Blix Awaiting ‘Tangible Proof’

The top two U.N. weapons inspectors came to this capital over the weekend wanting something spectacular from Iraqi authorities to prevent a war. After two days of intense and arduous meetings, they announced Sunday night that what they got was not bad.

The Iraqis served up reams of documents purporting to answer outstanding questions about their nuclear activities and to support their contention that they unilaterally destroyed and buried VX nerve agents, anthrax and other banned substances.

They also offered “constructive suggestions” on how they could work with U.N. inspectors to verify their claims, and said that the issue of aerial surveillance could be settled by Friday, when the inspectors are scheduled to make their next report to the Security Council.

The Iraqis also reiterated that the government will “encourage” its scientists to sit for private, unmonitored interviews with weapons investigators and that legislation will be passed soon spelling out Iraq’s total commitment to ridding itself of weapons of mass destruction.

Although characteristically cautious in his assessment, chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, a veteran Swedish diplomat, called these “good developments.”

His nuclear weapons watchdog counterpart, Mohamed ElBaradei, said he was encouraged that the Iraqis were starting to show “the beginning of a change of heart” that -- if continued -- would achieve disarmament in line with U.N. resolutions without the need for war.

Although Blix said he was not ready to label Iraq’s new attitude a breakthrough, he also was not ready to accept President Bush’s recent assessment that “the game is over.”

“We are still in the game,” he said.

The talks with Blix and ElBaradei were seen as a crucial test of Iraq’s willingness to increase cooperation in the face of a mounting threat of war and the gathering of armies on its borders. What is uncertain is whether the cautiously optimistic views of the inspectors will be enough to dissuade the United States and Britain from their view that the Iraqi government is still deceiving and playing cat-and-mouse with the United Nations.

Citing the meetings Saturday and Sunday on each of the four categories for inspections -- missiles and chemical, biological and nuclear weapons -- ElBaradei said: “I see all this as a beginning of a change of heart, a beginning of a different attitude. And I hope this new attitude will be tested in the next few days and weeks, because time is of the essence.”

Blix said he awaits two signs in the coming days as “tangible proof” that the apparent Iraqi change of heart is genuine: enactment of legislation by Iraq that it is wholeheartedly committed to ridding itself of weapons of mass destruction and an Iraqi go-ahead for high-altitude reconnaissance flights by U.S. U-2 spy planes to support the inspectors in their work.

Iraqi presidential advisor Gen. Amir Saadi, who led the Iraqi side in the weekend talks, told reporters afterward that Baghdad is doing all it can to satisfy the international community’s demands and that there is no need for war to clear up outstanding issues in Iraq’s past weapons declarations.

“If the inspections and our joint effort is allowed to proceed without pressure, without hindrance, we will get there,” Saadi promised. “There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it is visible now.”

By encouraging the private interviews of scientists, nearing agreement on aerial surveillance and offering the material on anthrax, VX and other proscribed substances, Saadi argued, the Iraqi effort should “satisfy the skeptics and should satisfy the fair minded.”

“If that is not spectacular, we don’t know what is,” he said.

According to Saadi, a total of 24 documents and letters covering chemical and biological weapons and missiles were turned over to Blix and ElBaradei, plus a revised list of nuclear scientists that had been requested by the inspectors.

Much will depend on the analysis of the documents given to the inspectors.

Already Saturday, experts were going through the files and conferring with their Iraqi counterparts about technical details.

But Blix said the material did not appear to contain many new original documents and rather was an amplification and clarification of what Iraq has already said about its efforts to dispose of chemical and biological substances and medium- and long-range missiles proscribed by U.N. resolutions.

More positively, Blix said, Iraq suggested joint physical testing on the ground with the inspectors not only to show what substances it has disposed of but to give some idea of the quantities, Blix said.

Nevertheless, the two sides did not fully agree.

For instance, Saadi stopped short of saying that Iraq would encourage scientists to travel outside the country, if asked, to be interviewed by U.N. inspection teams. Iraq would go only as far as to facilitate contacts between the inspectors and the scientists and would allow individuals to decide whether they would be willing to travel abroad, he said.

On aerial surveillance, Saadi asserted that Iraq was not ruling out U-2 flights but only questioned whether their safety could be guaranteed at a time when the United States and Britain are also flying fighter jets over northern and southern Iraq to enforce “no-fly” zones. However, he hinted that a compromise was in the works and that the issue would be solved satisfactorily before Friday’s report to the Security Council by Blix and ElBaradei.

Neither the inspectors nor Saadi was definitive on what form an Iraqi solution would take, but the one under consideration seems to involve flying a combination of aerial surveillance “platforms” simultaneously. Besides U-2s, they could include French-built Mirage jets, Russian Antonovs with night vision, helicopters and German-built unmanned drones.

The inspectors already have access to satellite images of Iraq, but the other surveillance aircraft would give them more tools and more flexibility to focus on specific areas at specific times and would allow aerial surveillance to take place during darkness.

Both ElBaradei and Blix said they remain convinced that the inspection program can be made to work if given time, especially with the latest signs they see that the Iraqis are becoming more cooperative.

“ ‘Breakthrough’ is a bit too strong a word for what we are seeing, but we are seeing some more positive elements, and I am glad to register that,” Blix said. “I would much prefer to see inspections than some other evolution.”