Pre-Debate Buzz Centers on Who Won’t Be There

Five of 135 candidates in the recall race will take the stage at a Bay Area playhouse this afternoon for the first debate of the harried election, but much of the focus Tuesday centered on Arnold Schwarzenegger and his decision to skip the event.

Democrats condemned the movie star, saying he was being disrespectful to voters, and some Republicans chimed in as well.

At least two other debates are scheduled. Schwarzenegger has agreed to participate in only one, on Sept 17 in Sacramento. In that session -- unlike the others -- the candidates will get the questions in advance.

The decision to skip today’s forum entails some risk, as the debate could drive momentum and establish the campaign’s themes for days to come.

“The way elections are conducted these days, there are few opportunities when people really tune in for a brief time to see what’s happening,” said Thomas Hollihan, a professor and associate dean of the Annenberg School for Communication at USC. “Debates tend to be one of those moments.”

The candidates who were asked to participate qualified by receiving at least 4% support in either the most recent Field Poll or the last statewide vote. Each of the participants comes to the forum with a different key objective.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who is juggling a two-part campaign theme -- no on the recall, yes on his candidacy -- hoped to prove himself ready should Gov. Gray Davis be ousted. “I want people to see he’s the real deal,” said Richie Ross, Bustamante’s campaign strategist. “There’s no training wheels on this bike.”

State Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks and businessman Peter V. Ueberroth, two of Schwarzenegger’s GOP rivals, hoped to use the added attention to introduce themselves to voters still getting to know the field of contestants, with less than five weeks left until the Oct. 7 vote.

Arianna Huffington and Peter Camejo Jr. were also aiming to attract increased notice to their campaigns, which so far have drawn little support in opinion surveys.

During the first 30 minutes of the two-hour session, Davis will answer questions from a moderator, a panel of reporters and a handful of people chosen by the debate organizers. He will then exit the stage. The candidates to replace him will then participate in a 90-minute forum that will have a similar format.

Looking ahead to Thursday morning, David Doak, the governor’s image advisor, said the campaign hopes today’s questioners “take the toughest crack at him they can.”

“The best thing we can wake up to is Gray Davis going in for 30 minutes and facing the toughest questions that people have to ask, even experience some anger from the audience.... At the same time, we hope that will be a great contrast to the circus that may take place afterward.”

In an interview Tuesday with Tom Brokaw, aired on the NBC Nightly News, Davis previewed several themes he is expected to discuss today, calling the recall “a very humbling experience” but adding that Californians “want me to fight for their future.”

Asked about the state’s economic problems, Davis noted that California is part of the overall national economy. “I’m proud that since I’ve become governor, we have 850,000 more jobs than when I first took office,” he said. “And America, since the president took office, we’ve lost 3 million jobs. Some of those were lost in our state.”

The debate, which is sponsored by the Contra Costa Times and KTVU-TV, will take place in the glass-sheathed performing arts center in the affluent East Bay Area suburb of Walnut Creek. It will be carried on live radio and television at 4 p.m. throughout the state, including KTLA-TV (Channel 5) in Los Angeles, and will be broadcast nationwide on the C-SPAN cable network.

Schwarzenegger’s decision to stay away reflects a course he has pursued throughout his recall run. The actor and first-time candidate has limited his exposure to questions on most substantive issues and has favored controlled settings that allow him to be seen in public while minimizing the opportunities for give-and-take -- or potentially embarrassing gaffes.

The strategy carries it own peril, however, giving opponents the opportunity to raise questions about Schwarzenegger’s preparedness for office, his familiarity with state matters and his willingness to go through the rigors that other, less-celebrated candidates are forced to endure.

“I think it hurts him in the sense that, if you’re going to be governor and you have no political experience ... you’ve got to at some time convince voters that you’re capable,” said Joe Tuman, a professor of political and legal communication at San Francisco State University and an expert on debates.

“Even if you’re running as the outsider, people need to visualize you in that job,” he said.

Organizers of the debate had planned to have an empty chair on the stage this afternoon, underscoring Schwarzenegger’s refusal to attend, but changed their minds after his aides strenuously objected.

Still, critics were quick to seize on his decision to skip the debate.

“We are on the verge of reaching a critical mass that Arnold doesn’t have the stuff to be governor,” say Roy Behr, a Democratic campaign strategist. “His lack of participation in the debates is going to further that perception quite a lot.”

Dan Schnur, a consultant for Ueberroth, said Schwarzenegger ran the same political risk as George W. Bush, the early front-runner in the 2000 Republican presidential nominating fight.

Bush avoided debating before the leadoff New Hampshire primary and lost the state in a landslide to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

“If Bush had gone to those first two debates, John McCain never would have gotten above 10% in the polls,” said Schnur, who worked for McCain’s presidential campaign.

A spokesman for the Schwarzenegger organization brushed aside the criticism.

“Arnold will be campaigning publicly this week,” said press secretary Rob Stutzman. “He’s taking his message directly to the voters. A debate is one way that’s done. That’s why he’s committed to a debate later in the campaign.”

Indeed, Schwarzenegger conducted a round of interviews Tuesday afternoon with network television affiliates in Los Angeles. “Don’t worry about my way of getting the message out there, let me take care of that,” he said in his interview on KABC-TV (Channel 7).

“I think people are probably going to be sick and tired of me, they will see so much of me talking about the future of California.”

The interviews got Schwarzenegger on television on a day when several of the other candidates stayed out of sight, boning up as much as they could in advance of today’s forum.

Given the accelerated nature of the contest, there has been no time for the debate over debates that usually takes place, with candidates skirmishing on such matters as format, lighting and whether they stand up or sit down. There was little opportunity for aides to hype -- or seek to diminish -- expectations, and for the sort of rehearsals, with stopwatches and lecterns, that candidates typically undertake.

But the campaigns that are participating today did criticize the format of the Sept. 17 debate that Schwarzenegger prefers, particularly the advance release of the questions.

Organizers of that debate, which is sponsored by the California Broadcasters Assn., said that giving the candidates the questions in advance would raise the level of discussion.

“Now, the candidates will know that we know and the candidates know that their answers better not spin, they better be good, they better answer the questions, and they better have some specifics,” said Stan Statham, president of the broadcasters association.

Critics said the procedure would simply allow candidates to memorize lines and give canned answers.

“Why is that a test of anything?” said Ross. “It is your ability to confront the unexpected under pressure that is the test of leadership, not to rehearse your scripted answers.”

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Times staff writers Matea Gold, Gregg Jones, Daryl Kelley, Scott Martelle and Joel Rubin contributed to this report.