Dean Tries to Beat the Odds Against Outsiders

Obscurity. Electricity. Momentum. Opportunity. Disappointment.

For more than a quarter of a century, that has been the life cycle for the sort of insurgent presidential candidacy that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has fashioned in the race for the 2004 Democratic nomination.

From Democrats Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown and Bill Bradley to Republican John McCain, candidates who have run as outsiders -- criticizing their party’s direction -- have stunned the political world by generating more excitement and amassing more support than appeared possible when they entered the race, as Dean has done in recent weeks.

But since Jimmy Carter rode the post-Watergate demand for reform to the White House in 1976, every subsequent insurgent candidate has failed to win his party’s nomination. Each lost to a candidate who had greater support among the party establishment.

Dean’s ability to raise money quickly off the Internet provides him a critical asset unavailable to earlier outsiders, and he also may benefit because none of his rivals has emerged as the favorite of the Democratic elite.

But even with such advantages, experts say, Dean still faces many of the same challenges that have derailed previous insurgents. Those center on a primary calendar and nomination rules that benefit candidates with the most endorsements and money.

Compounding the problem for outsiders is the fact that they’ve often been the subject of severe mood swings in the media -- rising with the help of positive coverage only to face withering press skepticism and scrutiny once they show strength.

“For the outsider candidate, it is inevitable that ... there will be a sense of: ‘Wait a minute. Who is this guy? Do we really know who he is? Do we really want to trust the party to him? And is this thing out of control?’ ” said Hart, now a Denver lawyer.

No previous insurgent has demonstrated as much support as early as Dean, who led the Democratic field in fund-raising over the past three months and is running strongly in the latest Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, said his candidate’s early emergence has defied the pattern of nomination contests. Usually, he said, the establishment candidate like Walter F. Mondale or George W. Bush dominates attention in the early stages of the race, and the insurgent struggles for notice and money until Iowa and New Hampshire.

Dean has seized the national spotlight by establishing himself as the most formidable outsider in the race. Meanwhile, a divided party establishment is unlikely to unite behind one contender until after the first contests winnow the field.

“This is still a very steep hill,” Trippi said. “But the process has totally been turned upside down. With all the focus being on Howard Dean, we are becoming the strongest insurgency in the history of the party.”

Still, Dean faces problems common to all insurgents, beginning with the acceleration of the primary calendar. When Carter won in 1976, half of the delegates to the convention weren’t selected until 11 weeks after the first contest in New Hampshire, according to research by Northeastern University political scientist William G. Mayer.

Since then, both Democrats and Republicans have dramatically compressed the primary calendar. Next year, about two-thirds of the pledged delegates to the Democratic convention will be selected within six weeks of the first contest.

In some cases, that front-loading can help a little-known candidate. The momentum from an unexpectedly strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire can produce a surge that propels an outsider everywhere else; such a wave almost carried Hart past the heavily favored Mondale in 1984.

But mostly, front-loading has benefited candidates with the most support from the party establishment -- something analysts believe was a principal motivation for changing the rules. While Carter had time to raise money and build support after his initial success, the new calendar favors those candidates with the money, endorsements and interest group support to build nationwide organizations before voting begins.

“Front-loading hurts [outsiders] because of the cost and difficulty of running everywhere at once,” Hart said.

Dean’s breakthrough at raising money via the Internet could help him solve the financial problems that front-loading creates for outsiders. Except for Bradley, almost all insurgents have struggled to raise money before the voting began. And even when outsider candidates like Hart and McCain won New Hampshire, the front-loaded schedule made it difficult for them to raise new money fast enough through direct mail or fund-raising dinners to spend it effectively in the next states on the calendar.

But largely through his success on the Internet, Dean has demonstrated he can raise sums comparable to anyone in the field. If Dean were to perform better than expected in Iowa or New Hampshire in January, he might be able to quickly replenish his treasury by soliciting his huge list of Internet donors.

Of the 44,313 supporters who donated to Dean over the Internet in the past three months, just 75 donated the maximum $2,000 contribution; the rest will be able to give again, instantly, by credit card -- many of them in contributions small enough that the money will be matched with federal funds.

Trippi said Dean’s fund-raising will allow the campaign to send paid staff by late this summer into the key states that will vote in February, such as Arizona and Oklahoma. Typically, insurgents have been able to afford only skeleton operations in the second round of contests until they make a splash in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Trippi said Dean has another advantage over previous insurgent candidates because he has already attracted thousands of supporters in these states through his Web site and monthly gatherings orchestrated through Meetup.com, an Internet site that allows like-minded people to get together.

But John Emerson, a Los Angeles investment banker who served as Hart’s California campaign chairman in 1984, said that even with more money and volunteers than most insurgents, Dean will be challenged to build an effective political organization in all the states that vote early next year. The reason is that Dean would be unlikely to draw much support from elected officials or party interest groups, like labor.

Without such established networks, fielding effective local operations in so many states at once can be “crushing,” even with money in the bank, said Eric Hauser, Bradley’s communications director in 2000.

The conundrum for insurgent candidates is that the anti-establishment message that attracts grass-roots passion typically alienates almost all party leaders. And that hostility has carried a price for all outsider candidates since Carter.

The most tangible manifestation of the problem is the “super-delegates” that Democrats have allowed to vote at their nominating conventions since 1984. The super-delegates include leading elected officials and “distinguished party leaders” such as former President Clinton.

In 2004, the super-delegates will cast 798 votes at the convention, nearly 37% of the 2,160 required to win the nomination. Given Dean’s attacks on party leadership, analysts expect he will draw little of their support.

Endorsements could be more important to Dean in another respect. Insurgents who strike a chord early invariably face a counterstrike from established candidates questioning their ideas, experience and commitment to party ideals -- doubts often amplified by the media and party interest groups. In the months ahead, Dean could face much tougher questions not only from his rivals but from the news media -- as he did recently in a tumultuous showdown on issues from defense to gay marriage with host Tim Russert on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“There is an institutional resistance to the dark horse winning it quickly,” Hart said.

Once the questions mount, experts said, insurgents desperately need prominent party officials to send a cue to voters by vouching for them. But the outsiders -- after months denouncing the party leadership -- have typically found few officials willing to stand with them.

As Dean continues to gain strength, such attacks are likely awaiting him as well. Which means this impassioned outsider soon may need nothing more urgently than insiders who will rise to his defense.