A Conference Headed South

The landscape in the Pacific 10 Conference has changed. You can finally see palm trees again, instead of a rainy Northwest sky.

After a spell when such teams as Washington State and Oregon -- and even, briefly, Oregon State -- stole some of the spotlight from the traditional southern power base, USC is once again the favorite.

The Trojans lost Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer from the team that finished 11-2 and ranked fourth in the nation. But they have enough players back to be considered one of the top contenders, along with another team from the southern half of the league, resurgent Arizona State, and traditional Northwest power Washington.

Palmer led the departing quarterback class that included Washington State’s Jason Gesser and California’s Kyle Boller, but Washington’s Cody Pickett and Arizona State’s Andrew Walter are poised to dominate the statistics while other teams regroup.

The coaching landscape is almost unrecognizable too, with Mike Price, Bob Toledo, Rick Neuheisel and Dennis Erickson gone, making Oregon’s Mike Bellotti, in his ninth season, the dean of Pac-10 coaches. Astonishingly, that leaves USC’s Pete Carroll tied for second in only his third season -- and perhaps on his way to his first Rose Bowl.

A look at the conference, in order of predicted finish:

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USC

Coach: Pete Carroll, third year

2002 record: 11-2, 7-1

Case for: Sure, Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer is gone but USC still has plenty of talent and confidence left after winning its last eight. New quarterback Matt Leinart has first-rate receivers in Mike Williams and Keary Colbert and a veteran offensive line, and freshman running back Reggie Bush has inspired plenty of hype. Tackle Shaun Cody is back from a knee injury to lead one of the nation’s best defensive lines again after the Trojans held opponents to 83.2 yards rushing.

“We’re very fortunate that we had the year we had,” Carroll said. “It feels like we’re starting over in some ways.”

Case against: Even Palmer needed five years to reach his Heisman-winning form, so figure the inexperienced Leinart, a sophomore, will need time to develop. Defensively, there might be vulnerability in the secondary after the loss of three starters, one of them All-American safety Troy Polamalu.

If all goes right: It starts with a top-10 clash on the road against Auburn on Saturday. The key Pac-10 games are both on the road, against Arizona State and Washington. Even so, USC could be headed to Pasadena on New Year’s Day for the first time since 1996.

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WASHINGTON

Coach: Keith Gilbertson, first year

2002 record: 7-6, 4-4

Case for: Cody Pickett -- not Palmer -- threw for more yards last season than any Pac-10 quarterback, becoming the first in conference history to pass for more than 4,000. He also was third in the nation in total offense, and has a brilliant receiver in first-team All-American Reggie Williams.

Case against: The Huskies are still settling in after the Neuheisel fiasco, and an opening game on the road against defending national champion Ohio State is no way to start. Plus, the running game -- ninth in the league last season -- is a concern, along with special teams. The Huskies also are breaking in a rookie kicker and a rookie punter -- at Ohio State, of all places.

“There’s a lot of newness in our program,” Gilbertson said. “A new head coach, a new offensive line coach and a new defensive coordinator. We’ll carry on and conduct business as usual.”

If all goes right: The Buckeyes are without Maurice Clarett, so the Huskies get lucky, and that kind of boost could propel to them to a 4-0 start, assuming victories over Indiana, Idaho and Stanford, before a trip to UCLA. The Pac-10 schedule is favorable, the Huskies skipping Arizona State and playing USC in Seattle.

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ARIZONA STATE

Coach: Dirk Koetter, third year

2002 record: 8-6, 5-3

Case for: Andrew Walter set a Pac-10 passing record with 536 yards against Oregon last season, and the surprise team of last season has 17 starters back -- the most in the Pac-10. Walter will need a new target to replace Shaun McDonald, who left early for the NFL.

Case against: A major loss: Terrell Suggs set an NCAA record with 24 sacks, then headed to the NFL early. Seven defensive starters are back, but this is a team that was ninth in the league in scoring defense, giving up 29.1 points a game while counting on Koetter’s wide-open offense to wear out the scoreboard.

If all goes right: Blame the Pac-10 schedule for the advantage it gives Arizona State and Washington over USC: They don’t have to play each other this season. The only truly daunting game on Arizona State’s schedule appears to be USC at home on Oct. 4.

“We were picked to finish ninth last year and finished third,” Koetter said. “We’re excited that we’ve been picked to finish higher than last year.”

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OREGON STATE

Coach: Mike Riley, first year (also coached OSU from 1997-98)

2002 record: 8-5, 4-4

Case for: Talk about a smooth coaching transition. Riley returns, only four years after Dennis Erickson replaced him when he left for the San Diego Chargers.

“I’ve been doing some mission work for a couple of years, and I’m excited to be back at Oregon State,” Riley deadpanned.

The offensive leaders have returned too: Pac-10 rushing champion Steven Jackson, whose 130-yard average was eighth in the nation, and quarterback Derek Anderson, who set school records for passing yards and touchdowns last season.

Case against: The Beavers lost both starting cornerbacks from a defense that ranked second in the league to USC last season.

If all goes right: Riley has plenty of admirers -- he could have had the Alabama job and was in the hunt at USC and UCLA the last time they had openings -- but he’s still looking for his first winning season as a college or NFL coach. This should be the season.

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UCLA

Coach: Karl Dorrell, first year

2002 record: 8-5, 4-4

Case for: The Bruins are still young but there are solid groups back on both sides of the ball -- seven returning starters on offense and seven on defense. Such sophomores as tailback Tyler Ebell and quarterbacks Drew Olson and Matt Moore already have experience, and Olson and Moore have a close competition that should drive both to be better. The strongest unit on the team might be the senior-laden defensive line, and the defense overall is easily the Bruins’ best suit.

