Forecast Grim for Woods’ ‘03 Debut

In a fairy tale, Tiger Woods would tee off today in the Buick Invitational, split the fairway with his first competitive drive of 2003 and quiet the doubts in the back of his mind about whether his surgically repaired left knee would hold up to the rigors of competition.

In reality, however, Mother Nature may trump Mother Goose and delay Woods’ highly anticipated PGA Tour season debut at least a day.

Rain fell all day at Torrey Pines Golf Course on Wednesday. The rain, heavy in the afternoon, flooded the fairways and greens on both the North and South courses, making them unplayable and turning postponement of the first round into a strong possibility.

“If we had to go [Wednesday] we couldn’t do it,” said Mark Russell, the PGA Tour rules official who will make the decision whether to play when he arrives at the course today. “It needs to stop raining and let the course drain.”

Those anticipating Woods’ return are hoping for just that.

Woods had surgery to remove a benign cyst from his anterior cruciate ligament in December. He has spent the last two months rehabilitating the knee and missed the first five tournaments of the season. He began hitting full shots about three weeks ago and did not hit drivers until about a week ago. He said the knee is close to full strength and he is eager to get in a competitive situation to find out.

“It’s a heck of a lot better than it was last year,” he said. “I’ll tell you that.”

But still, Woods admits he may be tentative. Last year, he said, he played in pain every week.

“I don’t know how the knee is going to react,” Woods said. “Is that a little disconcerting? Yeah, because I don’t know.... But hopefully it feels as good as it does now at the end of Sunday.”

Some say Woods’ return signifies the real start of the PGA Tour season, but the statistics say otherwise.

During Woods’ absence, Ernie Els won twice and Vijay Singh, Mike Weir and Davis Love III each won once. Woods, gunning for a record fifth consecutive PGA Tour money title, is $1.81 million behind leading money winner Els. Woods has never been that far behind the leading money winner in his seven-year PGA Tour career. If Woods is to make up any ground this week, he’ll have his work cut out for him. Els is not playing, but Singh and Love are.

Phil Mickelson, Charles Howell III and David Toms are also entered and hungry to join the winner’s circle. The presence of Woods in an already top-notch field elevates the tournament status.

“The season begins at Mercedes, it’s not when Tiger shows up,” said Len Mattiace, who will defend his Nissan Open title at Riviera County Club next week. “But I do think Tiger has a presence just because of what he’s done. He’s the guy with the best record, so you do know that he’s there.”

And despite the longest layoff of his professional career, Woods resumes his spot as the favorite.

“Tiger will be hard to beat,” said Jose Maria Olazabal, the defending champion of the Buick Invitational. “He wouldn’t come to play any tournaments without being prepared the best way possible. Everyone seems to be feeling the same way about that.”

Mickelson and Woods, both California natives, have each won here and might hold a home-course advantage in trying to unseat Olazabal. Californians have won 10 of the last 15 tournaments at Torrey Pines, though Olazabal, a Spaniard, won in the first year after the South course underwent a significant renovation to land the 2008 U.S. Open.

“We’ve lost our home-course advantage,” Mickelson said. “The greens are brand new, every one of them. They don’t break the same. We have lost all of the knowledge we had gained....”

The weather situation also changes the course. At 7,208 yards, the South Course is among the longest courses on tour. Wet conditions will make it tougher to play.

“The golf course will be playing really long,” Olazabal said. “Clearly, it’s a different golf course from last year’s.”

And with Woods playing, a different kind of tournament. That is, of course, if it begins.

The forecast called for rain to continue through today. If that happens, a first-round postponement is inevitable, but Russell is optimistic. “Has anyone ever missed a forecast?” Russell said. “Right now, our plan is to do everything we can to start on time and to finish on time.”

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The Top 3

A look at the top three finishers after five events on the PGA Tour (*--Denotes playing in Buick Invitational):

*--* 1 2 3 Total Ernie Els 2 -- -- 2 Mike Weir* 1 -- 1 2 Chris DiMarco -- -- 2 2 Tim Herron -- -- 2 2 Davis Love III 1 -- -- 1 Vijay Singh* 1 -- -- 1 Aaron Baddeley* -- 1 -- 1 K.J. Choi -- 1 -- 1 Jay Haas* -- 1 -- 1 John Huston -- 1 -- 1 Tom Lehman* -- 1 -- 1 Rocco Mediate -- 1 -- 1 Harrison Frazar -- -- 1 1 Robert Gamez -- -- 1 1 Retief Goosen -- -- 1 1 Tim Petrovic -- -- 1 1 Note: Herron and Weir tied for second at Pebble Beach; There have been four ties for third in the five tournaments

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