Poll watch

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This is another in a series of reports examining polls related to the California recall election.

Gallup Poll for CNN/USA Today

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What the poll says: Should Gov. Gray Davis be recalled?

Yes, remove Davis: 63%

No, keep Davis: 35%

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What the poll says: Who should replace Davis?

Arnold Schwarzenegger...40%

Cruz Bustamante...25%

Tom McClintock...18%

Peter Camejo...5%

Arianna Huffington...2%

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What to keep in mind: This poll projects a higher pro-recall vote than most other recent surveys. The figures are based on responses from people whom Gallup considered the most probable voters. By contrast, among all registered voters, the poll found that 55% supported the recall - a number more in line with most other recent polls.

Gallup decided whom to include as probable voters after asking questions about how interested poll respondents were in the election and how likely they were to vote. The poll assumed that turnout in the election will be 51% of California’s adult population, or roughly 70% of registered voters, which would be high by the standards of recent elections. Other recent polls done by the Public Policy Institute of California, the Field Corp. and The Times use additional questions - asking respondents about their voting histories, for example - to predict which people are most likely to vote. Those surveys have generally been based on a somewhat smaller projected turnout.

According to Gallup’s analysis of the data, people in their poll who said they were very likely to vote and were paying the most attention to the election were more likely than others to oppose Davis. As a result, “it is not surprising,” Gallup’s analysis said, that their probable voter sample leans strongly in favor of the recall. The poll was conducted just after the televised debate by the five leading candidates on the recall ballot.

The results were based on a telephone survey in English and Spanish, conducted Sept. 25 through 27, among a random sample of 1,007 California adults. The sample included 787 people who said they were registered to vote and 581 deemed probable voters. The sampling error for the probable voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Source: The Gallup Organization