Case against: If neither quarterback lays a solid claim to the job, it could be a season of indecision. Depth at receiver is a question mark because of Tab Perry’s academic ineligibility, and the kicking game is green, with a new kicker, punter, holder and long snapper.

If all goes right: The Bruins start at Colorado on Sept. 6, then play Illinois at home before a game Sept. 20 at Oklahoma knocks them -- and probably their new quarterback -- for a loop. After that, a reasonable goal would be to finish in the top half of the Pac-10 in Dorrell’s first season.

“The excitement of being back has been great, but now it’s, ‘Karl, you’ve got to win,’ ” Dorrell said.

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WASHINGTON STATE

Coach: Bill Doba, first year

2002 record: 10-3, 7-1

Case for: The Cougars have 15 starters back from the team that played in the Rose Bowl last season -- though, granted, one is a kicker and one is a punter. But star quarterback Jason Gesser isn’t among the returning players and unspectacular Matt Kegel takes over as a senior. Still, standout receiver Devard Darling and running back Jermaine Green should boost the offense.

“I’ve been around for four years,” Kegel said. “And now it’s my show.”

Case against: Besides Gesser -- and, of course, Coach Mike Price -- the Cougars have lost Outland Trophy winner Rien Long and cornerback Marcus Trufant, the 11th pick in the NFL draft.

If all goes right: New coach Doba, Price’s longtime defensive coordinator, would like to avoid the sort of collapse the program endured after its previous Rose Bowl season in 1997. Washington State finished last in the Pac-10 the next three seasons.

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OREGON

Coach: Mike Bellotti, ninth year

2002 record: 7-6, 3-5

Case for: The intensity should be high after last season’s collapse. The Ducks started 6-0, then lost six of seven, beating only lowly Stanford. Bellotti is zeroed in on improving. Quarterback Jason Fife is back after an unsteady year, though he has competition from Kellen Clemens.

Case against: Last in the league in total defense last season, Oregon must replace five starters. Three of four are back in the secondary, but the Ducks gave up 35 touchdowns passing, seven more than any other Pac-10 team and 25 more than Oregon State.

“Our philosophy is not how you start, it’s how you finish, and we didn’t finish very well,” linebacker Kevin Mitchell said. “Once you get stuck in quicksand, you can’t get out, and that’s what happened.”

If all goes right: If Fife or Clemens can take a firm hold on the quarterbacking job and the Ducks find a runner to replace Onterrio Smith, the offense could be OK. But the real issue is Nick Aliotti’s defense.

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CALIFORNIA

Coach: Jeff Tedford, second year

2002 record: 7-5, 4-4

Case for: No major-college team had a bigger turnaround last season than Cal, which went from 1-10 to 7-5 in Tedford’s first year and had its first winning season since 1993. Tedford’s star will really shine if he can do something with a team that lost its star quarterback and 15 starters.

Case against: Kyle Boller’s season made him a first-round NFL draft pick and now Tedford is looking for a new quarterback to play checkers with -- a favorite technique of his for teaching offensive strategy. “We lost a great quarterback in Kyle Boller. Obviously our focal point is replacing him,” Tedford said.

Tedford named junior Reggie Robertson the starter for the opener against Kansas State. But Aaron Rodgers, a strong-armed sophomore community college transfer Tedford calls “very talented,” might be the ultimate successor. The real struggle is likely to be on defense: Cal lost all but two starters.

If all goes right: After sending a new quarterback and a green defense against seventh-ranked Kansas State on Saturday, Cal can hope its 42-28 loss is something to build on.

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STANFORD

Coach: Buddy Teevens, second year

2002 record: 2-9, 1-7

Case for: Teevens’ first season after Tyrone Willingham left for Notre Dame was such a disaster, progress would seem inevitable. The once-prolific offense was last in the league in passing and total offense -- and the Cardinal was last in scoring defense as well, giving up an astonishing 34.3 points a game. “I don’t think it helped that Notre Dame was doing so well,” receiver Luke Powell said.

Quarterback Chris Lewis, the former Long Beach Poly star, is back after playing only five games last season because of an NCAA suspension and shoulder problems. He had off-season rotator-cuff surgery. But Kyle Matter, who starred at Newhall Hart High before taking over for Lewis as a freshman last year, has dropped to third on the depth chart behind redshirt freshman Trent Edwards.

Case against: Almost half the players are true or redshirt freshmen. Four starters are gone from the offensive line, including all-conference tackle Kwame Harris, who left early for the NFL.

If all goes right: The best Teevens can hope for is to fare better against the bottom half of the Pac-10 and steady the ship.

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ARIZONA

Coach: John Mackovic, third year

2002 record: 4-8, 1-7

Case for: Let’s see.... The coach survived a mutiny last season and returns with a team picked to finish last. That’s not much of an argument for success, but then again, there really isn’t much of a case to be made.

“In life, you have ups and downs,” Mackovic said. “As we turn the corner from 2002, which was an interesting year, we have made some adjustments.”

Among those: a new 3-4 defense.

Case against: Bobby Wade, an all-conference receiver, is gone, and the top returning receiver, Andrae Thurman, is academically ineligible. Arizona must replace quarterback Jason Johnson as well. Then there’s the defense, which gave up an average of 161.8 yards rushing. Three-time all-conference linebacker Lance Briggs is gone and only four starters return.

If all goes right: Arizona’s goal should simply be not to finish last, and Mackovic’s should be to survive another awful season.