Dean’s Momentum Stirs Opponents’ Fears

Boosted by a surge in fund-raising, Howard Dean has emerged as an unlikely pacesetter in the Democratic presidential contest, outmaneuvering candidates with higher name recognition, loftier resumes and broader political contacts.

Anger fueled the early rise of the former Vermont governor, stoked by liberals upset about the war in Iraq and what they see as the party’s mushy message in the 2002 campaign. But now money makes Dean and his message a greater factor than ever.

And that is making some other Democrats nervous.

Thanks to a strong outpouring of contributions in the last week, Dean had raised more than $7 million by the time the year’s second quarter ended at midnight Monday, according to his campaign Web site. The site, which demonstrates the Dean campaign’s aggressive use of the Internet, offered updates throughout the day in a bid to spur further donations.

His fund-raising performance -- well over double his showing in the year’s first three months -- is expected to put Dean at or near the top of the second-quarter money chase among Democrats. Even more significantly, it should ensure the viability of his candidacy for some time to come.

“It’s obvious that he’s going to be a durable, long-standing player in this campaign,” said Bill Carrick, a strategist for Democratic Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, another of the Democratic presidential contenders.

But, Carrick added, “It’s still a long way out. The challenge now is for [Dean] to raise up his game another notch or two and show he can stay competitive.”

Gephardt and other leading Democratic hopefuls were expected to report from $4 million to $6 million each in contributions for the second quarter -- a fraction of President Bush’s projected $30 million, but on pace to compete for their party’s nomination when the voting starts in January. Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, counting on about $6 million in the quarter, hoped to finish with the most cash on hand among Democrats, $11 million after adding up his total for the year.

But as of Monday night, only Dean’s campaign was releasing fund-raising figures. Few expected such a strong showing, in part because many of the donations came in a rush. His campaign said it collected more than half of the receipts for the quarter in the last nine days -- about $800,000 on Monday alone.

No longer an insurgent, Dean now is seen by most analysts as among the front-runners for the party’s nomination. And that is something few would have imagined just a few months ago.

Even after he gained a loyal following by criticizing the buildup to war with Iraq -- along with Democrats who backed the Bush policy -- Dean was treated as little more than an irritant in the contest. Most attention remained focused on Gephardt, the former Democratic leader in the House, and a trio of senators: Kerry, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and John Edwards of North Carolina.

Lieberman and Edwards, however, now are having to stave off doubts about their viability -- neither has shown much strength in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the nomination battle begins.

Meanwhile, some establishment Democrats are starting to contemplate having their party led in 2004 by someone they consider a sure loser.

“They’re worried [Dean] is too far left and he’ll be a George McGovern,” said a Democratic House leadership aide, referring to the 1972 nominee who lost to President Nixon in a landslide. “I don’t think a lot of people see Howard Dean winning the nomination. But just thinking about it makes them nervous.”

That hardly worries the Dean camp. Indeed, Dean’s blunt-spoken style and apparent contempt for the party establishment -- his opponents are typically dismissed as “those Washington candidates” -- have contributed mightily to his appeal among the party’s grass-roots activists.

The best illustration of Dean’s appeal -- and the concern it has sparked among leading Democrats -- may have been provided by his appearance two Sundays ago on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Such interviews are a political rite of passage and must-see TV for the insiders who frame Washington’s prevailing wisdom. And by most accounts, Dean performed miserably. He bickered with the host, Tim Russert, evaded some questions and equivocated in response to others. Most egregiously, in the eyes of critics, he could only guess at how many U.S. troops were on active duty around the world and incorrectly estimated the number in Iraq.

No matter, at least to some. In the days that followed, contributions to the campaign skyrocketed, according to aides. (The period also included Dean’s formal announcement speech and efforts to build support through an online straw poll conducted by MoveOn.org, a left-leaning group. Dean won 44% of the roughly 300,000 votes cast, easily finishing first.)

“People watched [Dean’s appearance on ‘Meet the Press’] and said, ‘Hey, there’s a guy who admits he doesn’t know the answer. You never see anybody in Washington do that,’ ” said Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager.

But as the appearance also demonstrated, Dean has managed to avoid much of the critical analysis that attaches itself to a candidate thought to have a serious chance of winning the nomination.

“I think he’s been treated as a novelty up to this point,” said Jim Jordan, Kerry’s campaign manager. “I don’t think a lot of people have bothered to closely scrutinize him the way other candidates have been scrutinized. I suspect now that’s going to change.”

The Dean campaign, for its part, pushed ahead with its next unorthodox move -- an Internet-based effort to gather tens of thousands of backers across the country Wednesday and have each pen a personal note asking a Democrat in Iowa to support Dean.

“We’ve been telling people for months now what we’re doing” with grass-roots organizing and Internet fund-raising, Trippi said. “They would all roll their eyes. But I don’t think they’re rolling their eyes at us anymore.”