Recovery Evidence Mounts

Evidence is accumulating that the nation’s economic recovery is gaining momentum.

On Thursday, the Conference Board reported that its closely watched index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% in October, suggesting stronger economic activity in the coming year.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said fewer U.S. workers filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week.

The department said that for the week ended Nov. 15, new claims for jobless benefits declined by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to 355,000. For seven straight weeks claims have been below the 400,000 mark, suggesting that the job market is turning a corner.

“There’s been a steady stream -- rather than a trickle -- of good news,” said Tim O’Neill, chief economist for the Bank of Montreal and Harris Bank in Chicago. “We’re probably headed toward a torrent over the next few months.”

O’Neill said that after the recession ended in November 2001, the economy fluctuated between strength one quarter and weakness the next through 2002.

“What the leading indicators are pointing toward is that this is an economy on a much more solid roll than last year,” O’Neill said.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators increased to 113.6 last month after showing no change in September and a 0.4% rise in August. September’s figure was revised upward from an initially reported 0.2% dip.

The October rise was greater than the 0.2% increase most analysts had been forecasting.

The Conference Board, a business research group based in New York, said six of the 10 components of the leading indicators contributed to October’s increase -- a drop in initial claims for unemployment and gains in building permits, vendor performance, stock prices, consumer expectations and the spread in interest rates. The decliners were the money supply, new orders for capital goods, and new orders for consumer goods and materials. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.