Bush Finds His Kind of Diplomacy Goes Only So Far

As he telephones one world leader after another in search of support for a possible war against Iraq, President Bush is discovering the limitations of his brand of personal diplomacy.

From the start of his presidency, Bush has sought to deal with foreign leaders by stressing personal connections -- most famously when he declared after a two-hour summit that he had seen Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s soul and found him trustworthy.

But his uphill quest for votes at the United Nations has shown in bold relief that personal affinity, Bush-style, cannot compensate fully for differences with other aspects of his administration’s diplomacy.

He is hardly the first U.S. president to apply personal charm when dealing with other heads of state. Bush’s father and Bill Clinton were famous for ceaselessly tending to their ties with foreign leaders.

What the younger Bush is encountering now, though, may be a realization that no amount of schmoozing can compensate for a go-it-alone tendency in conducting foreign policy -- such as withdrawing from a key arms control treaty with Moscow in order to build a U.S. missile defense system and abandoning an international treaty on global warming.

“Effective personal politics is a plus, not only in diplomacy. But charm has great limits,” said Fred I. Greenstein, a presidential scholar at Princeton University.

Personal diplomacy “works well when there’s a common interest or a common value and when maybe something needs a personal nudge,” added Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University. “But when interests and policies diverge, personal diplomacy isn’t going to make a difference.”

As a showdown vote nears in the United Nations on the effort to disarm Iraq, Bush has failed, at least so far, to win support for his tough stance from Putin and Mexico’s Vicente Fox, two presidents whom he has wooed with special ardor.

Despite his courtship, Bush has not delivered on key goals sought by each man, such as gaining legal status for millions of Mexicans working in the United States, or helping Russia become a World Trade Organization member.

“The problem [with Bush’s approach] is, you can say it’s personal diplomacy, but if it’s a one-way street, it’s not personal diplomacy,” said James B. Steinberg, a foreign policy expert who served as Clinton’s deputy national security advisor.

Barely a month into his presidency, Bush made Mexico his first foreign stop as president, calling on Fox, whom he knew from his days as governor of Texas. Bush went to the Fox family hacienda to call on Fox’s mother -- and pecked her on the cheek. In September 2001, Fox came to Washington in what was the first state visit of the Bush presidency.

During two hours of talks with Putin in their first meeting, Bush told him he intended to withdraw from the ABM treaty and to back the expansion of NATO -- right up to the Russian border. Putin went along in each case, though not happily.

Yet the Russian emerged from the meeting in a 16th century Slovenian castle in June 2001 seemingly charmed, declaring that the talks had gone better than he had expected.

While they talked, the leaders exchanged anecdotes about their daughters and before the discussion was over, Bush had invited Putin to visit his Texas ranch; Putin promptly issued a reciprocal invitation.

To varying degrees, Bush has sought to apply the soft touch with most other leaders, including China’s outgoing president, Jiang Zemin, whom he also invited to the ranch.

Since the Bush administration launched an all-out diplomatic initiative in recent weeks to obtain new U.N. backing to quickly disarm Iraq, the president has spoken with dozens of world leaders.

On Wednesday, he telephoned the leaders of Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the Philippines -- as well as Putin.

The glaring exception in this diplomatic offensive has been German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who drew Bush’s fury last fall during Schroeder’s reelection bid by stressing his opposition to war against Iraq.

After Schroeder won, Bush snubbed him by not placing a traditional congratulatory call. He also ignored a letter from Schroeder.

The two last spoke, briefly, at a dinner of the leaders of the NATO countries in November in Prague.

In contrast, Bush has maintained his ties with French President Jacques Chirac -- even though Chirac also is an outspoken foe of Bush’s war plans.

The difference in treatment is based on Bush’s belief that Schroeder had not been forthright with him in discussions about Iraq, whereas Chirac did not hide his disagreement, according to White House and diplomatic sources.

A central question among diplomats and long-time Bush watchers is how the president -- a man who prizes loyalty -- will react to the opposition from so many world leaders to his goal of effecting a “regime change” in Baghdad.

Will Bush forgive, if not forget?

Or, as Bruce Buchanan, a University of Texas presidential historian, put it, will Bush choose the path of “No More Mr. Nice Guy”?

The president may have provided a glimpse of his inclination during his prime-time news conference last week, when he was asked whether the United States would continue to back Turkey’s desire to join the European Union if Turkey does not allow U.S. troops to be based there as part of an attack on Iraq.

“I support Turkey going into the EU,” Bush said. “Turkey’s a friend. They’re a NATO ally. We will continue to work with Turkey.”