CBS, NBC talk the talk

It’s springtime in New York: Let the high-stakes posturing begin.

With billions of dollars in advertising up for grabs and the prospect of a tectonic shift in TV’s most contested night this fall, the two ultra-competitive leading broadcast networks -- led by equally competitive executives -- have begun to throw elbows. Never mind that many of the new series pilots for next season aren’t even taped yet. CBS and NBC are already in midseason form as they jockey for position in the fall ad-selling period known as the “upfront,” which kicks off one month from now in New York.

Leslie Moonves, chairman and chief executive of CBS, crowed to reporters in New York last week that “we are the future,” with the comfortable confidence of the showman he is. Moonves was smiling but not completely joking when he added that CBS had already projected it would win the ratings championship next season -- which doesn’t even start for five more months -- and that “CSI: New York,” an upcoming spinoff of its popular “CSI” franchise, will be the season’s top new scripted show when results are tallied in May of 2005.

Adding new intensity to this year’s annual upfront dance is the uncertainty that the departure of NBC’s ratings powerhouse “Friends” has cast over where viewers will be tuned in on Thursdays come September.

With “Friends’ ” exit clearly in mind, CBS officials predicted that, come next month’s upfronts, the network will challenge NBC for the first time in 20 years for the crown of “market leader” when it comes to selling next season’s ad time. They also contended that the network will be in position not only to increase the amount it charges to reach its viewers, but will also take ad dollars away from other networks, particularly on Thursday nights. This is a longtime sore spot for CBS, which boasts more viewers than any other network but still trails NBC in the younger viewers advertisers crave most -- and pay top dollar to reach.

NBC sniped back in a statement from Randy Falco, group president of NBC Television Networks, “We hear that from CBS every year. It’s getting old, just like their audience.” NBC held its own briefing Friday for reporters, but it was off the record.

Posturing is a key part of the yearly upfront lead-up, as networks try to get the best prices for shows that haven’t yet aired and advertisers try to get the lowest rates (this year by threatening to move more ad dollars to cable). With some $9.3 billion in advance, or upfront, sales booked by the six major broadcast networks last May for the 2003-04 season -- $3 billion of which went to NBC and $2.2 billion to CBS -- this gamesmanship isn’t just for show.

The competitive Moonves and NBC Entertainment President Jeff Zucker have their own legacies at stake, too, as Moonves aims to complete the turnaround of a network that was struggling when he took it over and Zucker expands his purview to include cable and news.

But, posturing aside, some see signs that this could indeed be the year NBC’s generation-long dominance of Thursday nights finally ends. Although NBC is also losing the long-running Tuesday-night series “Frasier,” much of next season’s speculating comes down to Thursday night. It’s the week’s most lucrative night for the networks, thanks to movie studios and others trying to reach the pre-weekend audience, and also the most competitive: Six of the top 10 series on all the networks air on that night.

So any changes are bound to have a profound impact, and next fall, NBC is losing “Friends,” the comedy that has sustained its Thursday-night “must-see TV” schedule dominance for a decade.

For 20 years, NBC spawned a succession of hit Thursday comedies -- from as far back as “Family Ties” and “The Cosby Show” in the early ‘80s. But for years now, NBC has tried, and failed, to find a sitcom to replace “Friends,” the latest casualty being last fall’s short-lived remake of the British hit “Coupling.”

NBC’s rivals -- CBS in particular -- looked forward to an NBC without “Friends” in high ratings places.

Yet just when it may have seemed bleakest for NBC, who stepped in to play the role of white knight but ... Donald Trump. The compete-for-a-job unscripted series he co-created and so colorfully hosts will become the centerpiece of NBC’s Thursday next fall. It has spelled the end of the “must-see TV” sitcom franchise on that night but offers the network its best shot at maintaining its dominance.

CBS’ Moonves tipped his hat to “The Apprentice” last week, noting that there is “no question it saved their bacon.” But he questioned whether what he called a “phenomenon” can continue, noting that not all reality series do well their second time around and the show won’t be able to benefit from a “Friends” lead-in next fall.

Moreover, Moonves said, NBC is unlikely to get top dollar for “Joey,” the “Friends” spinoff featuring Matt LeBlanc’s Joey Tribbiani character, also expected to air on Thursday night. CBS, meanwhile, has steadily improved its Thursday fortunes, with a lineup of “Survivor,” “CSI” and “Without a Trace.” Overall, Moonves said, “I’m feeling more confident than I ever have.”

NBC, looking at the 28 million viewers who tuned in to last week’s two-hour “Apprentice” finale -- and the third-highest 18-to-49-year-old audience on any network this season -- said it’s not worried.

Zucker, in an interview, said Thursday “is not up in the air.” If anything, he said, NBC will be stronger next season on that night because “Friends,” a half-hour show, aired only a reduced 18 original episodes this season, or nine hours, while “The Apprentice” is an hourlong show and will have two 16-episode cycles, or 32 episodes.

“The Apprentice,” he said, “was a game changer.” NBC executives aren’t concerned, either, that the show won’t do well on a second go-around. For one, ratings increased in the show’s last few weeks, and what Zucker called “late adopters” can be expected to tune in for the second cycle, he said. Moreover, the show’s producer, Mark Burnett, has proven he can extend the life of unscripted series, having already done so with CBS’ “Survivor.”

Zucker declined to take CBS’ bait on the sales front, saying that he wouldn’t discuss the pre-upfront advertising outlook and CBS’ aggressive attack on one of NBC’s key selling points of recent years, its appeal to upper-income 18-to-49-year-olds.

CBS executives last week portrayed the young end of that demographic as a less desirable audience, because they live at home and depend on their parents to buy them cars and other consumer goods. “It’s the most bogus statistic out there,” said David Poltrack, CBS’ executive vice president of research and planning.

Yet for all their grand ambitions, both networks come back to the unsexy but advertiser-friendly notion of schedule stability. So one of Moonves’ main selling points is that only a possible four hours of CBS’ 22-hour schedule is under consideration for new programs. Zucker, who’d otherwise resisted any notion of one-upmanship, noted NBC is looking to change only 3 1/2 hours.

It’s not the kind of argument to mess up Donald Trump’s hair, or prompt “Survivor All-Stars” contestant Richard Hatch to remove his clothes again, but in the big-bucks game of selling ads, it could be the most persuasive.