talks fail, it’s positioning itself as part of the solution. This represents something of a breakthrough for China.”

Since embarking on a course of economic reforms in the last two decades, Beijing decided to keep a low profile in international politics. Chinese officials wanted to avoid setting any precedent that would allow other countries to interfere in such controversial issues as Taiwan and Tibet independence.

But the destabilizing potential of the North Korean crisis forced China to think more flexibly about the idea of noninterference and the price of inaction, analysts said.

“What we’re witnessing is a slow evolution of China’s rigid notion of absolute sovereignty and its emergence into a much more global community where sovereignty is breached all the time, through trade, humanitarian aid, multinational corporations and international protocols, which represent countries coming together rather than countries being isolated and independent,” said Schell.

Tensions rose last October, when Pyongyang admitted having a uranium-based nuclear weapons program. Beijing watched from the sidelines as the North Koreans upped the ante by throwing out international inspectors, pulling out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and restarting its nuclear reactors.

Pyongyang demanded bilateral talks with Washington and guarantees that the United States wouldn’t invade or terminate desperately needed economic aid. But the Bush administration insisted it wouldn’t meet until Kim Jong Il dismantled his nuclear facilities and agreed to multilateral talks. The standoff continued even as the U.S. began military action in Iraq.

Meanwhile, China had quietly begun calculating its own interests and diplomatic options. From its perspective, a nuclear Korean Peninsula could have disastrous consequences for China if it triggered an arms race involving Japan and South Korea.

The United States said it wanted a diplomatic solution, but there were fears that if the U.S. took military action, it would damage China’s economic stability, especially if Pyongyang allowed a flood of refugees to cross its border with China. The demise of North Korea would leave Beijing without a security buffer in the highly militarized region and take away any leverage it might have in influencing Korean reunification.

“It’s a combination of North Korea escalating the crisis to the point China saw as dangerous and the fact that the two sides did not appear to be able to get talks going on their own that prompted China to take a more active role,” said Phillip Saunders from the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

As North Korea’s longtime ally and biggest supplier of food and fuel, China was in the best position to force the reclusive nation to the bargaining table. Beijing sent a high-level envoy to Pyongyang in March to privately deliver the message that it could not count on Beijing to support irrational brinksmanship. China briefly shut off gas pipelines to the north as a signal it means business.

Yet publicly, China stood by Pyongyang by opposing sanctions and preventing the U.N. Security Council from taking up the matter. China knows North Korea does not respond well to pressure alone. Pushing it against the wall would only cause the regime to lash out in dangerous ways.

Even if these talks flop, China might still emerge as an all-around winner. Japan and South Korea didn’t get a seat at the table, but they have indicated that they are pleased with the way China seized the political limelight to defuse tensions rather than dodge the issue, which is what Beijing had been doing.

As for Washington, it has lavished repeated praise on Beijing for stepping up to the plate. It may just be the thing the United States and China need to fortify their fragile ties.

“China has been trying hard to improve relations,” said Saunders.

“Post-Sept. 11th, they saw the fight against terrorism as a basis to stabilize bilateral relations. The Korean crisis provides another opportunity to show China can play a very positive role in maintaining stability in East Asia.”