Too Many Doubts, Not Enough Chiefs

Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs’ 24-19, streak-ending loss Sunday was surprising. And the biggest surprise was:

a) It happened in Cincinnati, pro football’s most trusted and reliable welcome mat since 1990.

b) It happened against the Bengals.

c) It took a headstrong young receiver hitting a lucky guess and turned him into Broadway Chad Johnson.

d) It happened the Sunday after Veterans Day, in Week 11 of a 17-week regular season.

After nine victories in as many starts in 2003, Kansas City finally lost, to the longest-running joke in the NFL, and after studying the stats and breaking down the roster, you have to ask about the Chiefs:

What took them so long?

Has the demise of a prominent winning streak ever been more widely anticipated than that of the Chiefs? At 9-0, Kansas City was the league’s last undefeated team, but as the Chiefs danced their way through a soft schedule, they were more successful at winning games than winning over skeptics.

Heading into Cincinnati, they led the NFL in victories and buts.

They’re unbeaten, but whom have they beaten?

They’re running away in the AFC West, but where would they be without Dante Hall?

They’re scoring loads of points, but have you taken a close look at that defense?

They’re talking Super Bowl, but can you win one of those if Trent Green is your quarterback?

By the latter stages of the streak, Coach Dick Vermeil’s interview sessions took on an almost apologetic tone. Dick, your team is 9-0 -- what do you have to say for yourself? Even Sports Illustrated seemed to hedge its bet when it put the Chiefs on its cover last week with the following disclaimer:

THE CHIEFS

PERFECT

(SO FAR)

Inside the magazine, Sports Illustrated predicted the Chiefs would lose to the Bengals. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati’s third-year receiver, hardly went out on a limb when he “guaranteed” the Bengals would beat the Chiefs. He got the most publicity, but the forest was full of Kansas City doubters and Chief disbelievers.

When the end did come, it followed a familiar, ironic path: a long game-breaking punt return, which had become so important to the basic Kansas City game plan.

Cincinnati led, 10-6, early in the fourth quarter when Peter Warrick did to the Chiefs what Hall had done to the rest of the league three times in the season’s first half -- win a game with a runback. Warrick’s 68-yard punt return gave the Bengals a 17-6 lead, and his 77-yard touchdown reception a few minutes later proved decisive.

If the regular season ended today, and the Chiefs wouldn’t be unhappy if it did, Cincinnati would be joining Kansas City in the playoffs. Amazing but true: At 5-5, after consecutive victories and a 4-1 record since their mid-October open date, the Bengals are in first place in the AFC North. Baltimore, a 9-6 loser to Miami, also is 5-5, but the Bengals have beaten the Ravens once already and own the better record within the division -- 2-1 to the Ravens’ 1-2.

Six games remain in the season, which is long for a reason. The intent is to allow enough time for the cream to rise to the top. Considering what happens to cream these days -- first it’s diluted by free agency, then thinned by expansion, then skimmed by the salary cap -- all 16 games are usually required.

Already, the Chiefs are starting to settle. At the Week 11 mark, three AFC teams -- Tennessee, New England and Indianapolis -- look to be better Super Bowl threats than Kansas City.

Tennessee wasn’t overwhelming against Jacksonville, holding off Byron Leftwich at the end to preserve a 10-3 triumph at home. But the Titans are 8-2 with a five-game winning streak, the league’s sturdiest quarterback in Steve McNair and a defense that has given up more than 17 points only once since mid-September.

Similarly, New England had to rely on defense in the All Bills No Buffalo Bowl, Bill Belichick versus Bill Parcells at Gillette Stadium. Belichick’s Patriots defeated Parcells’ Dallas Cowboys, 12-0, in the kind of belt-tightening, field-position struggle that tends to overtake the NFL once the season reaches January.

Belichick won a Super Bowl this way two seasons ago, and has the Patriots positioned for another run at 8-2 after six consecutive victories, the league’s longest active winning streak.

Indianapolis is the AFC’s third 8-2 team after figuring out what went wrong in last season’s 41-0 playoff loss to the New York Jets, or at least some of it. In Sunday’s rematch, the Jets proved they could still score against the Colts, but this time, they couldn’t stop Peyton Manning, or Tony Dungy’s bag of trick plays.

A fake spike for a touchdown here. A fake field goal for a touchdown there. Manning passes for 401 yards. Colts win, 38-31. Dungy, evidently, had been thinking about this one awhile.

Cream update, NFC:

Philadelphia, St. Louis, Green Bay -- all rising, and it’s about time.

Minnesota, Dallas -- both settling, giving way to the relentless laws of gravity and physical ability.

Philadelphia defeated the free-falling New York Giants, 28-10, to reclaim a share of the NFC East lead with Dallas at 7-3.

St. Louis reacquainted itself with the 103-yard rushing day from Marshall Faulk, rallying to beat Chicago, 23-21, to stay abreast with Seattle atop the NFC West at 7-3.

Green Bay caught Tampa Bay at the right place and time -- in Tampa, where the Buccaneers can no longer remember how they got to the Super Bowl last season -- and won a 20-13 grinder while Minnesota was losing its fourth in a row, 28-18, to Oakland.

The Packers are 2-2 in the their last four, but in the process have chopped Minnesota’s NFC North lead to a single game. Once 6-0, the Vikings are 6-4.

Meanwhile, Carolina won again, defeating Washington, 20-17, to improve to 8-2. What does this say about the Panthers, who continue to defy expectation by refusing to fade?

Only this: There has to be one in every crowd.

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Best Records

Best regular-season records in since AFL-NFL merger in 1970 (league switched to 16-game schedule in 1978). Teams with asterisk won Super Bowl:

*--* Team Season Record Miami* 1972 14-0 San Francisco* 1984 15-1 Chicago* 1985 15-1 Minnesota 1998 15-1 Pittsburgh* 1978 14-2 Washington 1983 14-2 Miami 1984 14-2 Chicago 1986 14-2 N.Y. Giants* 1986 14-2 San Francisco* 1989 14-2 San Francisco 1990 14-2 Washington* 1991 14-2 San Francisco 1992 14-2 Atlanta 1998 14-2 Denver* 1998 14-2 Jacksonville 1999 14-2 St. Louis 2001 14-2

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