8 Hurricanes Predicted for Atlantic

The Atlantic will probably see 14 named storms this year, 8 of them hurricanes and 3 of them intense hurricanes, a storm researcher said Friday.

The revised forecast by William Gray and his team at Colorado State University includes one more named storm than the previous forecast. The long-term average is about 10 named storms, including six hurricanes. Of those, two are “intense” hurricanes, defined as those with sustained wind of at least 111 mph.

The Colorado State team also warned that the chances of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the U.S. is 71%.

Higher hurricane numbers over the last seven to nine years indicate the United States has entered a period of increased storms that will last two to three decades, said Philip Klotzbach, an atmospheric research scientist on the forecast team.

The change correlates to an increase in surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and a decline in surface pressure in the tropical Atlantic.

Storms are given names when sustained wind reaches 39 mph. They become hurricanes if the speed increases to 74 mph.

The Atlantic hurricane names for 2004 are: Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter.