State’s Power Cushion Is Thin
California will have enough electricity for the summer, but the cushion of supplies will be thin, especially when demand peaks in August, according to the state’s grid operator.
“We are cautiously optimistic, but there isn’t nearly the margin for safety or error that would make us feel comfortable,” said Gregg Fishman, spokesman for the California Independent System Operator, which operates the power grid for about 75% of the state.
“We’re not trying to cry wolf or say the sky is falling,” Fishman said. “But it’s important for people to know that the cushion is really not very thick, and people’s habits and conservation can make a difference.”
This summer, defined as the six months from May through October, Cal-ISO expects the state to use a peak of 44,422 megawatts of power, up 4% over last summer’s peak, according to a summer outlook report released Friday by Cal-ISO. A megawatt is enough power to supply 750 to 1,000 homes.
Under typical conditions, the state’s power reserve this summer will peak in May at a relatively healthy 26%, or 5,000 megawatts, above demand and the required reserve. However, that excess will shrink to just 16.4%, or 1,615 megawatts, in August, the report said.
One major facility, such as a nuclear reactor unit, can generate as much as 1,100 megawatts, said Fishman at Cal-ISO. “So if one of those units trips off line or is unavailable for some reason, that eats into that surplus.”
Cal-ISO declares an emergency when reserves fall below 7%, triggering increasingly drastic conservation requirements as the situation worsens.
“There’s always the potential for an outage if we have more than a week of abnormally hot days throughout the state,” said Michael Shames, executive director of the Utility Consumers’ Action Network, a San Diego-based consumer group. “But I didn’t see anything in [the summer report] that was alarming.”
Shames and others remain most concerned about potential electricity shortages in California in the next few years. There aren’t enough new power plants coming on line to both replace the closure of aging plants and meet growing demand.
Summer’s outlook darkens considerably under Cal-ISO’s worst-case forecast, which assumes lengthy heat waves, wildfires that disable transmission lines and the possibility of unexpected plant shutdowns.
Under that kind of duress, the state could face shortages or blackouts, with demand soaring to as much as 49,665 megawatts and production slipping as low as 43,462 megawatts -- a deficit of 12.5%, assuming increased imports can’t come to the rescue.
