‘Last’ shall be first

This weekend’s East Coast blizzard, post-Thanksgiving blahs and pre-Christmas frenzy conspired to produce a tepid weekend at the nation’s theaters, with Tom Cruise’s historical epic “The Last Samurai” opening only moderately well with an estimated $24.4 million.

While it is the best opening for a movie on the weekend following Thanksgiving, it is slightly below Cruise’s previous December opening of $25 million for 2001’s “Vanilla Sky.” It is the lowest debut for a Cruise wide release since “Eyes Wide Shut,” which opened with $21.7 million in July 1999. His most recent previous film, “Minority Report,” opened with $35.7 million last year. “Samurai’s” audience was a little less than 60% male.

Catering to a vastly different audience, the teenage girl-driven musical, “Honey” came in at No. 2 with $14 million. The audience was roughly three-quarters female and under 21.

The estimated total of about $87.8 million for this weekend’s top 10 movies was down 39% compared with last weekend -- not surprising, considering that Thanksgiving is one of the strongest moviegoing weekends of the year, according to Nielsen EDI Inc., a box-office tracking firm. Despite mediocre numbers this weekend, it was still better than this time last year, when the top 10 films grossed $63.8 million -- 38% lower than this year.

Still, most movies that were already in theaters endured substantial drops from last weekend with Sony/Revolution’s “The Missing” down 59%, Universal’s “Dr. Seuss’ The Cat in the Hat” plummeting 69%, Disney’s “The Haunted Mansion” collapsing by 60% and “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” sinking 68%.

Some smaller movies such as Jim Sheridan’s “In America” and Denys Arcand’s “The Barbarian Invasions” held their ground a little better, falling only 29% and 27% respectively.

Dan Fellman, head of domestic distribution for Warner Bros., speculated that the snowstorm back East might have cost “The Last Samurai” between $3 million and $4 million in ticket sales. Still, considering “Master and Commander,” another historical adventure, opened to $25 million in November, the fate of “Samurai,” which cost more than $100 million to make, depends on how well it can sustain an audience amid heavy competition. “Master and Commander,” which cost in the neighborhood of $150 million, has taken in an estimated $72.6 million, so both films will need to perform well in foreign markets to recoup their costs. Studios receive only about half of a film’s total gross, which is split with theater operators.

Fellman said Warner Bros. wanted to get “Samurai” in theaters well before the Dec. 17 opening of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” With so many historical action-dramas such as “Samurai,” “The Missing,” “Master and Commander” and the upcoming “Cold Mountain,” the movies could cannibalize each other’s audience.

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Box Office

Preliminary results based on studio projections.

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*--* Movie 3-day gross Total (millions)

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*--* The Last Samurai $24.4 $24.4

Honey 14.0 14.0

The Haunted Mansion 9.5 46.1

Elf 8.1 139.6

Dr. Seuss’ The Cat in the Hat 7.3 85.5

Bad Santa 7.1 27.2

Gothika 5.3 49.6

The Missing 4.4 22.2

Master and Commander 3.8 72.6

Love Actually 3.7 48.9

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Source: Nielsen EDI, Inc.

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Los Angeles Times