No Concession Speech from Dodgers Yet

Amid baseball’s widening parity, as reflected by the 16 teams that were in division and wild-card playoff contention last Sept. 1, the 2004 races are likely to mirror election-year politics.

There are seven teams that appear to be presumptive playoff candidates: the Angels, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics.

There are seven teams that look to be only Ralph Nader spoilers at best: the Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The other 16, including the Dodgers and every other team in the National League West, are almost impossible to separate and can be lumped into something of a John Edwards division -- meaning they may look very good at times and it will take most of the summer before determining if they are in or out.

Offering a one-man exit poll:

The American League divisions will be won by the Angels, Kansas City Royals and Yankees, with the A’s edging the Red Sox for the wild card.

The National League divisions will be won by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Astros and Phillies, with the Cubs edging the Florida Marlins for the wild card.

The World Series?

All indicators point to the best Angel team in the franchise’s 43-year history beating a Houston team inspired by the arrival of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte and aware that the chronological clock is ticking for the Rocket and a lineup that includes Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Jeff Kent.

As General Manager Jerry Hunsicker said on a sunny day in Florida, “A lot of these guys know this could be their last year together, and I think there’s a quiet determination to make it special.”

And where does this leave the Dodgers? Do they even get out of the primaries of April and May?

Well, considering Frank McCourt’s foreclosure on his election-year promise to acquire a hitter and his apparent lack of resources, let’s call them the Al Sharpton of the candidates.

It’s just hard to take them seriously.

Preparing the deck for 2004:

Tradition

What tradition? The season no longer opens with an afternoon game in Cincinnati. Nor does the national pastime even open in the Western Hemisphere, let alone in the contiguous 48. Baseball has sold its soul for a few million yen, draining the impact of opening day by continuing to export it to Japan, playing games that count at a time when most fans of the respective teams are still sleeping and in a place foreign to most of the players in more ways than one. Globalization is important to an industry increasingly more diversified on the field, but opening day is the wrong day to acknowledge that diversity, and Tokyo the wrong place. Santo Domingo would make more sense.

Curses

It won’t be the Billy Goat or the Bambino that frustrates the Cubs and Red Sox again this year. The Cubs face such a dogfight with the Astros and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central, and the Red Sox face so much of a similar battle with the Yankees and improved Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles in the East that their long-blunted hopes will be more apt to turn on fragile field and physical developments than anything mystical. That is exactly why the two teams are privately nervous about the Achilles’ tendon problems that will sideline Mark Prior (who has also been experiencing elbow stiffness) and Nomar Garciaparra through April at least. Achilles conditions are among the most delicate, and the speculation is that both could be out even longer.

Rivalry

It won’t be long before the Red Sox and Yankees are at it for the first time in 2004. They meet in a four-game Fenway Park series on the second weekend of the season, and again in New York a week later. The heat, verbal and otherwise, keeps building between these ancient foes, but the best part of it is the caliber of the talent and the competition on the field. As Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar said in the Boston Globe on Friday: “These are just two teams crushing their horns together and going for it. It doesn’t get any better. You can throw as much fuel as you want on the fire, but the fire is already hot.”

Steroids

If MLB and the players’ union can reach agreement, as they have, on a stronger and more comprehensive program that would meet Olympic standards and permit the playing of a World Cup tournament next spring -- baseball officials are hopeful their agreement on testing and banned substances will receive international approval next week -- can it be assumed they are willing to rework the bargaining agreement to incorporate a similar program? Not necessarily. The World Cup, maintains the union, is strictly voluntary for the players, a major distinction from their mandatory contract obligations. Yet the dialogue that produced the World Cup agreement has to be viewed as a good thing, and the comments coming from the union regarding a stronger program have seemed less rigid, possibly in recognition that many of its members desire a stronger program. How it plays out isn’t clear, but baseball knows the BALCO shadow remains an ominous backdrop to the season.

Homeless

The Montreal Expos are about to embark on another season of demanding travel. They are scheduled for 22 games in Puerto Rico, play 23 of their first 26 games on the road, and then play 25 in a row on the road in midsummer. Baseball could not have turned the situation into more of a mess, and no resolution is in sight. MLB still insists it will announce at the All-Star break where the Expos will play next season, but two members of the relocation committee say they aren’t sure that’s realistic. The ugly notion that the Expos will remain without a permanent residence through the 2006 season, after which baseball can reconsider contraction, has resurfaced. The worst part of it is that while team administration -- Tony Tavares, Omar Minaya and Frank Robinson -- has done a terrific job of keeping the Expos competitive, the commissioner’s budget restraints forced the departures of Vladimir Guerrero and Javier Vazquez in the off-season, and next to go could be the respected middle infield duo of Jose Vidro and Orlando Cabrera.

Hot Seats

Another season and another round of managerial firings. Terry Francona steps into a hornet’s nest in Boston, Lee Mazzilli inherits a Baltimore team that invested millions in a lineup makeover and Ozzie Guillen is being asked to handle Frank Thomas and a Chicago White Sox clubhouse that hasn’t been the most peaceful in recent years. All, however, are likely to get the minimum of a full year to sort it out. The carpet is much thinner for Jimy Williams in Houston, Larry Bowa in Philadelphia, Bob Brenly in Arizona and Jim Tracy in Los Angeles. Tracy is being asked to pull rabbits out of a hat, and it’s too bad. The new owner and general manager should have created a perception of stability by extending Tracy’s contract beyond the end of the season -- whether they meant to stick with it or not. As it is, with no long-term money on the line, guess who becomes the even easier scapegoat if the Dodgers stumble through the first half?

Say What?

No need to wait for the Yankees-Red Sox matchup to hear some chirping.

* The Dodgers open against the San Diego Padres on Monday on the heels of the spring exchange that began with Kevin Towers, the Padre general manager, questioning the Dodgers’ character.

* The Marlins open against the Expos on Tuesday after a near-brawl in Florida this spring when Montreal pitcher Josh Karp twice hit Mike Lowell with pitches, the same Lowell who had his hand broken Aug. 30 when hit by Montreal’s Hector Almonte.

Said Marlin President David Samson, perturbed enough to send a videotape of the latest incident to MLB’s New York office: “Part of the game is pitching inside, but it seems to us that [the Expos have] been hitting our players for the better part of a year and a half.”

* The Angels and A’s don’t meet until Week 3, but Oakland pitcher Mark Mulder sent a little season-opening postcard to Anaheim when he reflected on Arte Moreno’s winter shopping spree and told Bay Area reporters, “I like what Anaheim has done, but I don’t care about it. This is still our division. We’re the ones who’ve won it the last two years.”

Play ball! Or did somebody already say that in Japanese?