‘Flu Gamble’ Is a Bad Bet
This year’s flu season got off to a quick and nasty start, producing a run on vaccine. Since drug companies were stuck last year with millions of unused doses, they produced less vaccine this year. The high demand and low supply inevitably produced panic and long lines.
It’s the yearly influenza gamble: Which flu strain will predominate? How hard will it strike? How many people will demand shots? Incubating the vaccine in chicken eggs, the makers of flu shots must hazard an answer months before they have a clue, while flu viruses can mutate in the time it takes humans to make up their minds.
This annual guessing game could be eased by federal health policies that encourage more people, not just the most vulnerable, to get flu shots. Government could also make up to manufacturers at least part of the loss from doses that end up in the trash.
Many people fear the shots, thinking they still contain live viruses (they don’t, though the nasal inhalant does); the public at least should be making educated decisions. Consistent, increased demand would ensure a better supply and lower costs.
For the longer haul, Congress should approve $100 million requested by the Department of Health and Human Services to develop new methods of producing flu vaccine with quicker turnaround and more effective immunization. Two promising methods -- gene manipulation and culturing in mammalian tissue -- have been used against other diseases. Quicker vaccine production would take the guesswork out of making the right vaccine for the right flu. Resupplying in midseason would be possible.
Though influenza doesn’t get the attention of anthrax or smallpox, many virologists consider it a bigger threat and fully expect a flu pandemic within the next couple of decades. Those occur when an unfamiliar or long-unseen flu strikes, a situation in which people’s immunity is low.
The Spanish flu pandemic killed millions worldwide in 1918. Pandemics in 1957 and 1968 killed tens of thousands in the United States alone. In such years, a better vaccine-making machine could prevent catastrophe. It also could provide a vaccine against exotic bird-related flus, emerging viruses that cannot be grown in eggs.
Most years, for most people, flu is just a rotten inconvenience, a few days of achy misery. It’s unclear whether this year’s flu season will prove overall to be particularly severe, though the current flu strain is known to be pernicious. Its hard and early strike got the public’s attention. Now it needs Washington’s.
