Looking for a New Darling

She probably has a ponytail. And maybe braces, which she can’t wait to shed. Certainly, she has a determination that is as unshakeable as it is unteachable.

She’s the next Nadia, Olga or Mary Lou, the girl who will blossom under the Olympic spotlight in Athens a year from now, winning the admiration of dedicated sports fans with her athleticism and claiming the hearts of casual fans as she nimbly navigates the awkward territory between adolescence and womanhood.

She will be the next gymnast known globally by one name, as Soviet sprite Olga Korbut was after the 1972 Munich Games, solemn-faced Romanian Nadia Comaneci was at Montreal in 1976 and ebullient, powerful Mary Lou Retton of West Virginia was after winning the all-around gold medal, two silver medals and two bronze medals at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics.

Her identity may become clear starting this week at the Arrowhead Pond of Anaheim, where the World Gymnastics Championships will unfold over nine days. In addition to determining team, all-around and individual event world champions, the competition will decide team berths for the 2004 Games and individual entries for countries that won’t send full squads.

The next “it” girl could be Romanian -- perhaps heralded newcomer Catalina Ponor or 4-foot-6 balance beam standout Oana Ban. Or Anna Pavlova of Russia, the 4-7 dynamo who won six medals at two World Junior Championships and graduated to the senior ranks this year, where she defeated legendary teammate Svetlana Khorkina at the Russian Cup.

Versatile Courtney Kupets could turn out to be the one. She won a gold medal on the uneven bars at last year’s World Championships and followed up by winning the U.S. all-around title in June. But teammate Carly Patterson, reportedly recovered from the elbow injury that kept her out of the U.S. championships, might stake a claim to that honor with her poise and remarkably difficult routines.

Then again, the next queen of leotards might not be here at all.

She could be home nursing an injury. That’s the misfortune of Natalia Ziganshina of Russia, the European vault champion and world vault silver medalist, who has a bad back. Or the queen might be a year away from that moment when body and mind cooperate to produce superb results, as Chellsie Memmel of the U.S. appears to be after a senior-level debut that included an all-around gold medal at the Pan Am Games. Or Zhang Nan of China, 4-8, fearless on the balance beam and last year’s Asian Games all-around champion.

Foretelling the future in women’s gymnastics is complicated. This year’s blazing star might be next year’s spectator, so unpredictable are the effects of puberty and the stress put on young, growing bodies.

Few female gymnasts enjoy more than two or three years at the top of the sport. The tricks they must master are so difficult that many suffer a major injury at some point -- and if it’s just before the World Championships or Olympics, years of dreams can be lost. Then, too, there’s always an energetic 15-year-old graduating from the junior ranks and pursuing them while they cope with the physical and emotional roller coaster of teen years.

Choosing favorites among the U.S. women is especially difficult. The reorganization of the national development program has created intense intramural competition and produced more world-class athletes than there will be spots in Athens. It’s a pleasant problem, one shared by only a few countries, such as China, Russia, Romania, Ukraine and the Japanese men. Competitors lucky enough to be injury-free and perform well at their national championships or selection camps this year might not be as successful next year, when Olympic berths will be on the line.

“I think the World Championships will certainly be a precursor to the Olympic Games in Athens, but probably more so for other countries than for the U.S.,” said Bob Colarossi, president of USA Gymnastics. “Our team is so deep, right now I can’t even begin to guess what our Olympic team will be. I would expect some of the kids from this team would be there, but there are a lot of kids right behind them trying to fight for a spot on the team in 2004.”

With the obvious exception of 24-year-old Khorkina, who has been competing at the World Championships since 1994, turnover is constant in the women’s ranks.

Of the six members of the bronze medal-winning U.S. women’s team at the 2001 World Championships, only Tasha Schwikert made it to Anaheim. Tabitha Yim of Irvine is injured, Katie Heenan didn’t win a berth at the U.S. championships or at selection camp, and Rachel Tidd, Mohini Bhardwaj and Ashley Miles aren’t competing on the Olympic track.

Predicting the next lord of the still rings -- and parallel bars and high bar -- is a bit easier because there’s greater continuity in the men’s ranks.

Three members of the silver medal-winning U.S. men’s team from the 2001 World Championships will compete in Anaheim -- Raj Bhavsar, Paul Hamm and Brett McClure -- and a fourth, Guard Young, is an alternate. Of the six men’s individual event champions from the 2001 World Championships (including one double winner), five will compete at Anaheim.

Men’s events put a premium on strength, and men, who generally mature later than women, become stronger in their 20s. Women’s events value agility, and they can’t tumble as well or soar as gracefully between the uneven bars if their limbs grow and their hips widen. Most female gymnasts hit their competitive peak by 18 or 19; some prolong their careers by competing at U.S. colleges, where the skill levels are not as high as those required for Olympic success.

“Certainly, you see a lot of turnover in women’s gymnastics, but I think there will be a lot of stability in the year leading up to the Games,” said Peter Vidmar, who won gold in the team and pommel horse events and silver in the all-around at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. He’s an honorary chairman of the World Championships, a status he shares with Retton and Bela Karolyi.

“Realistically, there won’t be a lot of surprises in terms of team selection next year,” he added. “There’s always an exception. Mary Lou Retton is a perfect example of that. She burst onto the scene quickly and had her success.

“The only thing that could be a surprise is the fact we have so much talent in the women’s program right now in our country that there are a number of girls who didn’t make the World Championships team who have the skills to be on the team. So you just don’t know. But this is going to be important for those who are here to do well and make a name for themselves leading up to Athens.”

John Roethlisberger, a U.S. Olympian who is providing event coverage on the in-house radio broadcasts of the World Championships, said the rapid change in the women’s field has its pluses and minuses.

“It’s nice to have a star, a household name,” he said, “but it’s nice also that someone can burst onto the scene. Mary Lou Retton in ’84 is a good example. She didn’t compete in the ’83 worlds and came in in 1984 and was fantastic.”

He cited Khorkina and Patterson as potential show-stoppers in Anaheim and plans to closely monitor the attempt by Ivan Ivankov of Belarus to reclaim the all-around titles he won in 1994 and 1997. “The U.S. [men] is right there with a bunch of other teams,” Roethlisberger said.

Colarossi agreed the men’s competition will be fierce, with as many as 11 teams vying for team medals. He grouped the U.S. with China, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Japan and possibly Spain and France as the top contenders. The U.S. women, he said, “are as good as anybody in the world....Our focus is on execution, and we’re really trying to look at what we need to do as a country to make all of our routines.”

And if Alina Kozich of Ukraine hits her routines in Anaheim, will she get a jump on becoming the face of Athens? Or Verona van de Leur of the Netherlands? Perhaps Elena Gomez of Spain, the 2002 floor exercise world champion. The spotlight awaits.

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Bhavsar, the U.S. champion in the vault, may not compete on the apparatus in the World Gymnastics Championships because of a stress fracture in his lower back.

Bhavsar, 22, sat out the floor exercise and vault during the team’s first workout on the actual competition apparatus Wednesday night.

Staff writer Lauren Peterson contributed to this report.