Some See a Challenge to Microsoft in Google’s Sites
Is Google Inc. arming itself to challenge Microsoft Corp.’s Windows software by developing an operating system that lives on the Internet?
The closely held search-engine company has been clear that its goal is to organize the world’s information. But its followers have been seeing that lofty mission statement in a whole new light since Google unveiled plans this month for a free e-mail service -- with enough storage space for every user to hoard nearly 500,000 pages of messages.
The Gmail service, combined with the enormous cluster of computers that processes the hundreds of millions of search queries that go through Google each day, has some technologists salivating over what the ambitious company may do next.
“Who needs Windows when anyone can have free unlimited access to the world’s fastest computer running the smartest operating system?” Jason Kottke, a website designer in New York, wrote in his Web log at Kottke.org.
Google executives declined to comment on their plans. “We don’t speculate about what we may or may not be thinking about in terms of projects,” said Craig Silverstein, the company’s director of technology.
By all accounts, the Mountain View, Calif., company isn’t openly gunning for Microsoft. Netscape Communications Corp., whose Web browser threatened Windows, made that mistake in the late 1990s and got smothered by Microsoft tactics that a federal judge later found violated antitrust laws.
But Google has been quietly building one of the world’s largest supercomputers, reportedly made of more than 100,000 servers. The computing system -- running on the free operating system called Linux -- is becoming a powerful platform that could be put to uses beyond simply powering the most popular search engine on the Web.
“I wouldn’t underestimate the audacity of any of the goals the Google guys have,” said Rich Skrenta, chief executive of a search engine for news called Topix.net. “They’re big thinkers.”
Google has expanded its early offerings to include searchable news feeds, comparison shopping, software for publishing Web logs, a social networking service and, now, Gmail.
Many believe Google’s next step will be to use its unmatched processing and storage capacity to invite people to house things on its network that they normally keep on their computer desktops, such as documents, digital photos, spreadsheets and songs. All those files would be accessible from any Internet-connected device and easily searchable using the technology that made Google famous.
That could mean trouble for Microsoft. The more you can do on the Internet, the less important your PC becomes. Indeed, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates has been worrying about the Internet making Windows less relevant since 1995 and has invested billions of dollars in developing new Web programs and services.
“It may be that what’s on the Internet is much more important than what’s on the desktop,” said Eric Brewer, a computer science professor at UC Berkeley and co-founder of Inktomi, the search engine company acquired by Yahoo Inc.
Microsoft executives declined to comment on the potential threat from Google or on plans of their own.
Marc Andreessen, a Netscape co-founder who serves as chairman of Opsware Inc., figures Google will boost its offering of free online storage in the next few years from 1 gigabyte for Gmail to as much as 100 gigabytes for a much wider range of PC-like services.
“It’s very logical to think Google will add these kinds of capabilities,” he said.
Others believe Google may go further. John Battelle, a co-founder of Wired magazine who is writing a book on Internet searching, said he could envision a Google word processor. Documents could be stored on Google’s servers, which would allow writers to query helpful reference sites while they type.
Kottke and Danny Sullivan, editor of Search Engine Watch, said Google should even be thinking about selling a Google PC. It could run a version of Linux with Google’s search technology built in and include an open-source alternative to the Microsoft Office suite of business software. After all, they noted, Google already sells a server computer, the Google Search Appliance, that lets firms search their internal or public websites.
Just because Google could feasibly market its own computer or desktop software doesn’t mean it will. In part, the decision depends on the success -- or failure -- of Gmail. Google plans to pay for the free e-mail storage by scanning messages, then displaying ads related to the content. Privacy advocates have criticized the practice, and it remains to be seen whether consumers will accept it.
If Google executives intend to expand their online offerings or get into the PC business, it wouldn’t be wise for them to say so and risk baiting the world’s most powerful software firm.
“If they had made that decision, it’s entirely in their best interest not to tell anybody,” Battelle said.
But the PC strategy could be an effective way for Google to counter Microsoft before the Redmond, Wash., goliath strikes at Google. Gates has vowed to best Google by building a search engine; if it were built directly into the PC desktop, searchers could find information without having to open an Internet browser and launch the Google home page.
“I’m sure the strategic wheels are turning overtime in Redmond,” Battelle said.
They should be, say observers who see Google as a potentially formidable foe precisely because it doesn’t compete in Microsoft’s traditional markets.
Microsoft executives are in position to understand that better than anyone: The software company loosened IBM Corp.’s grip on the computer business by recognizing that power rested in controlling PC operating systems, not in building computers, said Tim O’Reilly, a publisher of technical books.
“That’s one of [Google’s] powerful secret weapons,” he said. “They’re not playing by the same rules.”
