Out of Their Depth

Just when the defending World Series champions could use a little help in replacing injured center fielder Darin Erstad, there are no angels in the outfield.

The lingering absence of Erstad exposes short-and long-term outfield weaknesses, flaws that have jeopardized the team’s chances to return to the playoffs this season and could require costly corrective action.

In the five weeks since Erstad last played, the Angels have fallen from one game to 8 1/2 games out of first place in the American League West, with inconsistent play from substitutes Eric Owens and Jeff DaVanon. And, because the Angels have not drafted many outfielders in recent years, there are few appealing options at the upper levels of the minor league system.

In the seven drafts since they selected Erstad with the first overall pick in 1995, the Angels have not chosen an outfielder in the first three rounds. For the first time since 1983, when Baseball America began its annual ranking of the top 10 prospects in each organization, the Angels have no outfielders in their top 10.

They plan to draft some next week, but the kids selected will be years away from approaching Anaheim and no help as the Angels ponder how long to maintain their current alignment of Garret Anderson in left field, Erstad in center and Tim Salmon in right.

None of the Angels’ minor league outfielders has established himself as a player solid enough to start in Anaheim next season. One team official, asked what he sees among the outfielders at the top rungs of the farm system, said dryly, “I don’t see a Dunn,” a reference to Adam Dunn, the 23-year-old Cincinnati outfielder who leads the major leagues in home runs.

After the Angels won the World Series, General Manager Bill Stoneman chose to keep the championship roster largely intact and offered a contract to reserve outfielder Orlando Palmeiro, who hit .300 last season. When Salmon sat out almost a month because of injury last summer, the Angels went 16-6 and Palmeiro hit .339.

Stoneman read the market correctly but still lost Palmeiro. Stoneman offered him one year at $1 million, same as his 2002 salary -- and the same deal accepted by designated hitter Brad Fullmer, who made $3.75 million last year. Palmeiro wanted two years, guaranteed, and a nice raise. He eventually signed with St. Louis for one year at $700,000.

The Angels replaced Palmeiro with Owens, signed as a free agent for $925,000. Since Erstad’s injury, the Angels are 15-17 and Owens is hitting .200, having recently lost playing time to DaVanon. In his fifth stint with the Angels, DaVanon is hitting .452 in his last nine starts after hitting .143 in his first eight.

Once Erstad returns, the Angels can turn their attention from patchwork repair in center field to the long-term outfield foundation.

The Angels could ask Erstad to move to left field or first base next year, in the hope of reducing the injury risk to a player never fearful of diving for balls or slamming into walls. Salmon, at 34, has been on the disabled list four times in the last five years and is regularly removed for defensive purposes, so they could broach the delicate topic of his playing less in right field and more at designated hitter.

But those questions appear moot so long as the Angels cannot produce a prospect ready to replace Erstad or Salmon. They could buy a free agent, of course, or trade away premium prospects at other positions to acquire an outfielder, an expensive price either way and one Stoneman tends to reject.

When they discussed a trade for Carlos Beltran, Kansas City’s star center fielder, the Royals asked for a package that started with first baseman Casey Kotchman and catcher Jeff Mathis, two of the Angels’ brightest prospects and each a first-round pick. The talks ended there.

Providing the Angels’ outfield depth are DaVanon, Gary Johnson, Robb Quinlan and Barry Wesson, none drafted before the 10th round -- and all older than Beltran, 26, who is in his fifth full major league season.

According to a Baseball America study, a first-round draft pick has a one-in-four chance of developing into a major league regular, a second-round pick has a one-in-10 chance, a fifth-round pick a one-in-20 chance.

“If you’re not spending premium picks on outfielders, then you’re not going to get premium guys through the system,” said Allan Simpson, editor of Baseball America. “They’ve got some pretty marginal guys.”

The Angels have not abandoned hope that Johnson might emerge as a corner outfielder or designated hitter or that DaVanon might secure at least a bench spot in Anaheim. Still, the outfielder in that group most likely to start for the Angels next year is Quinlan -- at first base.

That leaves the Angels rooting hard for Nathan Haynes, whom the Oakland Athletics selected in the first round of the 1997 draft and traded to Anaheim two years later, as the key prospect in a five-player deal that sent Randy Velarde and Omar Olivares to Oakland.

Haynes, 23, is hitting .303 at double-A Arkansas, with 14 stolen bases in 16 attempts, and is expected to be promoted soon to triple-A Salt Lake. The organization is divided on his durability and ability to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed. However, if the Angels want to develop a starting outfielder from within their farm system before 2006, it might be Haynes or bust.

“It’s really going to hinge on Nathan Haynes,” Stoneman said. “If it’s Nathan Haynes, we’ve got the guy we need.”

Even with the dearth of outfield prospects, Stoneman said he would not tell scouting director Donny Rowland to select an outfielder with the Angels’ first pick in next week’s draft.

“It’s the best available player,” Stoneman said. “You don’t know what your needs are going to be three years from now.”

The Angels select 23rd, and Rowland said he has targeted four outfielders, three infielders and four pitchers. Baseball sources said the Angels were extremely interested in Louisiana State shortstop Aaron Hill. The Angels selected Hill out of high school, in the seventh round of the 2000 draft, but could not sign him.

“It’s a ranking of players on the board,” Rowland said. “If you jump a guy based strictly on need, you may get a player of less return, or one of greater risk.

“Certainly, there’s an awareness of the outfield situation, just like there was two years ago with catching or building pitching depth.”

Stoneman and Rowland, hired after the 1999 season, inherited a minor league system ranked last among the 30 major league teams by Baseball America. The Angels rank fifth this year.

So there is talent in the system. With Anderson, Erstad and Salmon together in Anaheim since 1997 -- and Jim Edmonds through 1999 -- outfield prospects were an understandably low draft priority. Still, an organization dedicated to self-sustenance cannot ignore player development at any position, lest an injury -- like the one to Erstad -- create unexpected need.

“You’ve got to be a little more well-rounded when you draft,” Simpson said. “This is precisely the reason why.”

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*--* The Ex- Factor Orlando Palmeiro became the Angels’ regular fourth outfielder in 1999, filling in for injured outfielders or just giving them a day off. He also played a solid center field. A look at his numbers: YEAR AB R H 2B HR RBI AVG OB% 1999 317 46 88 12 1 23 278 364 Fielding: 152 putouts, 6 assists, 1 error, .994 FA 2000 243 38 73 20 0 25 300 395 Fielding: 117 putouts, 6 assists, 2 errors, .984 FA 2001 230 29 56 10 2 23 243 319 Fielding: 86 putouts, 2 assists, 1 error, .989 FA 2002 263 35 79 12 0 31 300 368 Fielding: 146 putouts, 3 assists, 1 error, .993 FA Overall 1,053 148 296 54 3 102 281 381 Fielding: 501 putouts, 17 assists, 5 errors, .990 FA Note: The players who replaced Palmeiro, Eric Owens and Jeff DaVanon, are hitting a combined .250 with a .985 fielding average

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*--* Angels in Draft Since the Angels selected Darin Erstad with the first overall pick in the 1995 draft, they have not selected an outfielder before the fourth round. In the seven drafts between then and now, they have selected a total of two outfielders in the first five rounds. Top pick and number of outfielders drafted by Angels in first five rounds: Year Top pick P OF 1996 Chuck Abbott SS 0 1997 Troy Glaus 3B 0 1998 Seth Etherton P 1 1999 John Lackey P 0 2000 Joe Torres P 0 2001 Casey Kotchman 1B 0 2002 Joe Saunders P 1

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